MLB Player Props for Friday, 4/4: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Pavin Smith, Corey Seager, and Joc Pederson? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, April 4th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Friday’s MLB slate got started earlier this afternoon, with a number of teams playing during the day to begin the weekend. That being said, there are still 7 games left to get underway this evening, giving the betting community plenty of time to find a few plays to their liking.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, we are +47.42u on regular season MLB player props in this article. And below, you can find my 3 picks for Friday, April 4th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Friday, April 4th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:05 PM ET on Friday, April 4th:
- Pavin Smith Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Corey Seager Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Joc Pederson Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Pavin Smith OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100, BetMGM)
Smith is one of the most underrated hitters in all of baseball. Playing in a limited role from 2022 to 2024, he has hit 25 home runs and posted a 98 wRC+ across a span of 204 games. He walked in 12.2% of his plate appearances (PA) in that stretch, which ranked 22nd out of 366 players who have logged 600+ PA since the beginning of 2021.
Even those aggregate numbers might be doing Smith a disservice. In 2024, he had his most productive season to date, posting a stellar 142 wRC+, with the majority of his trips to the plate coming against RHP. Among 549 players with at least 150 PA last season, Smith was 1 of only 28 hitters to post greater than a 10% walk rate while striking out in 20% of his PA — a list that includes names such as Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte, Mookie Betts, and other MVP-caliber talent.
Smith gets a great matchup tonight against Jake Irvin, who has struggled to a 4.96 FIP against LHB in 2024.
Corey Seager OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150, BetMGM)
Seager hasn’t been tearing the cover off of the baseball to begin 2025, but there doesn’t appear to be much reason for concern. He’s still been very selectively aggressive, walking in over 10% of his plate appearances. Tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against Zack Littell, who has historically allowed LHB to elevate the ball well. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Seager break out of his mini-slump on Friday.
Joc Pederson OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100, BetMGM)
Pederson is off to a slow start this season, but this is a great matchup for him to find some success, facing the soft-tossing Zack Littell. Even more noteworthy, Littell’s velocity was down in his first start from where it was in 2024. Pederson finished last year with a 154 wRC+ against RHP, hitting .281 with a double-digit walk rate and 22 home runs. He is well-positioned to do some damage this evening.
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