MLB Player Props for Thursday, 7/16: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Aaron Nola, Juan Soto, and Kyle Schwarber? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, July 16, 2026. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Thursday! Major League Baseball returns from the All-Star Break tonight with a matchup between the Mets and Phillies. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
As always, it’s important to keep an eye on the MLB weather report before committing to any wagers. The forecast in Philadelphia has the temperature above 90 degrees, with 10 mph winds blowing across the field toward the right field foul pole, which is a boon for offense.
Below, you can find three of my favorite picks for Thursday, July 16th!
Best MLB Player Props for Thursday, July 16th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 PM ET on Thursday, July 16th:
- Aaron Nola Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
- Juan Soto Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
- Kyle Schwarber Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Aaron Nola UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
FANDUELThe lineup for the Mets tonight features only one strikeout-prone hitter – Francisco Alvarez. The rest of the lineup features players who have been doing a good job putting the ball in play since the beginning of June.
Nola is undoubtedly rested coming out of the All-Star Break. That said, the team also has a fully rested arm barn behind him. Nola’s 5.34 FIP and 1.57 WHIP across the platoon coupled with his 1.64 WHIP when facing the lineup for a third time this season could be enough to warrant an early hook. If that’s the case, it could be difficult to get to 6 strikeouts.
Juan Soto UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-103, Novig)
Aaron Nola has struggled to a 5.34 FIP and 1.57 WHIP across the platoon in 2026, which makes this a good matchup for Soto and all of the other LHB for the Mets. Yet there might be less value on total bases props than bettors may think.
Nola is walking 10.8% of the LHB he has faced this year. Soto is a patient hitter who has walked in 18.8% of his trips to the plate against RHP. Walks don’t count toward total bases, and every walk takes away an opportunity to compile total bases. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Nola work around Soto, and Philadelphia has talented southpaws they could throw at Soto in the latter frames.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140, BetMGM)
BETMGMSchwarber didn’t have a strong showing in the All-Star Game, but that shouldn’t scare bettors away from trusting him tonight in a good matchup against Christian Scott. Schwarber is favorably positioned in the 2-hole for this evening’s game, directly behind Trea Turner and in front of Bryce Harper. The weather is on the hitter-friendly side, and there are no travel concerns to be monitored here given that Philadelphia hosted the All-Star Game. This is good value for a talented hitter.
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