MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-08 19:06:39

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any fantasy point average listed uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

After months of waiting, the start of the MLB season is finally here! We will look to continue to improve the MLB Grind Down throughout the season, so if there is anything that you’d like to see, feel free to comment at the bottom of the page.

Toronto at NY Yankees

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Hutchison (FD: $7400, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 4.48 / xFIP: 3.82 / SIERA: 3.59
K/9: 8.97 / K%: 0.234 / BB%: 0.076
NYY vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 22 / K% Rank: 5

Analysis: Hutchison will look to improve on his 2014 campaign, where he posted a 4.48 ERA (3.82 xFIP) and an impressive K/9 of 8.9. He beat out Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey as Blue Jays’ starter on opening day. With all of the other aces on the mound on Monday, he’s a below average fantasy option. Yankee Stadium is a hitter-friendly ballpark, especially to left-handed hitters. Hutchison gave up a .353 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. The strikeout potential is there, but I don’t expect him to pitch well here.

Masahiro Tanaka (FD: $9100, DK: $9700)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.77 / xFIP: 2.58 / SIERA: 2.67
K/9: 9.31 / K%: 0.26 / BB%: 0.039
TOR vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 2 / K% Rank: 7

Analysis: Tanaka’s elbow has held up through the Spring, but he’s admitted himself that he has had to change his pitching style, as he is pitching through a partially torn UCL. Tanaka’s velocity is down and we can expect that to hurt his strikeout potential. Tanaka didn’t look great in the Spring and while he may be saving his best for the regular season, that’s not a risk that we should be willing to take on opening day. He draws a tough matchup against a stacked Blue Jays’ offense.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Reyes (FD: $3900, DK: $4400)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.111
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.115

Analysis: Tanaka held left-handed and right-handed batters under a .305 wOBA last season, but again, this is not the same Tanaka. Reyes has had one of the highest batting averages of any player over the last few years and he should get off to a hot start in 2015. Yankee Stadium is one of the best ballparks for left-handed hitters and Reyes gives you the added bonus of a potential stolen base.

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4600, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.392 / ISO: 0.291

Jose Bautista (FD: $4800, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.227

NY Yankees

Brian McCann (FD: $3300, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.232 / wOBA: 0.306 / ISO: 0.174
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 / ISO: 0.151

Analysis: As mentioned above, Hutchison’s biggest weakness last season was facing batters from the left side of the plate. He gave up a .353 wOBA to left-handed hitters. McCann is one of the top options at catcher, especially if you are looking for a player in that mid-range of pricing. McCann was one of the most hated players in daily fantasy baseball last season, so maybe he can right the ship by getting off to a quick start in 2015.

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4100, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.327 / ISO: 0.148
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.137

Analysis: Ellsbury was one of the few left-handed hitters that had a higher average and wOBA against left-handed pitching than he did against right-handed pitching last season. Historically, he has hit right-handed pitching very well, though. He’s a high on-base player that steals plenty of bases. He also benefits from playing in Yankee Stadium, as he can knock one into the short porch in right every now and then. Ellsbury makes a strong cash game option against Hutchison.

Secondary Plays:

Brett Gardner (FD: $3300, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.340 / ISO: 0.197

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3400, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.320 / ISO: 0.199

Minnesota at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Phil Hughes (FD: $8400, DK: $8100)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.52 / xFIP: 3.18 / SIERA: 3.17
K/9: 7.98 / K%: 0.218 / BB%: 0.019
DET vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 5

Analysis: Hughes had a resurgent season with the Twins last year. He finished with a 3.52 ERA (3.18 xFIP) and a respectable K/9 of 8.0. He has had a rough Spring, but we shouldn’t be too concerned with that. What we should be concerned with is his matchup against the Tigers. They bring back an impressive offense in 2015 led by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Last season the Tigers were ranked in the top ten in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching and wOBA at home. The time for us to use Hughes will come, just not on opening day.

David Price (FD: $10600, DK: $10400)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.26 / xFIP: 2.76 / SIERA: 2.72
K/9: 9.82 / K%: 0.269 / BB%: 0.038
MIN vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: If you are new to daily fantasy baseball, you will quickly learn one thing about Price. He throws strikes and he throws a TON of them. Throwing strikes helps his K/9 as well as his ability to pitch deep into games. Price had a good season in 2014, finishing with a 3.26 ERA. He actually pitched a little better than that though, as his xFIP and SIERA were both well below 3.00. The biggest concern with Price is the defense behind him. They were one of the worst defenses in the majors last season. Even though his defense is a concern, Price is still a top-five fantasy option at pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier (FD: $3500, DK: $4000) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.203

Trevor Plouffe (FD: $2900, DK: $3600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.152

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4,900, DK: $5000)

BA: 0.313 / wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.211
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203

Analysis: If there is one statistic that gets people fired up in daily fantasy baseball, it’s BvP. I’m not a huge BvP fan, but I certainly don’t rule it out, especially if it supports a play that I’m already targeting. The reason that I bring it up is because Cabrera has owned Hughes throughout his career. In 31 at-bats against Hughes, he is 16/31 with 5 home runs and 4 doubles. Cabrera has always hit well at Comerica Park and he hits both left-handed and right-handed pitching well.

