MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 1st
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
LA Dodgers at San Diego
| LA Dodgers | San Diego |
| Zack Greinke | Vegas Moneyline | Ian Kennedy | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | LAD (-150) | RIGHT | 6.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.721 | 0.326 | 19.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.824 | 0.360 | 21.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.551 | 0.254 | 22.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.704 | 0.329 | 19.6% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP  | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SDP vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Zack Greinke – Greinke is coming off of a terrific season. Last year, Greinke posted a 2.63 ERA with a K-rate of 7.5/9 IP. Greinke held opponents to a .234 batting average and finally learned to pitch away from home. Greinke faced this Padres lineup 4 times last season and posted a 1.44 ERA with 22 K’s over 25 innings pitched. Greinke has dominated this lineup and this game has the lowest total on the schedule tonight. The Padres do have a few solid LH bats in their lineup, but Greinke held LH hitters to a .326 wOBA last season. Not to mention the fact that this game will be played in Petco Park which surrendered the fewest runs in all of the majors last season. Rating = 10
- Ian Kennedy – It’s hard to believe that Kennedy was close to winning the Cy Young a couple of years ago. He is coming off of his worst season in 3 years. He posted a 4.91 ERA last season with a 1.40 WHIP. While I’m not sure that I will be targeting Kennedy on the road this season, half of his starts will be in Petco which boosts his fantasy value tremendously. In 8 starts in Petco last season, Kennedy posted a 3.06 ERA with a very impressive K-rate of 10.1/9 IP. Kennedy may not be favored here, but he makes for a decent tournament play. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Dodgers
- Adrian Gonzalez – Kennedy gave up a wOBA of .360 to LH batters last season and even though Petco is a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, Gonzalez did not seem to mind playing there at all last season. In 70 at-bats at Petco, Gonzalez hit for a .314 batting average and an OPS of .952. Gonzalez is an on-base machine and should be targeted in all cash games.
- Carl Crawford – Crawford is another LH bat that I’m high on tonight. Crawford hit for a .308 batting against against RH pitching last season and had 34 XBH’s. Crawford should be batting lead-off here and if he can get on base, A-Gon and crew will bring him home.
San Diego
- As crazy as it sounds, I typically do not like to target batters against pitchers that have a low ERA, low WHIP, and a high K-rate. Greinke is my top pitcher tonight and I will not be targeting any hitter against him.
NY Yankees at Houston
| NY Yankees | Houston |
| CC Sabathia | Vegas Moneyline | Scott Feldman | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | NYY (-150) | RIGHT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.648 | 0.293 | 30.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.656 | 0.299 | 17.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.798 | 0.352 | 16.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.657 | 0.297 | 17.4% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- CC Sabathia – The second half of last season gave us a glimpse of the Sabathia that we will see in the 2014 season. He has lost a lot of velocity and now only throws an 89 MPH fastball. Sabathia still has some other pitches in his repertoire, but the days of CC dominating lineups may be behind him. In his last 12 starts last season, Sabathia posted a 6.08 ERA while allowing opponents to hit for a .296 batting average. What’s even more concerning is that his K-rate dropped to 7.1/9 IP during that stretch. I have a feeling that CC will be heavily owned tonight as the Astros have one of the worst lineups in baseball. I’m not taking the bait though and if he pitches like I expect him to, you can get a big jump on your competition by fading him tonight. Rating = 5
- Scott Feldman – Feldman doesn’t overpower a lot of batters, but he’s a much better pitcher than most people give him credit for. Feldman posted a resepectable 3.86 ERA last season while holding opponents to a .234 batting average. Feldman only gave up 19 HR’s in 30 starts last season. Now, do I think he makes a good fantasy play against the Yankees? Not exactly. Feldman’s K-rate last season was 6.5/9 IP’s and the Yankees have firepower all through their lineup. Feldman will have to deal with LH batters Ellsbury, Beltra, Teixiera, McCann, Gardner, Roberts, and Johnson. Feldman is a big underdog here for a reason. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
New York Yankees
- Carlos Beltran – If you like to use mini-stacks, make sure to check out the new tool that we offer: Notorious’ Top Stacks of the day. The Yankees are at the very top of that list tonight. Feldman was a very serviceable starter last season, but he doesn’t strike out many batters and this Yankees lineup is stacked. I have a feeling that Feldman won’t last more than a few innings. Beltran has nice power from the left side of the plate and has to be excited for his Yankees’ debut.
