MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-17 14:19:18

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Washington at Boston

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg (FD: $10200, DK: $9600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.14 / xFIP: 2.56 / SIERA: 2.64
K/9: 10.13 / K%: 0.279 / BB%: 0.05
BOS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 24

Analysis: Strasburg disappointed in his 2015 debut, giving up six runs (three earned) in 5.1 innings. Strasburg is an elite strikeout pitcher, but they take a bit hit in his road starts. Last season he averaged nearly two more strikeouts per nine innings at home than he did on the road. Strasburg draws a tough matchup against the Red Sox under American League rules. Not only will he have to face a DH, but he’ll have to face Boston in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Strasburg is best suited as a tournament play, given the difficult matchup. Rating = 7

Justin Masterson (FD: $7300, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.88 / xFIP: 4.08 / SIERA: 4.03
K/9: 8.11 / K%: 0.196 / BB%: 0.117
WAS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Masterson is a pitcher that can rack up the strikeouts when he’s one and rack up the walks when his command is off. In 2014, he had a strikeout rate of 19.6%, but he also walked 11.7% of the batters that he faced. Masterson pitched well in his first start of the season, striking out seven batters while only giving up two runs to the Phillies in six innings of work. Despite facing an elite pitcher, Masterson is actually a small favorite in this one. However, like Stephen Strasburg, he’s best suited as a tournament play. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Bryce Harper (FD: $4100, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.273 / wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.144

Analysis: Harper already has two home runs this season and he has a good chance to add to that total against Justin Masterson, who gave up a .400 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Harper has good power against right-handed pitching, he has good speed on the bases, and he’s playing in Fenway, which is a favorable ballpark for left-handed batters.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3500, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.179

Clint Robinson (FD: $2300, DK: $3100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.42 / ISO: 0

Boston

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.156

Mookie Betts (FD: $3200, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.358 / ISO: 0.153

Detroit at Pittsburgh

Pitcher Grind Down

Shane Greene (FD: $7900, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.78 / xFIP: 3.4 / SIERA: 3.41
K/9: 9.27 / K%: 0.235 / BB%: 0.084
PIT vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 14

Analysis: Greene was dominant in his first start with the Tigers, throwing eight shutout innings against the Twins while striking out four batters. He is coming off of a great 2014 campaign, where he posted a 3.40 xFIP and a 9.3 K/9. Greene draws a tough matchup against the Pirates, but at least he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark under National League rules. Greene is still extremely underpriced on DraftKings, which puts him in play as an SP2. Rating = 6

A.J. Burnett (FD: $6700, DK: $8000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.59 / xFIP: 3.95 / SIERA: 4
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.203 / BB%: 0.103
DET vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 5

Analysis: Burnett had a decent outing in his first start of the season, striking out seven batters while only giving up two runs to the Reds. Burnett still has the ability to rack up the strikeouts, even though he is 38 years old. He finished 2014 with a strikeout rate of 20.3%. Burnett draws a very tough matchup against the Tigers though, who were ranked 5th in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Even though Burnett is a -124 favorite, I don’t feel confident rostering him in cash games. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Anthony Gose (FD: $3400, DK: $3500)

BA: 0.226 / wOBA: 0.279 / ISO: 0.067
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.074

Analysis: Gose has been red-hot to start the season. He is 9-for-23 with 4 extra-base hits. He should be batting leadoff on Tuesday night against A.J. Burnett, who gave up a .350 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. Gose is no longer a punt option, but he’s still in play even at his elevated price point.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $5300, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker (FD: $3700, DK: $4400)

BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.356 / ISO: 0.195
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.222

Analysis: Walker is a switch-hitter that derives most of his power from the left side of the plate. He finished 2014 with a .364 wOBA and a .222 ISO against right-handed pitching. While Shane Greene is very good against right-handed hitters, he did give up a .345 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Pedro Alvarez (FD: $3600, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.195

Gregory Polanco (FD: $3400, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.123

NY Yankees at Baltimore

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia (FD: $7400, DK: $8200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.28 / xFIP: 3.11 / SIERA: 3.07
K/9: 9.39 / K%: 0.23 / BB%: 0.048
BAL vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 6 / K% Rank: 19

Analysis: All of the talk about Sabathia heading into the season was that his velocity was up from last year. Unfortunately, the increased velocity didn’t help much against the Blue Jays in his first start. He gave up five runs on eight hits. He did manage to strike out eight batters though, which is a good sign. Sabathia will certainly be a viable fantasy option at times this season, but not against the Orioles in Camden Yards. The Orioles are very good at home and very good against left-handed pitching. Rating = 5

Miguel Gonzalez (FD: $7200, DK: $6100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.23 / xFIP: 4.46 / SIERA: 4.4
K/9: 6.28 / K%: 0.165 / BB%: 0.076
NYY vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 22 / K% Rank: 5

Analysis: Gonzalez is one of those pitchers that is rarely used in daily fantasy baseball. He finished 2014 with a mediocre xFIP of 4.46 and a d K/9 of 6.3. Gonzalez walks too many batters, while not striking out enough. He’s a small favorite against the Yankees, but he’s not a recommended fantasy play on a night with so many pitching options taking the mound. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4100, DK: $4900)

BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.327 / ISO: 0.148
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.137

Analysis: Ellsbury’s price is fairly expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but this is the perfect matchup for a big fantasy outing. Miguel Gonzalez is an average right-handed pitcher that gave up a .340 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. Ellsbury may not have a ton of power, but he does have the ability to swipe multiple bases. Speed is one of the most overlooked attributes in daily fantasy baseball.

