MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-15 18:54:35

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Philadelphia at NY Mets

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Harang (FD: $7500, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.57 / xFIP: 4.03 / SIERA: 4.18
K/9: 7.09 / K%: 0.184 / BB%: 0.081
NYM vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Harang looked sharp in his first start of the season, striking out eight batters without giving up a single run. He actually only gave up three baserunners in 6.1 innings. He got off to a quick start in 2014 as well, so there may be some merit to using him in a favorable pitching matchup against the Mets. The Mets were one of the worst hitting teams at home last season thanks to Citi Field being ranked among the top pitcher’s parks in baseball. Harang provides decent strikeout potential, as he had a 7.1 K/9 with a strikeout rate of 18.4% in 2014. Rating = 6.5

Jacob deGrom (FD: $8900, DK: $9000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.69 / xFIP: 3.03 / SIERA: 3.19
K/9: 9.24 / K%: 0.255 / BB%: 0.076
PHI vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 17

Analysis: DeGrom gave up a two-run homer in the first inning of his first start of the season and the Mets weren’t able to give him enough run support after that. DeGrom settled in nicely after the first inning though, as he didn’t give up another run the rest of the game. DeGrom is one of the top young pitchers in baseball and he boasts an elite strikeout rate. In 2014, he had a 9.2 K/9 with a strikeout rate of 25.5%. DeGrom is not priced as a top pitching option just yet, making him a very strong play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Chase Utley (FD: $3200, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.144

NY Mets

David Wright (FD: $3700, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.269 / wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.105
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.283 / ISO: 0.094

Analysis: I’ll probably mention this a few times throughout the season, but I generally don’t factor in BvP in my daily decision making. Every once in a while there is a BvP stat that catches my eye though. Wright is 12/28 with 5 extra-base hits and 6 walks against Aaron Harang in his career, which equates to an on-base percentage of .514. Wright does hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching, but his price point puts him in play in the short morning slate.

Secondary Plays:

Lucas Duda (FD: $3400, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.394 / ISO: 0.27

Daniel Murphy (FD: $3000, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.328 / ISO: 0.12

Detroit at Pittsburgh

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez (FD: $8900, DK: $8200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.43 / xFIP: 3.56 / SIERA: 3.64
K/9: 7.29 / K%: 0.198 / BB%: 0.058
PIT vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 14

Analysis: Sanchez got off to a quick start this season, posting six shutout innings while striking out six batters against the Twins. He also threw over 100 pitches which was nice to see. Sanchez is coming off of a down season in 2014, but he still finished with a respectable 3.56 xFIP and a 7.3 K/9. He will look to improve on those numbers this season. The Tigers will start their interleague series with the Pirates on Monday, which means Sanchez will get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup. Vegas has this game as a pick-em, so the win may be hard to come by, but Sanchez deserves consideration as an SP2. Rating = 7

Gerrit Cole (FD: $8800, DK: $8600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.65 / xFIP: 3.25 / SIERA: 3.23
K/9: 9 / K%: 0.242 / BB%: 0.07
DET vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 5

Analysis: Cole is coming off of a terrific 2014 campaign. He finished the season with a 3.25 xFIP and a 9.0 K/9. He also had an elite strikeout rate of 24.2%, while only walking 7% of the batters that he faced. He draws a tough matchup against the Tigers on Monday, but at least he gets to face them in a National League park under National League rules. Victor Martinez won’t be able to DH here, so there is a good chance that he will serve as a pinch hitter in at least one or two of the games in this series. Cole will likely get overlooked, but he also deserves consideration as an SP2. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4800, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203

Anthony Gose (FD: $3100, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.074

Pittsburgh

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen (FD: $4700, DK: $5000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.415 / ISO: 0.225

Neil Walker (FD: $3600, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.222

Washington at Boston

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann (FD: $9900, DK: $8400)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.66 / xFIP: 3.1 / SIERA: 3.15
K/9: 8.2 / K%: 0.228 / BB%: 0.036
BOS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 24

Analysis: Zimmermann pitched well in his first start of the season. While he only struck out four batters, he only gave up one run to the Mets in six innings of work. Zimmermann is a pitcher that throws a ton of strikes, which helps his ability to pitch deep into games. Last season, he had a strikeout rate of 22.8%, while walking only 3.6% of the batters that he faced. He would typically be a strong play under most circumstances, but he has to face an American League lineup in an American League ballpark. The Red Sox are a very capable offense and this is not a spot where I want to pay up for Zimmermann. Rating = 6

Rick Porcello (FD: $7700, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.43 / xFIP: 3.68 / SIERA: 3.88
K/9: 5.67 / K%: 0.154 / BB%: 0.049
WAS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Porcello doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate, but he’s a quality pitcher. He finished 2014 with a 3.68 xFIP and a 5.7 K/9. He keeps his walks down, as he managed to walk less than 5% of the batters that he faced last season. Porcello may not have the upside of some of the other pitching options, but he’s a decent value play against a Nationals’ lineup that is missing Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span. Porcello is actually a very small favorite in this game. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Bryce Harper (FD: $4000, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.273 / wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.144

Analysis: Porcello’s biggest weakness is left-handed hitters. In 2014, he gave up a .320 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper posted a .338 wOBA and a .144 ISO against right-handed pitching in what was a down season last year. Harper is off to a hot start this season, as he has already hit two home-runs. Harper also sees a ballpark boost here, as Fenway Park ranks as one of the friendliest parks to left-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3500, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.179

Michael Taylor (FD: $2600, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.067

Boston

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $4000, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.156

David Ortiz (FD: $3800, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.248

Pablo Sandoval (FD: $3000, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.144

Kansas City at Minnesota

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy (FD: $7500, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.53 / xFIP: 4.42 / SIERA: 4.31
K/9: 6.81 / K%: 0.187 / BB%: 0.088
MIN vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Duffy is one of those pitchers that had a great defense and a lot of luck last season. He finished with an ERA that was nearly two runs lower than both his xFIP and his SIERA. Duffy has a respectable strikeout rate of 18.7%, but he tends to walk a few too many batters for my liking (8.8%). Duffy is a small favorite against the Twins, but this game has a high total set at 8.5 rund. The Twins offense is actually much better than most people give them credit for. Duffy will throw a gem every now and then, I just have a hard time seeing that gem coming today against the Twins. Rating = 5.5

Trevor May (FD: $5600, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 7.88 / xFIP: 4.38 / SIERA: 4.2
K/9: 8.67 / K%: 0.207 / BB%: 0.103
KC vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 20 / K% Rank: 1

Analysis: With Ricky Nolasco injured, the Twins have called up Trevor May for Monday’s start against the Royals. May was very pedestrian in his nine starts last season, posting a 4.38 xFIP. He did have a decent strikeout rate of 20.7%, but he also walked 10.3% of the batters that he faced. He’ll likely have a very tough time racking up strikeouts against a Royals’ team that struck out fewer times than any other team in baseball last year. May is cheap, but in most cases in daily fantasy, you get what you pay for. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Mike Moustakas (FD: $2900, DK: $3600)

BA: 0.212 / wOBA: 0.281 / ISO: 0.149
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 / ISO: 0.151

Analysis: Moustakas is my favorite play at third base in the morning slate of games. Not only is he off to a great start this season, but he’s hitting in the two-hole in the Royals’ lineup. Moustakas has good power against right-handed pitching, as he registered a .151 ISO last season. In his first six games of the season, Moustakas is batting .333 with three extra-base hits. Take advantage of the cheap price while you still can.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon (FD: $3300, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.345 / ISO: 0.154

Eric Hosmer (FD: $3700, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.132

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $3600, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.318 / ISO: 0.092

Minnesota

Danny Santana (FD: $3000, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.319 / wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.153
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 / ISO: 0.146

Analysis: Santana is a switch-hitter that hits well from both sides of the plate. He finished 2014 with a .345 wOBA against left-handed pitching. He also showed great power for a leadoff hitter, as he had an ISO of .146 against southpaws. Santana is priced fairly on DraftKings, but he is still a little too cheap on FanDuel. He’s in a good spot against Danny Duffy and the Royals.

Secondary Plays:

Trevor Plouffe (FD: $2600, DK: $4000) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.152

Kennys Vargas (FD: $2500, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.264 / ISO: 0.087

Milwaukee at St. Louis

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza (FD: $7700, DK: $7100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.64 / xFIP: 3.88 / SIERA: 4.02
K/9: 6.94 / K%: 0.185 / BB%: 0.074
STL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 20 / K% Rank: 4

Analysis: Garza pitched about as well as he was expected to in his first start of the season. He gave up four runs in five innings of work against the Rockies. Garza is not the elite strikeout pitcher that he was a few years back. He averaged under seven strikeouts per nine innings last season and should have a similar number of strikeouts this season. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid against the Cardinals, who have their ace on the mound in Adam Wainwright. Rating = 4.5

Adam Wainwright (FD: $9600, DK: $9500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.38 / xFIP: 3.34 / SIERA: 3.52
K/9: 7.1 / K%: 0.199 / BB%: 0.056
MIL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 8

Analysis: Wainwright looked sharp in his first start of the season, throwing six shutout innings against the Cubs on Opening Night. Wainwright struck out six batters in that start, while only giving up six baserunners. We saw a dip in Wainwright’s strikeout numbers toward the end of last season, but we shouldn’t be too concerned, as long as he picks it up to start this season. Wainwright has always pitched well at home and Vegas has him pegged as a -175 favorite against the Brewers. He is right there with deGrom as the top pitching option in the early slate of games. Rating = 8.5

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NO SECONDAY PLAYS

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter (FD: $3800, DK: $4200)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.339 / ISO: 0.103
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.104

Analysis: Carpenter may not have as much power as some of the other options at third base, but he did have a .343 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Carpenter may not have a ton of home runs or steals, but he’s capable of both. He draws a favorable matchup against a very hittable Matt Garza. The Cardinals’ offense is actually in a very good spot here.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Adams (FD: $3300, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.367 / ISO: 0.187

Yadier Molina (FD: $3000, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.085

Jhonny Peralta (FD: $2800, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.332 / ISO: 0.172

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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