- Brian McCann – Not only is McCann facing a RH pitcher (.869 OPS against RH pitching last season), not only will he have plenty of RBI opportunities, but he is batting clean-up as well. McCann and Posey are my top two plays at Catcher tonight and McCann is considerably cheaper than Posey on most sites.
- Jacoby Ellsbury – My top 3 plays on the Yankees are all making their Yankees’ debut and they can all hit from the left side of the plate. Ellsbury is one of the fastest players in the majors and when he gets on base, there is a good chance he will try to steal 2nd. Ellsbury had 52 stolen bases last season and hit for a .328 batting average against RH pitching.
Houston
- Jose Altuve – I think a lot of people are going to be expecting Sabathia to pitch like he did in his prime, but I’m just not seeing it. He ended the season terribly last season and hasn’t gained any velocity on his fastball this spring. Altuve has been very good against LH pitching in his career and is an extremely solid value play at 2B today.
- Dexter Fowler – Fowler has a new uniform, but will be batting leadoff just like he did in Colorado. Fowler hit .323 against LH pitching last season with an OPS of .861. His price across the industry is extremely cheap and I will be targeting him heavily tonight in my lineups.
Toronto at Tampa Bay
| Toronto | Tampa Bay |
| Drew Hutchison | Vegas Moneyline | Alex Cobb | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | TBR (-150) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | | | | | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.671 | 0.300 | 22.9% |
| SP vs. Right | | | | | SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.587 | 0.272 | 23.7% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Drew Hutchison – Hutchison pitched in 11 games last season and posted a 4.60 ERA over 58 innings of work. He has had a great spring and the Blue Jays have high hopes for the young right-hander. This is not a great matchup for the youngster though. The Rays lineup is very balanced this season and they are coming off of a strong offensive performance against R.A. Dickey on Opening Day. The Rays have 4 solid LH bats to throw at Hutchison and he won’t get a break against the RH batters either as Longo, Myers, and Jennings are all looking to have big seasons. There are plenty of better options tonight. Rating = 4
- Alex Cobb – Cobb was absolutely terrific for the Rays last season. Over 22 starts, he posted a 2,76 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a K-rate of 8.4/9 IP. Those numbers rival those of the top pitchers in baseball and Cobb should be in for another stellar season. He does draw a tough matchup against the Blue Jays, but Cobb held them to 1 run over 6 innings of work in his one and only meeting against them last season. Cobb is a big favorite tonight and is one of the safest plays that you are going to find in cash games. With a strong offense behind him, he should get plenty of run support which will put him in line for a win. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
- Alex Cobb is coming off of a fantastic season and the Rays could be without Jose Reyes tonight. His absence really hurts their lineup. This game is expected to be low scoring and with Cobb being one of the top pitching options on the board, I suggest avoiding the Blue Jays bats tonight.
Tampa Bay
- Wil Myers – Hutchison is making his first career big league start and the Rays offense is coming off of a big game against Dickey last night. Myers looked great last night going 3/5 with 2 runs and 2 RBI’s. The talented young hitter is still cheap across the industry and this is a great time to take him before his price skyrockets.
- Evan Longoria – Longoria is Mr. Consistency at 3B. He has great pop in his bat against LH and RH pitching and should see plenty of RBI opportunities this season with the stacked Rays’ lineup. Longo makes pitchers pay for mistakes and I have a feeling he may take Hutchison deep tonight.