Victor Martinez (FD: $, DK: $4400)

BA: 0.335 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.23
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.39 / ISO: 0.199

Analysis: Martinez had a terrific season in 2014, finishing with a .335 batting average, a .411 weight on-base average, and a .230 ISO. He is a switch hitter that hits well from both sides of the plate. He’s one of the toughest batters to strike out in the entire majors and he should get off to a quick start here in 2015. Hughes has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career, but that certainly doesn’t mean that we have to avoid Martinez against him.

Secondary Plays:

J.D. Martinez (FD: $3800, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.379 / ISO: 0.205

Ian Kinsler (FD: $4100, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.144

San Diego at LA Dodgers

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields (FD: $9200, DK: $8900)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.21 / xFIP: 3.56 / SIERA: 3.59
K/9: 7.14 / K%: 0.192 / BB%: 0.047
LAD vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 13

Analysis: This will be Shields’ first start with his new ball club. The move from the American League to the National League should help him improve his numbers, especially considering the fact that half of his starts are going to come in Petco. Shields is one of the biggest underdogs on opening day, because he has the unfortunate task of facing Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. The chance of him picking up a win is very small. There are better options at his price point.

Clayton Kershaw (FD: $11700, DK: $12400)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 1.77 / xFIP: 2.08 / SIERA: 2.09
K/9: 10.85 / K%: 0.319 / BB%: 0.041
SD vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 30 / K% Rank: 25

Analysis: The reigning NL Cy Young and reigning NL MVP takes the mound for the Dodgers on opening day. Kershaw had a fantastic 2014 campaign, posing a 1.77 ERA (2.08 xFIP) with a K/9 of 10.8. He had a 32% strikeout rate, while only walking 4% of the batters that he faced. That’s extremely tough to do for a high-strikeout pitcher. Kershaw is easily the top fantasy option on Monday and as you will soon find out, his price point isn’t high enough for the type of production that he offers. The Padres have an improved offense, but they are going to look a lot like the 2014 Padres, at least on opening day.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

None – Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. Don’t overthink this one – AVOID THE PADRES.

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $4200, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.276 / wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.206
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.236

Analysis: In 2014, Shields gave up nearly identical splits to batters from both sides of the plate. We can’t get an advantage there, but Gonzalez really hits right-handed pitching well. Last season, he posted a .384 wOBA and a .236 ISO against righties. Gonzalez is one of the few players that hits for average and for power. His price point is reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he should have an opportunity or two to knock in some runs.

Secondary Plays:

Yasiel Puig (FD: $4100, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.393 / ISO: 0.209

Jimmy Rollins (FD: $3600, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.161

Colorado at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Kendrick (FD: $6600, DK: $4200)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 4.61 / xFIP: 4.35 / SIERA: 4.45
K/9: 5.47 / K%: 0.14 / BB%: 0.066
MIL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 8

Analysis: Kendrick is arguably the worst starter on opening day. He posted very pedestrian numbers in 2014, finishing with a 4.61 ERA (4.35 xFIP) and a low K/9 of 5.5. He is a large underdog in a game that features a run total of 8.5 runs. He offers little upside in terms of strikeouts and the potential for a blow-up outing is great. His first start with the Rockies will be just that: ROCKY. Avoid Kendrick and heavily target the Milwaukee bats.

Kyle Lohse (FD: $7500, DK: $7100)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.54 / xFIP: 4.05 / SIERA: 4.04
K/9: 6.4 / K%: 0.173 / BB%: 0.055
COL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 1 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Lohse is one of those pitchers that always flies under the radar in daily fantasy baseball. He records a lot of outs, but he doesn’t rack up the strikeouts like the top pitchers in DFS. He finished last season with a 3.54 ERA and a K/9 of 6.4. He draws a fairly tough matchup against a powerful Rockies’ offense, but Colorado does lose some of its bite outside of Coors Field. Lohse should get plenty of run support here and he could very well be in line for the win when he turns it over to the bullpen. He may be worth a look on FanDuel, as he could be a cheap source of a win.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4400, DK: $5000)