Secondary Plays:

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3600, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.32 / ISO: 0.199

Brian McCann (FD: $3400, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.282 / ISO: 0.151

Baltimore

Adam Jones (FD: $4700, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.281 / wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.188
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 / ISO: 0.26

Analysis: Jones hits left-handed pitching well. In fact, he hits left-handed pitching very well. He finished 2014 with a .434 wOBA and a .260 ISO against southpaws. Jones draws a terrific matchup against CC Sabathia, who gave up a .401 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Jones is also seeing the ball well right now, with ten hits in his last four games.

Secondary Plays:

Steve Pearce (FD: $3900, DK: $4000) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.472 / ISO: 0.378

Manny Machado (FD: $2800, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.281 / ISO: 0.125

Delmon Young (FD: $2500, DK: $3500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.141

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Andriese (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)

Pitching Stats (2014 – AAA):

ERA: 3.77 / FIP: 4.24
K/9: 7.1 / BB%: 2.7
TOR vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 2 / K% Rank: 7

Analysis: Andriese will be making his major league debut on Tuesday night. Andriese is not one of the Rays’ top prospects and he only got the nod to start because Erasmo Ramirez in his appearance last week. Andriese posted fairly mediocre numbers in the minors last season, finishing with a 4.24 FIP and a 7.1 K/9. He’s the absolute minimum price on FanDuel, but is nothing more than a GPP flier against a stacked Blue Jays’ lineup in the Rogers Centre. Rating = 3

Daniel Norris (FD: $6600, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.4 / xFIP: 5.85 / SIERA: 5.95
K/9: 5.4 / K%: 0.133 / BB%: 0.167
TB vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 21 / K% Rank: 10

Analysis: Norris held his own in the first start of the season. While he did give up three runs to the Yankees, he struck out five batters in 5.2 innings of work. Norris is a small favorite tonight against the Rays, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot when the total for the game is set at 9.0 runs. Both offenses are expected to have some success on Tuesday night, making both starting pitchers very risky fantasy options. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria (FD: $3800, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.253 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.151
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.175

Analysis: The Longoria pick didn’t pan out against R.A. Dickey last night, but have no fear, he is primed to bounce back in a favorable matchup against Daniel Norris. Longoria had a .351 wOBA and a .175 ISO against left-handed pitching last season and he sees a major ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre.

Desmond Jennings (FD: $2800, DK: $4400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.365 / ISO: 0.222

Asdrubal Cabrera (FD: $2800, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.151

Secondary Plays:

Toronto

Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4600, DK: $5500)

BA: 0.268 / wOBA: 0.389 / ISO: 0.279
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 / ISO: 0.291

Analysis: The Blue Jays will likely be a popular stack on Tuesday night, as Matt Andriese will be making his first career start in the major leagues. You can’t go wrong with any of the hitters in this lineup, but Encarnacion stands out as the top play, thanks to his .392 wOBA and .291 ISO against right-handed pitching. Encarnacion is going to be my third home run call of the season. So far, Bryce Harper and David Ortiz haven’t let me down.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Bautista (FD: $4800, DK: $5800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.227

Jose Reyes (FD: $3900, DK: $5100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.115

Dalton Pompey (FD: $3100, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.431 / ISO: 0.320

Miami at Atlanta

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler (FD: $6900, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.81 / xFIP: 4.15 / SIERA: 4.16
K/9: 7.2 / K%: 0.191 / BB%: 0.088
ATL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 29 / K% Rank: 26

Analysis: Koehler is an average right-handed pitcher that had much better splits at home than he did on the road last season. He finished 2014 with a 4.15 xFIP and a 7.2 K/9. While the matchup against the Braves is appealing, there isn’t enough upside for me to consider Koehler in cash games or tournaments. A pitcher is the most important position in daily fantasy baseball and unfortunately Koehler just doesn’t have the strikeout potential that I’m looking for. Rating = 5.5

Trevor Cahill (FD: $6600, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.61 / xFIP: 3.83 / SIERA: 3.96
K/9: 8.54 / K%: 0.21 / BB%: 0.11
MIA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 28

Analysis: Cahill will be making his first start with the Braves tonight, as they host the visiting Marlins. Cahill pitched better than his ERA would suggest last season, as he finished with an xFIP of 3.83 and a K/9 of 8.5. Cahill has changed his mechanics a bit heading into the season and it will be interesting to see if it pays off. He draws an average matchup against the Marlins, who actually struck out at the 3rd-highest rate against right-handed pitching last season. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Dee Gordon (FD: $4000, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.289 / wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.089
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.31 / ISO: 0.09

Analysis: Gordon is one of my favorite plays at second base on Tuesday night. He has a favorable matchup against Trevor Cahill, who gave up a .402 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Gordon is one of the fastest players in the majors and he’s a threat to steal a base every time he safely reaches first. He also sees a small boost in stolen base potential with a right-handed pitcher on the mound.

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4700, DK: $5400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.262

Christian Yelich (FD: $3600, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.116

Editor’s Note: Christian Yelich has been scratched from the lineup for tonight.

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3600, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.374 / ISO: 0.173
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 / ISO: 0.188

Analysis: There is no guaranteed production from position players in daily fantasy baseball, but Freeman is certainly one of the most consistent fantasy players in the game. He hits for average and he hits for power. He had a .388 wOBA and a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. Even though Tom Koehler gives up reverse splits, Freeman is still the preferred option on the Braves.

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis (FD: $3000, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.332 / ISO: 0.135

Eric Young (FD: $2400, DK: $3600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.08

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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