MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-23 14:55:05

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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St. Louis at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $9000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.74 / xFIP: 3.81 / SIERA: 3.84
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.209 / BB%: 0.083

WAS vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.277 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 0.246 (Rank: 27)

Lynn has looked sharp in his first two starts of the season. He gave up one earned run with nine strikeouts against the Cubs and backed it up by giving up one earned run with four strikeouts against the Brewers. Lynn had a respectable K/9 of 8.0 last season, striking out 20.9% of the batters that he faced. His biggest issue is that he does tend to give up a lot of walks (8.3% walk rate in 2014). Tonight he faces a Nationals’ offense that is ranked 23rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Lynn is a small underdog here though, so getting the win is far from guaranteed. Rating = 7

Gio Gonzalez (FD: $8900, DK: $8900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.57 / xFIP: 3.39 / SIERA: 3.43
K/9: 9.19 / K%: 0.248 / BB%: 0.086

STL vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 0.298 (Rank: 28)

Gonzalez has had a couple of subpar outings to start the season. He currently has a 3.87 xFIP with a K/9 of 7.3. He has already walked six batters in his first 12 innings of work, which is usually his Achilles Heel. In 2014, Gonzalez finished with an elite strikeout rate of 24.8%, but he also walked 8.6% of the batters that he faced. He’s a small favorite tonight against the Cardinals, whose bats have been cold here in the first two weeks of season. They are currently ranked 18th in wOBA against left-handed pitching, striking out at the third-highest rate. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals can be avoided against Gio Gonzalez, who has held left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA since the start of 2014.

Washington

Bryce Harper (FD: $4500, DK: $4300)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.273 / wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.151
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 / ISO: 0.144

Bryce Bryce Baby

Harper has been a little hit or miss this season, but it’s hard to expect anything else in a high-variance sport such as baseball. He has recorded two multi-hit games in his last five and he currently has a .415 wOBA against right-handed pitching. His salary is playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has a decent matchup against Lance Lynn, who allowed a .314 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season.

Additional Plays:

Ryan Zimmerman (FD: $3600, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B/3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.179

Miami at Philadelphia

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Haren (FD: $7600, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.02 / xFIP: 3.7 / SIERA: 3.74
K/9: 7.02 / K%: 0.187 / BB%: 0.046

PHI vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.242 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 0.22 (Rank: 21)

Home runs allowed by pitchers is a tough stat to predict each season, but Haren is one of the few that we can count on to give up a lot of dingers. He has allowed at least 1.25 home runs per nine innings in each of the past 12 seasons. If you take out the home runs, Haren is an above average pitcher. He finished 2014 with a 3.70 xFIP and a K/9 of 7.0. He also keeps his walks down, as he only gave free passes to 4.6% of the batters that he faced. If he can keep the ball in the park tonight, he could provide excellent value as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. The Phillies are ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Rating = 6.5

Jerome Williams (FD: $6300, DK: $4700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.77 / xFIP: 4.09 / SIERA: 4.03
K/9: 6.42 / K%: 0.165 / BB%: 0.072

MIA vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.281 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 0.238 (Rank: 26)

Williams is not a pitching option that we need to spend too much time on. He finished 2014 with a 4.09 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.4. He walked 7.2% of the batters he faced, while giving up a .320+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He’s a small favorite tonight against the Marlins, but there isn’t enough upside to justify using him in cash games or tournaments. The top of the Marlins’ order should give Williams some trouble. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Christian Yelich (FD: $3200, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.284 / wOBA: 0.341 / ISO: 0.119
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.116

Yelich is a player that does everything well. He can hit for average, he can hit for power, and he can steal bases. He has a favorable matchup against Jerome Williams tonight, who gave up a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Meanwhile, Yelich finished his 2014 campaign with a .334 wOBA and a .116 ISO.

Additional Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4900, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.262

Dee Gordon (FD: $4000, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B/SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.310 / ISO: 0.090

Martin Prado (FD: $2900, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 2B/3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.297 / ISO: 0.108

Philadelphia

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Cody Asche (FD: $2500, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.137

Carlos Ruiz (FD: $2200, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: C)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.099

Jeff Francoeur (FD: $2200, DK: $2300)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh

Pitcher Grind Down

Travis Wood (FD: $7000, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 5.03 / xFIP: 4.51 / SIERA: 4.41
K/9: 7.57 / K%: 0.187 / BB%: 0.097

PIT vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.249 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 0.355 (Rank: 30)

Wood is primed for a bounce back season, after having a disappointing 2014 campaign. He has looked sharp in his first two starts of the season, giving up a combined three earned runs while striking out 12 batters. He is “priced to move” tonight against the Pirates. While I don’t recommend him as a cash game play, Wood offers great upside as a tournament option against Pittsburgh in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. If he can pitch around the top of the order, he should be able to pick up some strikeouts at the bottom of the lineup. Rating = 6

Francisco Liriano (FD: $8400, DK: $8700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.38 / xFIP: 3.4 / SIERA: 3.61
K/9: 9.7 / K%: 0.253 / BB%: 0.117

CHC vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.345 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 0.211 (Rank: 18)

Through his first two starts of the season, Liriano has struck out more batters (14) than he’s allowed on base (10). Liriano is a high-strikeout pitcher that has great splits at PNC Park. He does walk quite a few batters, but the Cubs aren’t exactly a patient team at the plate. They are ready to swing right when they step into the batter’s box. Liriano is a -140 favorite in a game that features a low total of 7.0 runs. There are few aces on the mound tonight, making Liriano one of the top pitching options on the board. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Jorge Soler (FD: $3800, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.143

Kris Bryant (FD: $3600, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen (FD: $4500, DK: $5100)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.314 / wOBA: 0.412 / ISO: 0.228
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 / ISO: 0.240

McCutchen has to be excited to see a left-handed pitcher on the mound. In his 42 at-bats this season, only four of those have come against a southpaw. McCutchen has crushed left-handed pitching throughout his career and 2014 was no exception. He finished the season with a .397 wOBA and a .240 ISO against lefties. He also has a career .417 OBP against Travis Wood.

