MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 22nd

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-24 19:58:21

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber – The reigning AL Cy Young winner has dropped all three starts to open the 2015 season, but it certainly hasn’t been his fault. Kluber has allowed two earned runs in each of the three starts, but enters this afternoon’s game sporting an impressive 2.49 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. The White Sox were no match for Kluber last season in their five meetings, as he posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP (with 40 strikeouts) over 36.2 innings. Kluber’s 10.27 K/9 was the second best among qualified pitcher and he’s an excellent option in all formats. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10700 FD, $9900 DraftKings

Jeff Samardzija – 2015 hasn’t started the way Samardzija had hoped, but he’s progressively gotten better with each start and his 8 inning performance against a very dangerous Detroit lineup on Friday night was very encouraging. The Shark posted a career-best 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last season between his time with the Cubs and Athletics and his 23.0 K% is well above the league average. While I expect a nice outing from him, there are a couple of red flags here; 1) With Kluber opposing him, run support will likely be very limited, and 2) Left-handed batters have had a bit more success off of Samardzija in the past and this Indians lineup can easily roll out eight guys who swing from the left-side of the plate. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9500 FD, $8500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – He’s off to a slow start this season (partially thanks to a back injury), but Brantley posted a .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and can rack up fantasy points in a plethora of ways.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis. Carlos Santana

Chicago White Sox

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Jose Abreu

St. Louis at Washington

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey – After an uninspiring effort in first start of the season, Lackey was brilliant his last time out; tossing seven scoreless innings against Milwaukee while striking out eight batters. Lackey posted some fairly drastic home vs road splits last season (2.94 ERA and home versus a 4.73 ERA on the road), and unfortunately for him this game is at Nationals Park. The Nationals owned an impressive .325 wOBA at home last season and their lineup looks to finally nearing full health, but they’ve struck out at an alarming rate thus far this season and when Lackey’s on his game, he can be tough on anyone. His inconsistencies scare him away from my cash game rosters, but he’s an intriguing GPP candidate. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8100 FD, $7800 DK, $6250 FA, $14400 DD, $105600 FF

Doug Fister – Doug Fister is undoubtedly a tremendous asset for the Washington Nationals, but his pedestrian strikeout rates prevent him from being a top-tier fantasy option. After posting an impressive 16-6 record and 2.41 ERA in 2014, Fister has pitched very well in both starts so far this season. The tall right-hander was terrific at Nationals Park last season, posting an 8-2 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 11 starts. This Cardinals lineup has been sputtering along to start the season, but they rarely strikeout and they did smack Fister around a bit in their only meeting last season. Fister’s low ceiling makes him better served as a cash game play as a secondary pitcher on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $9000 FD, $7400 DK, $6100 FA, $13400 DD, $116500 FF

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward, Matt Adams

Washington

Bryce Harper – I love this matchup for Harper. Lackey is a bit of a stubborn veteran pitcher who will challenge Harper because he’s confident he can either over-power or outsmart the young lefty. However, Harper is not your usual 22 year-old at the plate and owns a .415 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the young season.

Secondary Plays:

Denard Span, Jayson Werth

Miami at Philadelphia

Pitcher Grind Down

Jarred Cosart – Cosart was roughed up in his last outing (5 earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Mets) and really struggled this spring as well, posting a 5.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in five starts. While the matchup against a Philadelphia team that owned just a .294 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season is a favorable one, Cosart’s strikeout numbers leave a lot to be desired and I’ll be avoiding him in all formats. Rating = 3

Salaries: $7500 FD, $6300 DK, $5750 FA, $10000 DD, $93700 FF

Cole Hamels – There’s something about the month of April that just doesn’t sit well with Hamels; after posting an ugly 6.75 ERA during the first month of the season in 2014, Hamels sports an unsightly 0-2 record and 5.00 ERA after his first two starts this season. Hamels had no trouble turning things around last season, as the southpaw posted a 6-4 record with a 1.94 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 14 starts after the All-Star break. Tonight, he’ll face a Miami team that posted just a .297 wOBA away from Marlins Park last season and who he pitched admirably against on five occasions in 2014. His 23.9 K% is rock solid and he should finally see some adequate run support tonight. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $9800 FD, $9200 DK, $7000 FA, $16700 DD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – Simply put, Stanton crushes left-handed pitching. The slugger posted a .453 wOBA against left-handed pitching and his .287 ISO highlights his raw power. Cole Hamels is clearly no slouch, but Stanton does already own three home runs off of the southpaw.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Morse

