MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 31st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Miami at NY Mets – 1:10 PM EST
| Miami | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | David Phelps |  | Bartolo Colon | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-128) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.695 | 0.311 | 19.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.707 | 0.309 | 17.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.280 | 0.753 | 0.333 | 16.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.748 | 0.326 | 19.30% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
David Phelps – Phelps has been a model of consistency since cracking the Yankees’ rotation during the 2012 season. He’s posted an xFIP right around 4.00 in every year since, with eerily similar peripheral numbers as well. The problem? That pretty much makes him nothing more than an average MLB pitcher and Miami is simply using as a stop-gap starter while their rotation heals up. The matchup in Citi Field against a Mets lineup that owns just a .285 wOBA against right-handed pitching is a nice one, but he’s struggled a bit in each of his last two starts and just doesn’t possess a ton of fantasy upside. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $4700 DK
Bartolo Colon – After a terrific start to the season, the wheels seem to have fallen off for Colon lately as the 42-year-old owns an ugly 6.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five starts this month. His early season success was somewhat baffling to me as no other starting pitcher in baseball has relied more heavily on his fastball this season (85% FB%) and Colon’s fastball struggles to reach the upper-80’s. He’s pitched admirably in two starts against this Miami team this season, but his recent struggles and somewhat limited ceiling make him nothing more than a secondary option on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $6900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Miami
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Giancarlo Stanton – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.391 wOBA: 0.262 ISO: 150 wRC+
Dee Gordon – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.31 wOBA: 0.09 ISO: 99 wRC+
Christian Yelich – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.334 wOBA: 0.116 ISO: 112 wRC+
NY Mets
Lucas Duda – (LHB) – Duda stayed hot at the plate yesterday and his RBI double extended his hitting streak to six games. He’s smacked six home runs over the last eight games and owns a .382 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.394 wOBA: 0.27 ISO: 158 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Daniel Murphy – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.328 wOBA: 0.12 ISO: 113 wRC+
Curtis Granderson – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.316 wOBA: 0.159 ISO: 105 wRC+
Washington at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| Washington | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Tanner Roark |  | Michael Lorenzen | ||||||
| RIGHT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| 8.0 | |||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.686 | 0.305 | 13.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.848 | 0.381 | 20.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.604 | 0.267 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.774 | 0.336 | 7.50% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tanner Roark – Roark drew his first start of the season, and while he was limited to just 66 pitches, he was very effective against the Cubs and picked up his first win of the season. Predominately working out of the Nats bullpen this season, Roark brings a 2.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP into this afternoon’s game against the Cincinnati Reds. His early season success should come as now surprise as Roark quietly posted a very impressive 15-10 record with a 2.85 ERA in 31 starts as a rookie last season. While Roark won’t rack up huge strikeout numbers (6.12 K/9 during his brief career), the Reds own just a .305 team wOBA this season and Roark mowed them down in their two meetings last season. The likely limited pitch count is one of my only major concerns. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $6000 DK
Michael Lorenzen – The Reds were hoping to have Johnny Cueto back on the mound today, but instead will have to hand the ball over the Michael Lorenzen for his fifth start of the season. Lorenzen has pitched very well when given the opportunity this season, posting a 3.12 ERA over 26.0 innings. With that said, his 4.85 K/9 is not a fantasy asset and a 5.00 xFIP suggest that he’s been rather lucky. The matchup against this dangerous Washington lineup is not ideal and I’ll be avoiding Lorenzen today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5400 FD, $4200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper – (LHB) – You’ll obviously want to make sure he’s back in the lineup (as he was scratched from yesterday’s lineup with a stiff back), but if Harper is playing, then he’s one of the top options on the board. He owns a ridiculous 1.201 OPS on the season and owns a .519 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.338 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 115 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Denard Span – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.353 wOBA: 0.125 ISO: 125 wRC+
Ryan Zimmerman – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.347 wOBA: 0.179 ISO: 121 wRC+
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – (LHB) – Votto has been quiet for much of this month, but he homered for the second straight game yesterday and owns an .881 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He’s on on-base machine (.378 OBP) and lefties own a .358 wOBA against Roark so far in 2015.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.342 wOBA: 0.093 ISO: 116 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Billy Hamilton – (Switch) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.285 wOBA: 0.104 ISO: 77 wRC+
Jay Bruce – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.301 wOBA: 0.149 ISO: 88 wRC+
Colorado at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST
| Colorado | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Jordan Lyles |  | Jerome Williams | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| COL (-106) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0.831 | 0.368 | 14.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0.774 | 0.343 | 14.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.667 | 0.296 | 17.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.787 | 0.343 | 16.10% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jordan Lyles – I’m not certain that there’s ever a good time to deploy a Colorado pitcher into your cash games, but if there is one, it’s probably now while they’re facing this feeble Philadelphia offense outside of Coors Field. Butler will toe the rubber owning a 2-5 record with a 5.10 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but the former first-round pick actually pitched rather well on the road last season (3.93 ERA) and mowed this Phillies team down in their two meetings in 2014. He won’t rack up many strikeouts, but this Phillies team not only owns the league’s worst team wOBA this season, but also owns the league’s 27th lowest BB%. He’s way too hard for me to trust in cash games, but he makes for an intriguing contrarian move for GPP’s. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $5200 FD, $5000 DK
