MLB Player Props for Friday, 8/29: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Matthew Liberatore, Cade Horton, and Robbie Ray? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, August 29th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Friday! All 30 MLB teams are in action to begin the weekend, which means plenty of betting opportunities on the slate. Entertainment value should also be high, with a couple of top prospects making their MLB debut – Jonah Tong for the Mets and Payton Tolle for the Red Sox.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Friday, August 29th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Friday, August 29
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Friday, August 29th:
- Matthew Liberatore Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Cade Horton Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Robbie Ray Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts
Matthew Liberatore UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-185, BetMGM)
BETMGMLast season, Liberatore worked mostly as a reliever, finishing the year with 86 innings pitched. This season, he’s operated exclusively as a starter and has already thrown 126.1 innings. Consequently, the Cardinals have been mindful of his workload coming out of the All-Star Break. He hasn’t thrown more than 85 pitches since July 5. Tonight, he will face a Cincinnati offense that has struggled against southpaws, but it still appears doubtful that we will see Liberatore work into the 6th inning, especially with multiple piggyback options rested in the St. Louis bullpen. Liberatore, who has averaged an inefficient 4.1 pitches per batter faced during the last 30 days, would likely need to be abnormally efficient (and effective) this evening to have a chance at more than 5 innings of work.
Cade Horton UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-140, bet365)
BET365Horton has pitched into the 6th inning in 5 of his last 6 starts, excluding his outing against the Brewers, in which he left the game early with a blister issue. However, the only reason that Horton has been able to work deep into games is because he’s been impossibly efficient of late.
Since the All-Star Break, Horton owns a 0.49 ERA, 2.61 FIP, and 0.78 WHIP, but the underlying metrics indicate that he’s been quite lucky. During that span, he’s benefited from a likely unsustainable .189 BABIP and 97.9% strand rate. Tonight, he will be pitching at Coors Field, which has a more spacious outfield, so some of his good luck on balls in play might vanish with more ground to cover for his outfielders. There is also the fact that the Cubs’ arm barn is fully rested, and Horton hasn’t faced more than 22 batters in a game since July 3. If the Rockies have any amount of offensive success on Friday, they should be able to send Horton to the showers before the 6th inning.
Robbie Ray UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-115, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSRay is averaging 93.5 mph on his 4-seamer in 2025, but he averaged only 91.3 mph on that offering in his most recent turn through the rotation against the Brewers. In that game, Ray had an anemic 6.3% swinging-strike rate, his worst showing in any of his 27 starts this season. The net result was 3 earned runs, 4 walks, and 0 strikeouts in 5 innings of work. Tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against a Baltimore offense that has the 4th-highest strikeout rate in baseball against LHP during the last 14 days. That being said, Ray doesn’t earn many called strikes, and he’s not likely to generate many swinging strikes if his velocity doesn’t bounce back. It’s only expected to be around 60 degrees at first pitch this evening in San Francisco, which isn’t going to help Ray’s velocity. It’s entirely possible that we are seeing some fatigue-related effects after Ray threw only 3.1 innings in 2023 and 30.2 innings in 2024. The Orioles should be able to put the ball in play at a decent rate.
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