Philadelphia

Cosart is not an intimidating pitcher by any means, but there just aren’t any elite plays in this rather feeble-hitting Phillies lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Chase Utley

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel – Hammel sports an ugly 5.11 ERA after his first two starts (one of which was in Coors Field), but his 2.90 xFIP and .351 BABIP both suggest that he’s been rather unlucky. Hammel owned a 2.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP (8.61 K/9) for the Cubs prior to being traded to Oakland last season and pitched admirably against this Pirates team in four different meetings. With that said, Pittsburgh owned both the fourth best home wOBA last season (.333 wOBA) and fourth best wOBA against right-handed pitching (.329 wOBA) during the 2014 season. I’m expecting a nice season from Hammel, but with him owning a 4.29 ERA on the road last season, this isn’t the ideal time to deploy him into your cash game lineups. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8100 FD, $7200 DK, $6100 FA, $12700 DD, $98000 FF

Vance Worley – For a guy who posted a 2.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 110.2 innings last season, Worley certainly doesn’t get draw much attention. While his advanced stats suggest that he’ll be unable to duplicate last season’s success, his 3.54 xFIP in 2014 is still rock solid. Worley thrived at PNC Park last year, going 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in seven home starts. He’s a better pitcher than his reputation suggests, but this is an improved Chicago lineup and Worley doesn’t possess the strikeout numbers most fantasy players are looking for. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $6100 DK, $5350 FA, $8500 DD, $110200 FF

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Kris Bryant – Bryant may have had a tough debut, but he’s been locked in ever since. The phenom has picked up eight hits (3 doubles) with five walks and six RBI’s during his current four-game hitting streak. The sky is the limit for the 23-year-old and he’s quite likely as cheap right now across the industry as he’ll be all season.

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler

Pittsburgh

No elite plays

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte

Baltimore at Toronto

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez – An ejection ruined what started off as a terrific start against the Red Sox on Friday, but the right-hander has now tossed 10.2 scoreless innings thus far in 2015. With that said, Ubaldo struggled his way to an ugly 4.81 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 22 starts last season. His fastball velocity has fallen off the charts lately and his 5.53 BB/9 last season was far and away the worst rate among all pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings. This dangerous Blue Jays lineup posted the league’s second highest wOBA against right-handed pitching last season (.331 wOBA), and also crushed the ball at home (.336 wOBA). Ubaldo has the ability to pitch a gem anytime he takes the mound, but he’s best served for GPP only use in this tough matchup. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $6600 DK, $5750 FA, $8500 DD, $75100 FF

Aaron Sanchez – The second-overall pick in the 2010 draft dazzled fans in limited action last season (1.09 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in 33 innings), but his struggles during spring training have no carried over to his first two starts on the regular season. Sanchez can touch the mid-to-upper 90’s with his fastball, but like many young pitchers, he’s struggling with his control. He was a ground-ball machine last season (65.9 GB%) and he’ll need to keep the ball down against this Baltimore team that led MLB in homeruns last season if he has any chance for success. He’s a very risky play, but is still a GPP option. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $4800 DK, $4750 FA, $8500 DD, $87800 FF

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Last season was a disaster for Davis, but seven hits in his last six games, his bat looks to be coming alive. It’s a small sample size, but Davis owned Sanchez in their prior meetings; going 3 for 3 with a pair of home runs.

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, Alejandro De Aza

Toronto

Dalton Pompey – Left-handed batters posted a .354 wOBA off of Ubaldo last season and Pompey exploded for three hits and three runs scored yesterday. Pompey is one of the Blue Jays best prospects and brings a four-game hitting streak into this favorable home matchup. Enjoy the discounted price.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Devon Travis

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

Have a Question for Notorious about Today’s Games? Check out Expert Chat

Monday through Friday for FanDuel and DraftKings Incentives Members – 6:00 PM EST