MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-10 23:11:27

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

San Francisco at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Vogelsong (FD: $7200, DraftKings: $5800)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 4 .00 / xFIP: 3.96 / SIERA: 3.98
K/9: 7.36 / K%: 0.194 / BB%: 0.074
ARI vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 23 / K% Rank: 8

Analysis: Jake Peavy was scratched from his start, so Vogelsong is expected to start in his place on Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks. Vogelsong is coming off of an average 2014 campaign, where he finished with a 3.96 xFIP and a K/9 of 7.4. He has had a tough Spring and his struggles will likely continue against Arizona in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Rating = 4.5

Rubby De La Rosa (FD: $6200, DK: $6100)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 4.43 / xFIP: 4.03 / SIERA: 4.21
K/9: 6.55 / K%: 0.168 / BB%: 0.079
SF vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 15

Analysis: De La Rosa earned a spot in the Diamondbacks’ rotation, after a productive Spring. He is coming off of an average 2014 season where he posted as 4.03 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.6. De La Rosa has about the same appeal as his opponent, Ryan Vogelsong. The Giants have a very potent offense and he will be pitching in the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field. He doesn’t have enough upside to overcome the difficult matchup. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Angel Pagan (FD: $2900, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.300 / wOBA: 0.324 / ISO: 0.089
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 / ISO: 0.082

Analysis: Pagan will likely bat third again on Tuesday night. He had himself a game on opening day, going 3/4 with 2 doubles and 2 RBIs. He is a switch-hitter that has good numbers from both sides of the plate. If you look at his number from last season, he had a .350 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He is grossly underpriced on FanDuel at only $2900.

Buster Posey (FD: $, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.311 / wOBA: 0.371 / ISO: 0.179
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.164

Analysis: Posey is an elite catching option against De La Rosa and the Diamondbacks. He is known for his ability to hit left-handed pitching well, but he’s no slouch against right-handed pitching either. Last season he finished with a .366 wOBA against righties. De La Rosa is an average major league pitcher and Posey gets the added benefit of a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Secondary Plays:

Brandon Belt (FD: $3500, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.24

Nori Aoki (FD: $3100, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.297 / ISO: 0.076

Joe Panik (FD: $2400, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.296 / ISO: 0.054

Arizona

Ender Inciarte (FD: $2900, DK: $3400)

BA: 0.278 / wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.081
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.097

Analysis: Inciarte really came on strong at the end of last season. After the All-Star break, he hit over .300. He has decent power in his bat and he’s also capable of stealing bases. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against Vogelsong, who gave up a .346 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $4800, DK: $5200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.386 / ISO: 0.249

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs

Editor’s Note: Cardinals at Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn (FD: $8600, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.74 / xFIP: 3.81 / SIERA: 3.84
K/9: 8.0 / K%: 0.209 / BB%: 0.083
CHC vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 25 / K% Rank: 29

Analysis: Lynn is coming off of a year where he didn’t quite pitch as well as his ERA would suggest. His xFIP and SIERA were both a full run higher than his ERA. His K/9 of 8.0 is also a bit misleading, as he has a bad habit of walking batters. There were times last season where he barely made it through five innings after throwing 100 pitches. He does draw a favorable matchup against the Cubs though and it looks like there may be a strong wind blowing in from center field. Rating = 7

Jake Arrieta (FD: $8800, DK: $9000)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.53 / xFIP: 2.73 / SIERA: 2.83
K/9: 9.59 / K%: 0.272 / BB%: 0.067
STL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 20 / K% Rank: 4

Analysis: Arrieta was the bright spot in the Cubs’ rotation in 2014. He finished the season with a 2.73 xFIP and a K/9 of 9.6. He had an elite strikeout rate of 26% and he was able to pitch deep into games thanks to his ability to throw strikes. The Cardinals were average against right-handed pitching last season, but the addition of Jason Heyward should help this year. Arrieta is still a very strong play on Tuesday night. If you take the name away from the stats, you would think that he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Rating 8

Batter Grind Down

Editor’s Note: Cardinals at Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.

St. Louis

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Matt Carpenter (FD: $3900, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.104

Jason Heyward (FD: $3700, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.363 / ISO: 0.132

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4400, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.286 / wOBA: 0.397 / ISO: 0.24
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.253

Analysis: Rizzo was terrific against right-handed pitching last season, finishing with a .391 wOBA. While Lynn is a quality starter, he did give up a .314 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Rizzo can hit for both average and for power and he’s really the only batter from either team that stands out in this game.

Secondary Plays:

Chris Coghlan (FD: $3100, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.186

Miguel Montero (FD: $2900, DK: $3300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.322 / ISO: 0.131

Texas at Oakland

Pitcher Grind Down

Colby Lewis (FD: $6400, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 5.18 / xFIP: 4.36 / SIERA: 4.22
K/9: 7.03 / K%: 0.175 / BB%: 0.063
OAK vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Lewis was everyone’s favorite pitcher to stack against last season. He didn’t pitch quite as bad as most people thought though, as he did finish with a 4.36 xFIP and a K/9 of 7.0. Lewis is still one of the better pitchers to pick on, especially given his struggles this Spring. He finished with an ERA close to 10.0 in Cactus League play. He should not be on or anywhere near your radar, as he squares off against the A’s. Rating = 3

Jesse Hahn (FD: $7600, DK: $6000)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.07 / xFIP: 3.59 / SIERA: 3.73
K/9: 8.59 / K%: 0.229 / BB%: 0.105
TEX vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Hahn will be making his first start as a member of the A’s. He had some great success as a member of the Padres last season, but it doesn’t hurt that he was playing in the National League in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Hahn does possess a high-strikeout rate though. He finished with a K/9 of 8.6 last season, while striking out 23% of the batters that he faced. The Rangers offense looks potent on paper, but they did not look great at the plate last night. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Texas

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre (FD: $4200, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.16

Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $3000, DK: $3600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.329 / ISO: 0.14

Oakland

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3100, DK: $3900)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.123
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.135

Analysis: Zobrist made a splash in his first start with the A’s. He went 2/5 with a home run and a double on opening day. His price is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he remains an elite play against Lewis, who gave up a .373 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Zobrist is a switch-hitter that derives most of his power from the left side. Don’t be afraid to load up on the rest of the A’s bats here as well.