BA: 0.34 / wOBA: 0.444 / ISO: 0.263
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 / ISO: 0.207

Analysis: Tulowitzki seems to be one of everyone’s favorite players in daily fantasy baseball. He has the potential to have those multi-home run type of games that can be the difference between winning and losing. Tulowitzki had a .404 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and he could see a few opportunities to knock in some runs on opening day. Miller Park has always been known as a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3900, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.238 / wOBA: 0.315 / ISO: 0.192
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.22

Analysis: Gonzalez has one of the sweetest swings in the majors. Hopefully he can stay healthy this season, as the Rockies’ offense could really put up a ton of runs if he does. Gonzalez hit 9 of his 11 home runs off of right-handed pitching in 2014 and 18 of his 26 home runs off of right-handed pitching in 2013. He may be able to connect on one against Lohse, who as mentioned above, is not a high-strikeout pitcher.

Secondary Plays:

Corey Dickerson (FD: $3900, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.419 / ISO: 0.278

Charlie Blackmon (FD: $3400, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.35 / ISO: 0.158

Milwaukee

Aramis Ramirez (FD: $3400, DK: $4200)

BA: 0.285 / wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.142
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 / ISO: 0.102

Analysis: There really aren’t any bad targets in the Brewers’ lineup on opening day. They draw the best matchup on the board, as Kyle Kendrick is a very mediocre pitcher. Don’t be afraid to load up on the Milwaukee bats, especially the cheaper ones. Ramirez has gotten off to a slow start in the Spring, but he should have plenty of RBI opportunities on opening day. At his price point, he is one of the top targets at third base.

Scooter Gennett (FD: $3000, DK: $3800)

BA: 0.289 / wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.145
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 / ISO: 0.157

Analysis: Gennett is one of my favorite players in daily fantasy baseball. He doesn’t hit left-handed pitching all that well, but he’s one of those players that you can count on in favorable matchups against right-handed pitching. Gennett had a .346 wOBA against righties last season and he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gomez (FD: $4300, DK: $5000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.368 / ISO: 0.187

Ryan Braun (FD: $4100, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.169

Jonathan Lucroy (FD: $3800, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.166

Adam Lind (FD: $2800, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.41 / ISO: 0.179

LA Angels at Seattle

Pitcher Grind Down

Jered Weaver (FD: $8500, DK: $7500)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.59 / xFIP: 4.3 / SIERA: 4.18
K/9: 7.13 / K%: 0.19 / BB%: 0.073
SEA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 16

Analysis: Weaver has seen a drop in his velocity over the past few years, but he is still a productive pitcher in the majors. In 2014, he finished with a 3.59 ERA (4.3 xFIP) and a K/9 of 7.1. His biggest weakness last season was against batters from the left side of the plate. That should come into play against the Mariners, as they will have a left-handed heavy lineup. It also hurts that Weaver will likely see very little run support, as the Angels’ offense has to face Felix Hernandez.

Felix Hernandez (FD: $11200, DK: $11000)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.14 / xFIP: 2.51 / SIERA: 2.5
K/9: 9.46 / K%: 0.272 / BB%: 0.05
LAA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 18

Analysis: King Felix had an outstanding 2014 campaign, finishing with a 2.14 ERA (2.51 xFIP) and a K/9 of 9.5. Like Kershaw, the most impressive part may be the fact that he hardly ever walks a batter (walk rate of 5% in 2014). The Angels do have a fairly potent offense, but that shouldn’t be a big issue for Hernandez, especially considering the fact that this game will be played in Safeco, where he has dominated in his career. Kershaw is the better play of the two, but both are strong options on Opening Day.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

None – Same thought process here that we had with the Padres against Clayton Kershaw. Why target hitters against one of the best pitchers in baseball?

Seattle

Kyle Seager (FD: $3700, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.268 / wOBA: 0.346 / ISO: 0.186
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 / ISO: 0.221

Analysis: The best times to target Seager are when he 1. is at home and 2. is facing a right-handed pitcher. Seager hit 16 of his 25 home runs at home last season and had a .376 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He gets both of those in his favor against Weaver on opening day.

Robinson Cano (FD: $4500, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.314 / wOBA: 0.361 / ISO: 0.139
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.166

Analysis: Cano didn’t put up the same power numbers that he did when he was on the Yankees, but he still had a solid 2014 campaign, finishing the season with a .314 batting average and a .361 weight on-base average. He hits right-handed pitching well and he’s been fairly successful against Weaver in his career: 15/40 with 2 walks.

Secondary Plays:

Dustin Ackley (FD: $3000, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.33 / ISO: 0.182

Logan Morrison (FD: $2800, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.163

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