MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-13 16:58:59

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati

Tampa Bay					Cincinnati
Cesar Ramos		Vegas Moneyline			Tony Cingrani		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CIN (-135)			LEFT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.273	0.669	0.307	19.8%	SP vs. Left	0.183	0.510	0.235	29.6%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.659	0.303	17.7%	SP vs. Right	0.194	0.665	0.300	28.7%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs L		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

We had a fun discussion in the comments of yesterday’s Grind Down. Let me start today by saying that I do not heavily rely on BvP stats to predict future performance and most of the daily fantasy experts agree whole heartedly. Sure, if the sample size is big enough they may have some merit, but it’s hard to trust a statistic that features far less than 1% of a player’s at-bats and has been accumulated over 10 years in some cases. I will use splits, ballpark factors, and current performance over a tired stat like BvP any day of the week.

That said, the great part about daily fantasy baseball is that there are numerous stats that you can use and at the end of the day, you are the one that can build your own team. I love doing the Grind Down for my readers each day, but I don’t need to hear that _______ is a bad play because he is 2/10 off of a certain pitcher. C’MON MAN!

Pitcher Grind Down

• Cesar Ramos – Ramos has come out of the bullpen for the Rays in each of the last 3 seasons and draws only his second start since 2012. It’s hard to rely on his numbers as a relief pitcher as it is a lot different pitching one or two innings of relief compared to being the starter. Vegas has Ramos as a +125 favorite and I don’t love the matchup against the Reds in Great American. If you can find him for minimum salary, you could plug him in as a tournament play, but other than that he should be avoided. Rating = 3

• Tony Cingrani – Cingrani is a very high strikeout pitcher with a ton of upside. Last season he posted a 2.92 ERA with a K/9 of 10.4. While the Rays do hit LH pitching well as a team, Cingrani pitched well in this ballpark last season and should get some run support with Ramos on the mound opposite him. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

• Additional Plays: None

Cincinnati

• Brandon Phillips – Over the last 3 seasons, Phillips has had an OPS of .746 against LH pitching. He will be batting in the 3 hole today against Ramos who gave up a .303 wOBA to RH batters out of the bullpen last season.

• Todd Frazier – Frazier has always had great power numbers against LH pitching and has always loved playing at Great American. 12 of his 19 HR’s came at home last season and he hit 9 HR’s off of LH pitching.

• Additional Plays: Ryan Ludwick

Toronto at Baltimore

Toronto					Baltimore
Mark Buehrle		Vegas Moneyline			Ubaldo Jimenez		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		BAL (-110)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.251	0.685	0.315	15.4%	SP vs. Left	0.224	0.660	0.297	28.2%
SP vs. Right	0.282	0.749	0.331	16.8%	SP vs. Right	0.266	0.728	0.327	20.6%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mark Buehrle – Neither of these pitchers look like great fantasy options tonight. After these two teams failed to get anything going offensively last night, I’m expected a much better performance this time around. Buehrle posted a 4.94 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP on the road last season and is a small underdog in a game that features a run total of 8.5 runs. His K/9 of 6.2 last season just isn’t enough to overcome his bad matchup. Rating = 4

• Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo is the better play of these two pitchers because he does have a much higher K-rate. Last season Ubaldo posted a 3.30 ERA with a K/9 of 9.6. That said, Ubaldo did get off to a very slow start last season and appears to be off to another slow start this year. In his two starts, he has only managed to pitch 10 innings while giving up 8 earned runs. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

• Dioner Navarro – If you are looking for a cheap catcher to roster, switch-hitting Navarro looks like a nice play today against Ubaldo. Navarro typically bats in the heart of the order and leads the team in RBI’s this season with 7. He can hit RH and LH pitching well.

• Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus

Baltimore

• Matt Wieters – Wieters draws most of his power from the right side of the plate. Last season he hit for a .282 average against LH pitching and had just as many HR’s (11) as he did against RH pitching even though he saw less than half the number of at-bats.

• Adam Jones – Buehrle has really struggled against RH bats in his career so make sure to target a batter or two from the right side of the plate. Buehrle gave up a .331 wOBA and a .749 OPS to RH batters last season and Jones has always hit well in Camden Yards.

