MLB Monday: FSL Pitcher Value Rankings
We’ve got a short-schedule Monday today; there are just nine games going and they are all late games. Whereas I dread the short days in NBA, I look forward to them in MLB because going all out on research for 300 players can get a bit overwhelming some days. There’s pretty good balance among the pitchers avaialble today, screaming for you to make a value pick. So that’s precisely where I started my research. Today I’m playing on FSL. There scoring for Pitchers is:
| Pitcher Scoring – FSL |
|---|
| Each 1/3 Inning Pitched (IP) = 1 pt |
| Strike Out (K) = 1 pt |
| Win (W) = 8 pts |
| Hit Allowed (H) = -1 pt |
| Walk Allowed (W) = -1 pt |
| Earned Run Allowed (ER) = -2 pts |
Essentially, a pitchers projected points =
(Odds of Win * 8) + Proj. Ks + Proj. IPs + (Proj. ER * -2) + (Proj. IP * WHIP * -1)
On FSL where your player’s price is related to their season long average you can, reverse-engineer if you will, a good estimate of what that player should produce for their cost since you know their Season averages (100 FSL Pts ~ 0 F-ppg). After calculating that value, I’m taking today’s Projected Points for each Pitcher and subtracting their Price on FSL to rank my value plays for the day. For Odds of Win and Earned Runs, I took a look at a friendly online sportsbooking site to help project the values. To project Ks, WHIP, ER and IPs, I took a look at each pitchers season averages and weighed that with their opposing teams batting performance in similar categories. It’s not an exact science, but it will give you a leg-up on the competition most days. Last there’s the weather column. At the moment, the two games to monitor appear to be Boston vs. Minnesota and Texas vs. Oakland. With 20% chances at each uncovered park, I’m going to currently downgrade any players on these four teams by 10% to be safe. Below are my estimated pitcher projections for Monday, their cost on FSL, what that cost roughly translates to in Fantasy ppg, and their subsequent value rating. I wouldn’t select your player based on value alone. You want to assemble the team that’s going to score the most points, so you’ll have to analyze what you like for batting to make a real decision. But projected points and value should be your two main guiding factors in this table.
Monday Pitchers – FSL
| Player | Weather | Proj. Points | Wtd Proj. Points | FSL Cost | FSL Translated Cost | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mat Latos, SD | 1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 100 | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| Zack Greinke, MIL | 1 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 134 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Brandon Morrow, TOR | 1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 140 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| Chad Billingsley, LA | 1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 124 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Ervin Santana, ANA | 1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 100 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| CJ Wilson, TEX | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 140 | 3.0 | -0.9 |
| Jhoulys Chacin, COL | 1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 176 | 5.7 | -1.1 |
| Edwin Jackson, CHW | 1 | -1.4 | -1.4 | 100 | 0.0 | -1.4 |
| Javier Vazquez, FLA | 1 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 100 | 0.0 | -1.5 |
| Travis Wood, CIN | 1 | -1.6 | -1.6 | 100 | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| Max Scherzer, DET | 1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 155 | 4.2 | -1.8 |
| Josh Beckett, BOS | 0.9 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 202 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| Jeff Karstens, PIT | 1 | -2.7 | -2.7 | 109 | 0.7 | -3.3 |
| Chris Capuano, NYM | 1 | -3.6 | -3.6 | 100 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| Aneury Rodriguez, HOU | 1 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 100 | 0.0 | -4.0 |
| Nick Blackburn, MIN | 0.9 | -6.0 | -5.4 | 100 | 0.0 | -5.4 |
| Trevor Cahill, OAK | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 202 | 7.7 | -6.8 |
Cameron MacMillan
RotoGrinders.com Fantasy Content Manager