Secondary Plays:

Brett Lawrie (FD: $2900, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.177

Craig Gentry (FD: $2600, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.255 / ISO: 0.019

Stephen Vogt (FD: $2500, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.148

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen (FD: $7600, DK: $6700)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.54 / xFIP: 3.75 / SIERA: 3.85
K/9: 6.59 / K%: 0.176 / BB%: 0.045
TB vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 21 / K% Rank: 10

Analysis: Chen is one of those pitchers that rarely gets any love in the daily fantasy baseball world. He’s a very good big-league pitcher, but he boasts an average K/9 of 6.6, which tends to turn people away from him. He draws a decent matchup against a Rays’ team that was ranked 21st in wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. If he can pitch around Evan Longoria, he could very well post a quality outing here. There just isn’t enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration. Rating = 6

Nate Karns (FD: $6200, DK: $5000)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 4.5 / xFIP: 3.8 / SIERA: 3.24
K/9: 9.75 / K%: 0.265 / BB%: 0.082
BAL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 6 / K% Rank: 18

Analysis: Karns will be making his sixth career major league start on Tuesday night. He was expected to fight for the fifth spot in the Rays’ rotation, but here he is starting in their second game of the season. He has decent strikeout potential, as evidenced by his eight strikeouts in his last Spring start. Karns is a small favorite against the Orioles and at his price point, he certainly deserves consideration, especially on DraftKings at a price of only $6,000. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Manny Machado (FD: $3200, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.278 / wOBA: 0.332 / ISO: 0.153
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 / ISO: 0.165

Analysis: Machado went 0/3 with a walk on opening day. He was one of the many bats that disappointed. I still love his price point though, especially on FanDuel at $3,200. Machado hits both left and right-handed pitching well, and he actually had better power numbers against righties last season. HIs price will likely go up as the season progresses, which is why I like taking advantage of the depressed price point.

Secondary Plays:

Alejandro De Aza (FD: $2900, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.149

Travis Snider (FD: $2700, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.164

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria (FD: $3800, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.253 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.151
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.175

Analysis: Longoria hit a home run on opening day. He’ll look to make it two big games in a row, as he takes on Wei-Yin Chen and the Orioles. Longoria has always hit left-handed pitching well, finishing last season with a .351 wOBA and a .175 ISO. Those numbers are actually lower than those of the past few years.

Secondary Plays:

Asdrubal Cabrera (FD: $2800, DK: $3600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.151

Desmond Jennings (FD: $2800, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.365 / ISO: 0.222

LA Angels at Seattle

Pitcher Grind Down

C.J. Wilson (FD: $7300, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 4.51 / xFIP: 4.11 / SIERA: 4.23
K/9: 7.74 / K%: 0.198 / BB%: 0.112
SEA vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 28 / K% Rank: 15

Analysis: Wilson is coming off of a very disappointing 2014 season. He finished with a 4.11 xFIP and a K/9 of 7.7. He really struggled with his command, as evidenced by his walk rate of 11.2%. He pitched pretty well in the Spring, but he still had almost as many walks (6) as strikeouts (7). The Mariners used to be a team that we could pick on when they were facing a left-handed pitcher, but their lineup is much better against lefties now that they have Nelson Cruz in the mix. I’m not buying in on Wilson until he can prove that he is back to his 2013 form. Rating = 5

James Paxton (FD: $6600, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.04 / xFIP: 3.54 / SIERA: 3.8
K/9: 7.18 / K%: 0.195 / BB%: 0.096
LAA vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Paxton is an intriguing play against the Angels. He is a fairly large favorite in a game that features a low total of 6.5 runs. Paxton wasn’t overly impressive in the Spring, but he is healthy heading into the season, which is a big plus if you are a Mariners’ fan. Paxton pitched pretty well in his short stint with the Mariners last season, posting a 3.54 xFIP with a K/9 of 7.2. At his price point, he’s an interesting tournament option. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout (FD: $5100, DK: $5000)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.402 / ISO: 0.274
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 / ISO: 0.248

Analysis: If you are new to daily fantasy baseball, you will soon learn that Trout is about as matchup-proof as any player in the majors. His home run off of Felix Hernandez on opening day didn’t surprise anyone. Trout is the complete package in terms of fantasy production. He hits for average, he hits for power, he drives in runs, he scores runs, and he can steal bases.

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols (FD: $4000, DK: $4200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.173

Seattle

Nelson Cruz (FD: $4200, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.37 / ISO: 0.254
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 / ISO: 0.255

Analysis: The Mariners brought in Cruz for many reasons, but one of the most important was his ability to hit left-handed pitching. This is a left-hand heavy lineup that really needed a right-hand power bat. They’ve found it in Cruz. Last season he posted a .416 wOBA against left-handed pitching. He draws a fantastic matchup against Wilson, who gave up a .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Austin Jackson (FD: $2900, DK: $4000) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.328 / ISO: 0.08

Mike Zunino (FD: $2800, DK: $3600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.319 / ISO: 0.176

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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