MLB Player Props Today: Freeman, Merrifield, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (May 18)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Freddie Freeman, Whit Merrifield, and Nestor Cortes? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday, May 18, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB player props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! MLB fans only have six games on today’s slate, with four of those contests already underway as of this writing. That leaves us with two games to attack on the betting market this evening – both of which have a scheduled first pitch of 7:07 p.m. EST or later.
We went 3-0 yesterday in this article, improving to 13-1-1 across the last five posts. During the month of May, we are 36-16-3 on non-Home Run props. We are now 50-24-1 on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for May 18!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-4
Dinger Tuesday: 2-6
Hitter: 30-23-2
Outs Recorded: 19-7
Stolen Base: 0-2
Strikeout: 31-17-1
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MLB Player Props Today
- Freddie Freeman o1.5 total bases
- Whit Merrifield u1.5 total bases
- Nestor Cortes less than 5.5 hits allowed
Freddie Freeman o1.5 total bases (-125), BetMGM
From a mechanical standpoint, Freddie Freeman has one of the most smooth swings in Major League Baseball. Since the beginning of 2016, Freeman owns a .309 batting average and a .939 OPS, proving that he is a constant threat to get on base, if not into scoring position right out of the batter’s box. Freeman already had an elite line drive% in 2022, (27.5%), but has increased that number even further in 2023 (30.8%). Tonight, Freeman gets a favorable matchup against Adam Wainwright, who has major red flags when he is facing left-handed hitters. Take the over here.
Whit Merrifield u1.5 total bases (-155), BetMGM
Entering play on Thursday, Whit Merrifield owns a respectable .281 batting average against left-handed pitching in 2023, but his .661 OPS and .094 ISO against southpaws reveal that the vast majority of his contact is going for singles rather than extra-bases. Taking a deeper dive into the metrics, Merrifield has an unimpressive 25.0% HardHit% against left-handed pitching this year, further supporting the notion that he simply doesn’t have much power in these situations. The under is a good look in this spot this evening.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Nestor Cortes less than 5.5 hits allowed, PrizePicks
Nestor Cortes has allowed seven hits and six hits, respectively, in each of his last two starts, which is likely the only reason we see this market number as high as it is. Before those two outings, Cortes had allowed five hits or fewer in five consecutive trips to the mound. In 2022, Cortes allowed five hits or fewer in 22 of his 28 turns through the rotation – and he never allowed more than four hits against the Toronto Blue Jays. Simply, Cortes is due for some positive regression – trust him to get the job done on Thursday night.
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