MLB Player Props for Thursday, 5/7: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Christian Scott, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Griffin Jax? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, May 7, 2026. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Thursday’s 10-game MLB slate features 6 afternoon contests, which should keep baseball fans busy at work. It also means that there are plenty of betting opportunities throughout the day!
As always, bettors should start the day by taking a look at the MLB weather. Today’s slate once again features some colder temperatures around the country, but the oppressively-cold temperatures from earlier in the week seem to have finally cleared – hitters will take what they can get.
Below, you can find three of my favorite picks for Thursday, May 7th!
Best MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 7th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Thursday, May 7th:
- Christian Scott Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Griffin Jax Over/Under 9.5 Outs Recorded
Christian Scott UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120, BetMGM)
BETMGMThere is obviously a healthy amount of risk with betting an under on a hits allowed prop at Coors Field, but there are reasons to think this number is too high. Scott threw only 74 pitches last week against the Angels, despite allowing only 2 earned runs on 3 hits through 5 innings. The Mets are likely to be very careful with his workload in 2026, considering he’s never thrown 100 innings in any professional season to this point.
Thus, it’s more likely than not that Scott is done after 5 innings today. If he’s not done after 5 innings, it’s probably a result of him performing extremely well, in which case he could still be under this number.
Perhaps most importantly – the Rockies have 7 lefties in this afternoon’s lineup. Scott doesn’t have a particularly deep arsenal to handle the opposite side of the platoon, which could mean more walks than hits. Simply, there are a lot of ways in which Scott could stay under this number on Thursday.
Fernando Tatis Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-118, BetMGM)
BETMGMHe still doesn’t have a home run this season. His 75 wRC+ is miles off of his previous career-worst mark at the plate. That said, Tatis has a higher barrel% and hard-hit% this season than when he had a 131 wRC+ in 2025.
His biggest issue is that he’s not pulling the ball in the air enough. That is likely a correctable issue, and it might be easier to do against the soft-tossing Matthew Liberatore than it would be against many other arms. This is good value if looking for a hitter prop tonight.
Griffin Jax OVER 9.5 Outs Recorded (-139, Novig)
Last week, Jax told the media that he’s “working through transitioning to a starting role.” He threw 31 pitches across 2.1 innings on May 26, then increased his workload to 45 pitches on May 2 against the Giants. Tonight, he should be good for around 60 pitches before handing things off to Chase Solesky behind him.
Though Jax hasn’t yet worked into the 4th inning in his new role, it would make sense for Tampa Bay to get him as many “ups” as possible today. The cooler weather, and the fact that Boston is traveling back home without an off day, could help Jax get deeper into this game than we have seen from him in recent weeks.
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