Additional Plays:

Josh Harrison (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B/OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.372 / ISO: 0.142

Baltimore at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Bud Norris (FD: $7400, DK: $6900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.65 / xFIP: 3.98 / SIERA: 3.86
K/9: 7.57 / K%: 0.202 / BB%: 0.076

TOR vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 0.187 (Rank: 11)

Norris is one of those pitchers that needs a lot of run support to be a productive pitcher in daily fantasy baseball. He’s going to give up a few runs per game, so his appeal really hinges on whether or not he can pick up the win. Even though his price point is attractive, the matchup is far from it. The Blue Jays have one of the best offenses in all of baseball and this game will take place at the Rogers Centre, which may be the best hitter’s park in the American League. Norris has more risk than reward attached to him tonight. Rating = 4

Mark Buehrle (FD: $7800, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.39 / xFIP: 4.09 / SIERA: 4.32
K/9: 5.3 / K%: 0.139 / BB%: 0.054

BAL vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.346 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 0.174 (Rank: 6)

Buehrle is one of those pitchers that seems to get lucky more often that not. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, yet he still managed to post a 3.39 ERA last season with half of his starts coming at the Rogers Centre. His limited strikeout potential hurts his fantasy appeal, as does his matchup against the Orioles. Baltimore is currently ranked fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Unless the Orioles decide to rest Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, and Manny Machado (which they won’t), Buehrle can be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Adam Jones (FD: $5100, DK: $5400)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.281 / wOBA: 0.340 / ISO: 0.188
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 / ISO: 0.260

Does anyone else remember Kenan & Kel on Nickelodeon?

Who loves left-handed pitching? Adam Jones loves left-handed pitching. Is it true? He does, he does, he does. He finished 2014 with a .434 wOBA and a .260 ISO against southpaws and he’s back at it again this season with a .907 wOBA. He also sees a ballpark boost with this game being played in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. If you are paying up for an outfielder outside of Coors Field, it should be Jones.

Additional Plays:

Steve Pearce (FD: $3600, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: 1B/OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.472 / ISO: 0.378

Manny Machado (FD: $3300, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.281 / ISO: 0.125

Toronto

Dioner Navarro (FD: $2400, DK: $3700)

Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: C)
BA: 0.274 / wOBA: 0.315 / ISO: 0.121
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.120

Bud Norris gives up a much higher wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate, which is why Navarro is the top option from the Blue Jays. He is a switch-hitter that has nearly identical splits from both sides. He is a very cheap option at catcher tonight and he should be batting in the heart of the Blue Jays’ lineup. Navarro also has a strong track record against Norris.

Additional Plays:

Jose Bautista (FD: $4900, DK: $5600)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.227

Josh Donaldson (FD: $4400, DK: $5800)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.149

NY Yankees at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi (FD: $7800, DK: $6100)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.37 / xFIP: 3.78 / SIERA: 3.91
K/9: 6.4 / K%: 0.166 / BB%: 0.05

DET vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.371 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 0.181 (Rank: 9)

How lucky was CC Sabathia last night? Whether it was diving grabs in the outfield, picking off runners at first, or Miguel Cabrera grounding into double plays, he had some luck on his side last night. Targeting pitchers against the Tigers is not a worthwhile strategy in daily fantasy baseball. They are one of the best offenses in baseball and are currently ranked 1st in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Eovaldi has great velocity, but he has been unable to turn that into an elite strikeout rate. I’m looking for the Tigers’ offense to come alive in this one. Rating = 4

Kyle Lobstein (FD: $6200, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.35 / xFIP: 4.27 / SIERA: 4.35
K/9: 6.18 / K%: 0.165 / BB%: 0.085

NYY vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 0.203 (Rank: 16)

Lobstein gave up three earned runs in his first start of the season, while only striking out three batters in five innings of work. His upside is limited thanks to his low strikeout potential and he draws a tough matchup against the Yankees, who are currently ranked 10th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Lobstein should get plenty of run support, but he’s not on my radar tonight, as there are 29 other pitching options in this large slate of games. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3600, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.216 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.182
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.138

Teixeira was the only source of production for the Yankees last night, as he hit a solo shot off of Alfredo Simon in the second inning. Big Teix is a switch-hitter that derives most of his power from the right side of the plate, sporting a career .392 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Teixeira will get overlooked tonight, making him an intriguing tournament option.

Additional Plays:

Alex Rodriguez (FD: $3800, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)

Detroit

Victor Martinez (FD: $4100, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.335 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.230
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 / ISO: 0.199

DraftKings raised Martinez’s price from $4,100 to $4,800, which makes me a little sad, because he was criminally under-owned at that price point. He is still in play tonight though, as Nathan Eovaldi gave up a .336 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. Meanwhile, Martinez posted a .390 wOBA and a .199 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Additional Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4900, DK: $5600)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B/3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.385 / ISO: 0.203

J.D. Martinez (FD: $3900, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.379 / ISO: 0.205

Anthony Gose (FD: $3300, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.295 / ISO: 0.074

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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