• Additional Plays: Delmon Young

Washington at Atlanta

Washington					Atlanta
Gio Gonzalez		Vegas Moneyline			Aaron Harang		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		WAS (-126)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.203	0.553	0.250	27.7%	SP vs. Left	0.253	0.775	0.340	15.1%
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.677	0.305	22.4%	SP vs. Right	0.259	0.725	0.322	22.3%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Gio Gonzalez – Gio has really pitched well in the early going this season. In his two starts he has posted a 0.75 ERA with 11 K’s over 12 innings pitched. Gio is a small favorite (-125) today against the Braves, but his numbers have dipped away from Nationals Park. That said, Gio’s impressive K/9 of 8.8 last season puts him in play for all leagues today. Rating = 8

• Aaron Harang – Harang has really pitched well in his first two starts of the season. Over 12 innings of work, he has struck out 12 batters and has only given up 1 earned run. Granted, one of those games were against the Mets, but those are still very good numbers for Harang. He comes in as a small underdog today against the Nationals who hit RH pitching very well. While he’s not the worst pitching option available, there are pitchers that I like more at his price point. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Washington

• Bryce Harper – Harper got off to a slow start this season, but is currently riding a 5 game hitting streak and he is getting on base in different ways. He’s now reached on two bunt singles in the past two games. Harang gave up a .340 wOBA and a .775 OPS to LH batters last season and Harper should be targeted in all leagues.

• Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon

Atlanta

• Additional Plays: None

Miami at Philadelphia

Miami					Philadelphia
Henderson Alvarez		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-131)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.751	0.338	10.6%	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.686	0.306	14.5%
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.526	0.246	16.2%	SP vs. Right	0.312	0.785	0.354	13.1%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Henderson Alvarez – This game features two below average RH hurlers. Alvarez has always had an ERA that hovers around 4.00 and his K/9 last season of only 5.1 leaves much to be desired. Alvarez gave up a .338 wOBA to LH batters last season and should struggle against the LH batters in the Phillies lineup. Rating = 3

• Kyle Kendrick – Last season Kendrick posted some very pedestrian numbers as a starting pitcher. He had a 4.70 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.4. His struggles were both at home and on the road so he doesn’t have any splits in his favor tonight against the Marlins who have been very tough on opposing pitchers this season. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Miami

• Giancarlo Stanton – Kendrick actually gives up a higher wOBA and OPS to RH batters and even though Stanton is known as a lefty killer, he is certainly no slouch against RH pitching. Stanton is batting .361 with 3 HR’s against RH pitching this season. He is one of the top OF plays across the industry.

• Additional Plays: Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna

Philadelphia

• Chase Utley – As mentioned above, Alvarez really struggles against LH batters. Utley has started the season off as well as anyone with an insane .472 batting average. He is just mashing RH pitching right now and should continue to be targeted today.

• Ryan Howard – Again, target the LH bats from the Phillies today, they are in a great spot against Alvarez. Howard hit over .300 against RH pitching last season and he hit over .300 at home. He gets both of those splits in his favor today.

• Additional Plays: Domonic Brown

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox

Cleveland					Chicago White Sox
Corey Kluber		Vegas Moneyline			Jose Quintana		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CWS (-120)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.287	0.770	0.342	21.6%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.702	0.311	21.6%
SP vs. Right	0.272	0.702	0.313	23.0%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.679	0.304	19.3%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Corey Kluber – Kluber is a talented young RH pitcher, but he has yet to pitch well on the road. Last season he posted a 4.98 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in 12 road starts and he got rocked in his lone road start this season. While we are only two weeks into the season, the White Sox have scored more runs than any other team in baseball. All signs point to Kluber being a less than stellar play today. Rating = 4

• Jose Quintana – Quintana has pitched well in his first two starts, one of which was in Coors Field which is truly impressive. Quintana posted a 3.33 ERA at home last season with a 1.21 WHIP. The Indians are one of the best teams in the league against LH pitching though. Quintana is a mid-range option with decent upside, but there are pitchers with better matchups at his price point. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

• Carlos Santana – Quintana gave up a .304 wOBA to RH batters last season and Santana is a switch hitter that can hit well from both sides of the plate. Santana hit for an .864 OPS against LH pitching last season and his price is depressed across the major sites.

• Additional Plays: Asdrubal Cabrera

Chicago

• Adam Eaton – The White Sox are a very sneaky team to target today. Most people will see that Kluber is pitching and look for batters elsewhere, but I think this is a solid matchup. Kluber gave up a .342 wOBA to LH batters last season and Eaton is batting .354 as the leadoff man with 14 runs scored. To give you an idea of how impressive that is, the Padres have only scored 28 runs as a TEAM.

• Additional Plays: Jose Abreu, Adam Dunn, Conor Gillaspie

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2