Colorado at Miami
| Miami | Colorado |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Vegas Moneyline | Brett Anderson | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | MIA (-104) | LEFT | 7.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.657 | 0.307 | 15.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.302 | 0.910 | 0.394 | 27.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.685 | 0.305 | 19.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.755 | 0.341 | 21.7% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brett Anderson – Anderson has only started 11 games over the last two seasons. He has been plagued by injuries and even though he is only 26 years old, you have to think that it may start to take a toll. Last season, Anderson posted a 6.07 ERA while giving up a .297 batting average to opponents. He has posted mix results in Spring ball and I’m just not sure that I will be targeting him this early in the season. Vegas has a little more faith in him than I do though as this game has an even line and the total is only set at 7 runs. With that in mind, he could make a nice tournament play. Rating = 5
- Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi had a very nice season last year for the Marlins. He posted a 3.39 ERA over 18 starts and held LH and RH batters to a .251 average or below. Eovaldi is not a high strike-pitcher though as he only averaged 6.6 K’s per 9 innings pitched. Jose Fernandez made this Rockies’ lineup appear soft, but Eovaldi does not have the same velocity as Fernandez. I typically like to target pitchers that have a high K-rate and that are relatively big favorites. Eovaldi is 0/2 in those categories. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
- Carlos Gonzalez – Cargo scored the lone run for the Rockies last night with a solo shot off of Jose Fernandez. Tonight he has a favorable matchup against Eovaldi. Cargo hit .297 against RH pitching last season with an OPS over 1.00. Anytime you can target a batter in a position where he has an OPS over 1.00, you should at least consider it.
Miami
- Giancarlo Stanton – The Marlins get to face a lefty for the 2nd straight game and I’m sure Stanton doesn’t mind that one bit. Stanton went 2/5 last night with 2 runs and 2 RBI’s and hit a ball deep to right field that ended up on the warning track. Stanton crushes LH pitching and he is one of my top plays tonight.
- Jeff Baker – Baker is looking to become an everyday player this season, but he has always been good against LH pitching. Last season, Baker hit for a .314 batting average against LH pitching with an OPS of 1.07. He has incredible power against LH pitching and is not a household name. His is close to minimum salary on a few sites and should be targeted in ALL leagues tonight.
Philadelphia at Texas
| Philadelphia | Texas |
| A.J. Burnett | Vegas Moneyline | Martin Perez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | TEX (-137) | LEFT | 8.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.711 | 0.335 | 22.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.741 | 0.338 | 16.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.203 | 0.543 | 0.244 | 29.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.714 | 0.315 | 15.8% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- A.J. Burnett – I’m going to build a case for Burnett tonight and then I am quickly going to smash it. Burnett posted a 3.30 ERA last season over 30 starts and had one of the highest K-rates in the majors (9.8/9 IP). He only gave up 11 HR’s over those 30 starts which is also very impressive. All of that said, Burnett is facing an extremely tough Rangers lineup in the hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark (now called Globe Life Park). The Rangers put up 8 earned runs against Cliff Lee on Opening Day and Burnett has really struggled against LH bats in his career. Last season Burnett gave up a .335 wOBA to LH bats. Choo, Fielder, Moreland, and Martin should give Burnett some fits tonight. Rating = 4
- Martin Perez – Perez posted a 3.62 ERA over 20 starts last season, but that does not tell the whole story. Perez had a high WHIP of 1.338 and he gave up a batting average of .267 to all batters. The total for this game is set at 8.5 runs which is tied for the highest on the board today. Perez is pitching against a tough Phillies lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Even though he is the favorite here, the fact that he is giving up a .315 and .338 wOBA to RH and LH batters makes me want to stay far away from him tonight. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
- Chase Utley – A lot of times DFS players will make certain rules and stick to them even though the numbers suggest otherwise. Utley vs. Perez is a great example. A lot of people will completely avoid the lefty/lefty matchup regardless of the situation. In this case though, Utley looks like a terrific play. Perez was one of those reverse split type of pitchers last season as he gave up a wOBA of .338 to LH hitters. Utley will be under-owned tonight, but I think he makes a solid play.
- Jimmy Rollins – Rollins with a Grand Salami yesterday got the Phillies off to an extremely fast start. Let’s see if he can keep it rolling tonight against Perez. Rollins is cheap across the industry and there aren’t many options at SS that stand out. Save the cap space and take Rollins in cash games.
Texas
- Prince Fielder – Burnett owns RH batters, but he has definitely had his struggles against lefties. Last season Burnett gave up a wOBA of .335 to LH bats so if you are targeting Rangers tonight, target the LH bats. Fielder is a perfect fit for this ball park and should see plenty of RBI chances tonight.
- Shin-Soo Choo – Choo loves RH pitching. Last season, he hit .317 against RH pitching with an OPS over 1.00. Choo also hit all 21 of his HR’s against righties. Choo will be batting lead-off and should be in for a solid outing tonight against Burnett.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
