MLB Player Props Today: Gausman, Kershaw, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (May 21)
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday from Kevin Gausman, Clayton Kershaw, and Masataka Yoshida? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Sunday, May 21, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB player props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Sunday! Today’s MLB slate features 16 games, beginning with the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds at 11:35 a.m. EST on Peacock. The rest of the action gets underway at 1:35 p.m. EST, with four of those games featuring a scheduled first pitch of 4:05 p.m. EST or later.
We went 1-2 yesterday in this article, but we are still 18-4-2 across the last eight posts. During the month of May, we are 41-19-4 on non-Home Run props. We are now 53-24-1 on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for May 21!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 2-6
Hitter: 30-26-3
Stolen Base: 0-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 1-0
Outs Recorded: 20-7
Strikeout: 32-17-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4
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MLB Player Props Today
- Kevin Gausman o6.5 strikeouts
- Clayton Kershaw u18.5 outs recorded
- Masataka Yoshida u0.5 hitter strikeouts
Kevin Gausman o6.5 strikeouts (-134), FanDuel
On the surface, Kevin Gausman does not have the most favorable matchup in the world today, facing a Baltimore Orioles offense that ranks eighth in strikeout percentage across the last 14 days and fourth in strikeout percentage across the last month of action. However, a deeper dive into the data reveals a Baltimore lineup that has been making much more contact against southpaws than they have against right-handed pitching. During the month of May, the Orioles rank 22nd out of 30 teams in strikeout percentage – punching out in nearly a quarter of their plate appearances. Gausman has eclipsed this market number in seven of his nine starts to begin 2023 and will have the added benefit of the strikeout-friendly Gabe Morales calling balls and strikes this afternoon. Take the over in this spot.
Clayton Kershaw u18.5 outs recorded (-190), BetMGM
The juice on this play will not align with most bettors’ dietary restrictions, but an edge is an edge. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been particularly careful with Clayton Kershaw early in 2023, allowing him to throw more than 94 pitches only twice in his first nine trips to the mound. Kershaw has a reasonably favorable matchup today against a St. Louis Cardinals offense that ranks 16th in OPS and sixth in ISO against left-handed pitching during the month of May, but the Dodgers have a pretty rested bullpen entering play on Sunday – making it unlikely that Kershaw will be pushed longer than is necessary in this spot. Other than Tyler Cyr, no member of the Los Angeles arm barn has thrown back-to-back days. Only Yency Almonte has thrown more than 26 pitches across the last three days. Expect 90-ish pitches from Kershaw in six innings this afternoon, but no more than that. Parlay this look at Caesars sportsbook if you feel the need to reduce the juice.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Masataka Yoshida u0.5 hitter strikeouts, PrizePicks
Across the last few days, PrizePicks has sadly not had this option available. Rest assured, it is back for Sunday’s slate! Masataka Yoshida combines elite plate discipline with strong contact skills to make contact at an extremely high rate in the batter’s box, evident by his 9.5% strikeout rate to begin 2023. Today, he gets a matchup against Michael Wacha. Wacha has proven himself capable of getting swings and misses against left-handed batters early in the year, but his 29.6% strikeout rate is wildly inconsistent with the 23.4% strikeout rate he posted in 2022. The discrepancy is even more notable when considering that Wacha’s pitch mix against left-handed batters remains relatively unchanged from last season. Regression to the mean is coming for Wacha – expect Yoshida to contribute to that regression today by making contact in his plate appearances.
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