MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 3rd Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-03 17:08:59

LA Dodgers at Colorado

LA Dodgers					Colorado
Zack Greinke		Vegas Moneyline			Franklin Morales		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAD (-136)			LEFT		10.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.696	0.313	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.230	0.609	0.291	16.9%
SP vs. Right	0.225	0.597	0.272	24.3%	SP vs. Right	0.314	0.949	0.418	14.8%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zack Greinke – Greinke is one of the best pitchers in the National League, but should be avoided tonight as he is dealt a tough hand facing the Rockies in Coors Field. The total of this game is set at 10.5 runs for a reason. As always, avoid the pitchers in Coors. Rating = 5

Salaries: $9600 FD, $18330 DS, $18150 DD, $9500 DK, $117600 FF, $27500 SS, $18150 FTD

• Franklin Morales – The Dodgers are projected to score the most runs of any team tonight, meaning Morales is expected to give up the most runs of any pitcher. There is nothing to suggest that Morales will pitch well tonight. Avoid him in all leagues and stack the hitters against him. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8554 DS, $8650 DD, $5100 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Scott Van Slyke – Van Slyke will undoubtedly be in the lineup tonight as he has been mashing LH pitching this season to a tune of a .494 wOBA. Morales struggles against RHB’s and did I mention that this game will be played in Coors Field? Target Van Slyke and a few of his teammates tonight.

Additional Plays: Yasiel Puig, Dee Gordon, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – There are few instances where I will target hitters against Greinke, and Coors Field is one of them. Dickerson has a .463 wOBA against RH pitching this season and I think the Rockies’ offense puts some runs up on the board tonight.

Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Morneau

NY Yankees at Minnesota

NY Yankees					Minnesota
Masahiro Tanaka		Vegas Moneyline			Phil Hughes		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-160)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.223	0.590	0.263	23.1%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.748	0.328	20.7%
SP vs. Right	0.207	0.593	0.266	35.9%	SP vs. Right	0.302	0.781	0.343	18.8%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Masahiro Tanaka – The choice between Darvish, Scherzer, and Tanaka is going to be a tough one as you can make a case for all 3. While I think Scherzer offers the best value, Tanaka is certainly in play. On the season he is boasting a 2.10 ERA and a strikeout rate of 9.9 per 9 innings. The Twins strikeout at the 8th highest rate of any team (21.7%) against RH pitching. Tanaka has the matchup and the upside, but you are going to have to pay up for him. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11200 FD, $24805 DS, $21000 DD, $11600 DK, $143400 FF, $33000 SS, $21000 FTD

• Phil Hughes – Despite giving up 10 earned runs over his last 2 starts, Hughes is still enjoying a nice bounce back season. Through 16 starts, Hughes has a 3.58 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.7. He is facing his former team for the first time since leaving the Yankees and everyone loves a revenge game. Hughes would love nothing more than to out-pitch the Yankees’ new ace. I’ll be using Hughes in a lot of GPP lineups tonight. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7100 FD, $15540 DS, $14700 DD, $9400 DK, $105400 FF, $22900 SS, $14700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner – If you aren’t a fan of Hughes tonight, Gardner looks like a nice bat to target against him. Gardner has a .351 wOBA against RH pitching this season and gives you that rare combination of speed (15 SB’s) and power (8 HR’s).

Additional Plays: Mark Teixeira

Minnesota

Again, why target batters against a top pitcher in Tanaka when there are better matchups to exploit?

Toronto at Oakland

Toronto					Oakland
R.A. Dickey		Vegas Moneyline			Sonny Gray		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-160)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.252	0.748	0.333	17.4%	SP vs. Left	0.221	0.604	0.275	23.0%
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.689	0.311	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.223	0.574	0.260	22.6%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• R.A. Dickey – Dickey has actually posted some consistent fantasy results over his last 10 starts, but the problem is that he’s been consistently average. He isn’t striking out nearly as many batters as he was a couple of years ago as a member of the Mets. He draws an extremely tough matchup tonight against the A’s who love to work the count and take walks (10% walk rate against RH pitching which is the highest in baseball). They are also ranked 5th as a team against RH pitching with a .330 wOBA. All signs point to a rough outing from Dickey tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7400 FD, $13464 DS, $13150 DD, $7600 DK, $70200 FF, $20000 SS, $13150 FTD

• Sonny Gray – Gray has to be glad that the month of June has passed. It was by far his worst month of the season. He will look to start July off on the right foot as he takes on the Blue Jays at home. While the Blue Jays hit RH pitching as well as anyone in baseball, they are a much different team away from home. Gray is a sizable favorite in a game that features a low run total. He should be targeted on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8400 FD, $16445 DS, $14950 DD, $8100 DK, $94600 FF, $23000 SS, $14950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

There really aren’t any hitters that stand out on the Blue Jays tonight. Since the start of 2013, Gray has held both LHB’s and RHB’s under a .280 wOBA.

Oakland

Yoenis Cespedes – You thought I was going to put Moss here, didn’t you? Don’t worry Moss is still listed in the additional plays. I have Cespedes as the top play as he is riding a career long 15 game hitting streak. He was dealing with a sore hamstring, but showed no ill effects in yesterday’s game against the Tigers.

Additional Plays: Brandon Moss, Coco Crisp

Houston at LA Angels

Houston					LA Angels
Brett Oberholtzer		Vegas Moneyline			Matt Shoemaker		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		LAA (-168)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.267	0.659	0.295	18.7%	SP vs. Left	0.277	0.793	0.351	24.6%
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.710	0.311	15.7%	SP vs. Right	0.149	0.449	0.199	27.8%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brett Oberholtzer – I’ll keep it brief here, Oberholtzer is not a recommended play. He’s an average LH pitcher that is facing an Angels’ team that is ranked 2nd against LH pitching with a team .342 wOBA. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5800 FD, $10845 DS, $10000 DD, $5800 DK, $81100 FF, $16000 SS, $10000 FTD

• Matt Shoemaker – Right when I start believing in Shoemaker, he goes out and gives up 8 earned runs in only 4 innings of work against the Royals. One bad start aside, Shoemaker has really pitched well this season. He should see plenty of run support and he draws a nice matchup against the Astros who are one of the most strikeout happy offenses in baseball. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6600 FD, $14064 DS, $11600 DD, $6800 DK, $90300 FF, $18300 SS, $11600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

There really aren’t any suggested plays on the Astros tonight. You can make the case for Jose Altuve in cash games or George Springer in tournaments, but both are average options at best tonight.

LA Angels

Mike Trout – You can’t have any biases in daily fantasy sports and if you happened to have rostered Trout last night, you just have to let it go. He has another great matchup tonight and should be in for a terrific bounce back game.

Additional Plays: Howie Kendrick, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton