MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 18th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-04-21 14:56:55

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Philadelphia at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Harang – Harang has pitched well in his first two starts of the season. He went six innings against a solid Boston lineup and went another six against the Mets in his last start. He is never going to blow you away with his strikeout numbers (career 7.26 K/9) but could be relied on as a number two starter at sites that allow for multiple pitchers, as he has the park advantage today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7600 FanDuel, $6400 DraftKings, $5500 FantasyAces, $11450 DraftDay, $91200 Fantasy Feud

Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmerman is coming off getting rocked for seven earned runs and eight total runs over only 2.1 innings pitched. In his defense, he did pitch against one of the best offensive teams in the league in Boston. He will have a much better matchup today against the Phillies who are 29th in the league in runs scored so far this year and have an overall wOBA of .273. I expect a bounce back here today and for Zimmerman to pitch well today. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9900 FD, $8700 DK, $6500 FA, $15150 DD, $134600 FF

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

Chase Utley

Washington

Bryce Harper – Although Harper has not hit for a high average to start the year, he has gotten on base in each of his last five games and does have a two home runs so far . He has a great matchup against Harang who allowed a wOBA of .330 against lefties in 2014. Harper should be a solid position for RBI opportunities this afternoon.

Secondary Plays:

Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond

Atlanta at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood – Wood has been decent over his first two starts of the season going at least five innings in each and allowing three earned runs or less in each. There are a few warning signs as he has faced two poor offenses and has a walk rate of 4.63 BB/9. Wood does have solid strikeout numbers over his career as he has a 8.90 K/9, which always comes in handy for daily fantasy. With all that said, he has one of the toughest matchups on the board today and should be ignored. Rating = 3

Salaries: $8300 FD, $8600 DK, $6750 FA, $15600 DD, $96900 FF

R.A. Dickey – Dickey had a solid year in 2014 and has come back this year with a few solid outings against some decent teams. He has gone at least six innings in both of his starts, but is hampered by eight total walks in those two starts. If he can get his control back and his walk rate down to his career average of less than three per nine, he should look to have another decent year with a big time offense behind him. The run support should be here and the matchup is great against the Braves. who are not the scariest of offenses. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $8000 DK, $6000 FA, $12600 DD, $114500 FF

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman is nicely priced (FD) and has a solid matchup at Rogers Centre today. While BvP is not a great thing to target, when you are talking about a knuckleballer, I do think it has relevance. Freeman is 10/21 off of Dickey with two home runs.

Secondary Plays:

A.J Pierzynski, Nick Markakis

Toronto

Jose Bautista/Edwin Encarnacion – Both of these guys have had very slow starts to the season and are still priced very high across the industry. It is just a matter of time before they start mashing, and today might be the day against Wood, who allows a wOBA of .347 against righties. This has one of the higher over/unders of the early slate and one or both of these guys should have a solid game.

Secondary Plays:

Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson

Chicago White Sox at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale – Sale only missed one early season start and came back to hold the Twins to only one run and five hits in a six-inning outing. Everything seemed to look great for Sale as he dominated the Minnesota lineup and struck out eight batters. He does, however, have a tough matchup today against the Tigers’ offense that can put up runs in any matchup. Yet, in 2014 against this Tigers team, Sale only allowed five earned runs over 20 innings and struck out 33 batters. With the matchup, Sale gets a bit of a bump down, but should still be in line for a great start. Rating = 7

Salaries: $10400 FD, $10500 DK, $7750 FA, $21300 DD, $153900 FF

Anibal Sanchez – Anibal pitched great in his first start and was rolling along again in his second start until giving up three runs in the seventh. He will look to bounce back from that performance today against the Sox in a matchup that might not feature the run support Sanchez is used too. The strikeouts continue to be there for Sanchez as he had nine and six in his first two starts. Sanchez is a GPP play for me today due to his high strikeout ability, but the lack of run support and inconsistencies at times puts him as a tournament play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8800 FD, $8200 DK, $6250 FA, $16050 DD, $117800 FF

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Adam Eaton – Eaton was one of my favorite daily targets last year against righties. He will bat leadoff, has a low price tag and had a wOBA of .344 against them. He has started off the year very slowly, but that has just dropped his price tag to a very reasonable point.