Jerome Williams – Williams was surprisingly effective after being acquired by the Phillies last season; posting a 2.83 ERA in nine starts with his new team to close out 2014. However, that success has not carried over to 2015 and Williams enters today’s game sporting a disappointing 5.33 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after ten starts. He has however pitched fairly well at Citizens Bank Park where he owns a 3-1 record with a 3.45 ERA in five home starts. Colorado may be a much less intimidating offense away from Coors Field, but I just can’t justify picking a guy who has failed to record more strikeouts than walks in each of his last two starts. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $5200 FD, $4400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Troy Tulowitzki – (RHB) – His two home run game on Friday highlighted that he’s still a major weapon away from Coors Field and, with right-handers owning a .378 wOBA off of Jerome Williams, is an elite option at a fairly thin SS position today.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.404 wOBA: 0.207 ISO: 144 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Gonzalez – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.334 wOBA: 0.22 ISO: 96 wRC+
Charlie Blackmon – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.35 wOBA: 0.158 ISO: 107 wRC+
Nolan Arenado – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.339 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 99 wRC+
Philadelphia
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.292 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 84 wRC+
Maikel Franco (RHB) – No 2014 Stats
Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 1:35 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Jake Odorizzi |  | Chris Tillman | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-107) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.650 | 0.286 | 26.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.687 | 0.307 | 16.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.673 | 0.301 | 18.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.712 | 0.315 | 17.60% |
| Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Odorizzi – Last season, Odorizzi struggled with the bad combination of spotty control (3.16 BB/9) as well as the propensity to serve up the long ball (1.07 HR/9), and consequently produced some very erratic results in 2014. However, so far in 2015, he’s cut his walk rate in half (1.63 BB.9) and has only been taken deep on two occasions. After ten starts, the former first-round pick looks to be “putting it all together” and will take the mound sporting an impressive 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the season. He’ll head to Camden Yards today to take on a Baltimore team who he dominated in their only meeting earlier this season (7 shutout innings) but who really roughed him up in their four meetings last season. Camden Yards has rated out as the highest scoring ballpark so far in 2015 and this Baltimore team led MLB in home runs last season by a fairly wide margin, but Odorizzi’s recent success and solid strikeout potential still lands him as a nice GPP target. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8700 FD, $7400 DK
Chris Tillman – It’s been a disappointing start to the season for Tillman, but he was sharp in his last outing, holding the Astros to just two runs on five hits over seven innings of work. Tillman emerged as the ace of this Baltimore pitching staff last season, posting a 13-6 record with a 3.34 ERA in 34 starts. He’s been roughed up in his three home starts this season, but was sensational at Camden Yards last year, posting a 2.54 ERA over 113.1 innings. He baffled this Tampa Bay lineup in all three meetings last season (2-0 record with a 1.71 ERA and 0.81 WHIP), but just doesn’t possess the strikeout potential to be a major factor in DFS baseball. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $6600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – (RHB) – If you’re a BvsP believer than Longoria is your man today. The Rays 3B has gone 15 for 38 off of Tillman with six home runs off of Tillman in their previous meetings.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.304 wOBA: 0.143 ISO: 99 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Kevin Kiermaier – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.362 wOBA: 0.218 ISO: 139 wRC+
Baltimore
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Chris Davis – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.312 wOBA: 0.199 ISO: 97 wRC+
Jimmy Paredes – (Switch) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.303 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 91 wRC+
Adam Jones – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.31 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 95 wRC+
Arizona at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST
| Arizona | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Chase Anderson |  | Tyler Wagner | ||||||
| RIGHT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ARI (-112) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.744 | 0.327 | 19.0% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.718 | 0.315 | 21.3% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chase Anderson – Chase Anderson has been a bright spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season as the 27-year-old will head to Milwaukee sporting an impressive 2.59 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first nine starts of the season. While his 4.15 SIERA signals that a regression is likely, Anderson’s success shouldn’t be seen as a complete surprise after he amassed a 3.78 SIERA over 114.1 innings as a rookie last season. His 8.27 K/9 from last season is promising and the matchup against a Milwaukee team owning MLB’s second worst team wOBA (.288 wOBA), worst wRC+ (77 wRC+) and third-highest strikeout rate (23.0%) is a definite plus. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $5500 DK
Tyler Wagner – Tyler Wagner will get called up by Milwaukee today to make his first career MLB start. The 24-year-old was dominant at High-A ball last season (13-6 record with a 1.86 ERA) and has followed it up with loads of success this season at AA. However, the jump from AA to the MLB level is rarely made without major hiccups and Wagner’s modest strikeout totals in the low minors are not overly promising. The matchup is not terrible, but it’s likely a mistake to use him as anything more than a GPP flier. Rating = 3
Salaries: $3000 FD, $4000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt – (RHB) – Goldie against a AAA level pitcher? Yes, please. He homered twice in yesterday’s game and now has three hits in each of the last two games. With a .350 average and 1.169 OPS during the month of May, he’s an elite hitting option.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.386 wOBA: 0.249 ISO: 144 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
A.J. Pollock – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.364 wOBA: 0.163 ISO: 129 wRC+
Ender Inciarte – (LHB)
Milwaukee
Adam Lind – (LHB) – With lefties smacking Anderson around to the tune of a .351 wOBA this season, Lind is the best option from this Brewers’ lineup. Their first basemen posted a .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and owns a .909 OPS against them so far in 2015.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.41 wOBA: 0.179 ISO: 164 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.335 wOBA: 0.169 ISO: 110 wRC+
Carlos Gomez – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.368 wOBA: 0.187 ISO: 133 wRC+