MLB Player Props for Friday, 7/11: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Friday from Mitchell Parker, Joe Ryan, and Matthew Liberatore? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Friday, July 11th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Friday! Major League Baseball started the weekend a little bit early with some day baseball in Chicago earlier this afternoon. Still, there are 15 games to get underway as of this writing, leaving plenty of options for the betting community to consider adding to their cards this evening.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Friday, July 11th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Friday, July 11
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM ET on Friday, July 11th:
- Mitchell Parker Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Joe Ryan Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Matthew Liberatore Over/Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
Mitchell Parker OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
Recently, the Brewers have struggled against southpaws. During the last 7 days, they rank 26th in wRC+ in addition to having one of the highest swing rates of any offense in that span. Parker hasn’t been particularly effective of late, but he pounds the strike zone and tends to work efficiently as a result of not earning many strikeouts. The net result should be a low pitch count through 5 innings assuming he can do a reasonably good job keeping runs off of the board. There is value on the over in a favorable matchup.
Joe Ryan OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-180, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSRyan hasn’t been the most efficient pitcher in baseball during the past month, averaging over 4 pitches per plate appearance, but he gets a great matchup against a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching during that span. Entering play, Ryan has completed 6 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts, with the lone exception coming against a very patient Milwaukee lineup on June 20. Pittsburgh is closer to league average in terms of swing%, which should help Ryan work a little bit more efficiently, giving him a great chance to get deep into the game.
Matthew Liberatore OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSLiberatore gets a favorable matchup on Friday against an Atlanta offense that has struggled against southpaws recently, ranking 25th in wRC+ across the last 14 days. Liberatore struggled to begin June, but he has thrown the ball well during his last 4 turns through the rotation, posting a 2.25 ERA, 3.38 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP. He’s limited quality contact in that span, which has allowed him to complete 6 innings in 3 of those outings. He should have a good chance to keep his pitch count low in this matchup against an aggressive Atlanta lineup.
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