Secondary Plays:

Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu

Detroit

Victor Martinez – The Detroit bats are basically tournament plays only today against Sale who can shut down any offense. Sale is a small underdog today with a total of 7, which leads me to believe some runs will get across today. Martinez should be back in the lineup this afternoon against lefties that he loved to hit against last year. He had one of the highest wOBAs in the league against lefties last year with a .476.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera

Cleveland at Minnesota

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Salazar – Salazar is in line to get his first start of the season this year as the Indians are in need of some starting pitching due to injury. Salazar is always going to have strikeout stuff as he struck out batters at a 25% clip last year. Yet, as we saw in the beginning of the season, he still may have some growing pains to go through. He ended last year with a 4.25 ERA and a sold xFIP of 3.45 to back it up. I like Salazar a bit better in this matchup, but Vegas does have him as a small underdog with a total of 8. This hampers my expectations a bit this afternoon, but Salazar is still a solid tournament play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $7700 DK, $6500 FA, $13500 DD, $ FF

Phil Hughes – The man who never walks anyone will take the field today against the Indians. Hughes has not pitched his greatest in his first two starts against some solid competition in the White Sox and the Tigers. He has given up eight hits in each outing as well as three home runs overall. He will look to have a better outing against a tough Indians squad that is usually lefty heavy, which shouldn’t affect Hughes much as he gave up a wOBA of .272 to lefties last year. He makes a decent second starter today, but I am not totally sold on his overall fantasy production. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $7900 DK, $6500 FA, $14400 DD, $127800 FF

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis – Kipnis is always a solid play against righties and has a decent matchup today against Hughes. Although Hughes had some reverse splits, Kipnis has a decent price this afternoon (FD) and makes a decent play at the second base position.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Salazar is another guy who gave up a higher wOBA to righties than lefties last season. Enter Dozier into the conversation this afternoon. At second base, it is a battle between playing these two guys in this game, and even though I would give the slight edge to Kipnis, Dozier makes a solid play as well. He should be back in the cleanup spot again this afternoon and if Vegas is right, should be in line for a few opportunities with runners on the base paths today.

Secondary Plays:

Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas

Cincinnati at St. Louis

Pitcher Grind Down

Homer Bailey – Homer Bailey will also come off the DL to make his first start of the season today. Bailey is coming off a tough 2014 season that saw his ERA, FIP and xFIP all drop after posting decent numbers in 2013. To go along with this, his K rate dropped to under eight per nine innings, while his walks increased to close to three per nine. With all this said, we don’t exactly know what we are going to get with Bailey today, and with a difficult matchup against some solid lefties, Homer can be avoided. Rating = 4

Salaries: $8700 FD, $8500 DK, $6550 FA, $14600 DD, $ FF

Carlos Martinez – Martinez got his first start of the year and was solid over six innings of four-hit ball. The only problem was the fact that two of those hits were solo home runs, but he returned value striking out eight batters, while not getting a decision. If Martinez can continue to keep his walk rate down this year, he does show a lot of potential for the Cardinals. He has a decent matchup today against the Reds and makes an average play for me today. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7900 FD, $6800 DK, $4750 FA, $8500 DD, $75000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

No elite plays

Secondary Plays:

Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Carpenter and the Cardinals could have a chance to get to Bailey early today. Bailey has really struggled against this Cardinals’ lineup in the past, has a .334 wOBA against lefties, and will be facing a few real solid ones today. Carpenter, Heyward and Adams are all in play this afternoon, while Carpenter should be the best cash game play along with Adams.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Adams, Jason Heyward

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