MLB Player Props for Monday, 4/21: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Clarke Schmidt, Nick Lodolo, and Austin Wells? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, April 21st. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Monday’s 8-game MLB slate began earlier this morning with Boston’s annual Patriots’ Day game at Fenway Park. The good news for the betting community is that there are still 7 games left to get underway as of this writing, giving everyone plenty of time to find a few plays to their liking ahead of first pitch tonight.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Monday, April 21st!
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Best MLB Player Props for Monday, April 21st
Here are my top player prop bets for today, Monday, April 21st:
- Clarke Schmidt Over/Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
- Nick Lodolo Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Austin Wells Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Clarke Schmidt OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-160, FanDuel)
Schmidt made his 2025 regular season debut last Wednesday against the Royals, recording 17 outs on 73 pitches. Though he’s unlikely to be that efficient on a regular basis, he is still likely good enough to get through 5 innings. The Yankees have a rested Ryan Yarbrough available in long relief this evening, but the rest of their arm barn is quite taxed. New York shouldn’t be overly eager to get into their bullpen on Monday. If Clarke is even reasonably efficient, 5 innings of work is a very realistic outcome against a lukewarm Cleveland offense.
Nick Lodolo UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+145, bet365)
Lodolo is off to a great start this season, but it’s difficult to overlook some of the advanced metrics, which portend at least some negative regression in the near future. Ahead of first pitch on Monday, Lodolo has allowed an 89.8% contact rate on swings at pitches in the zone. He’s also generating very few swings-and-misses, and he’s been extraordinarily lucky when it comes to BABIP and strand rate so far in 2025. Miami’s offense ranks 9th in wRC+ this year against southpaws. They could force Lodolo to the showers before the end of the 6th inning in this matchup.
Austin Wells OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110, BetMGM)
Wells has been scuffling of late, posting a .182 batting average and 75 wRC+ across his last 17 games. That being said, he’s positioned to get out of his slump this evening, hitting leadoff against Gavin Williams. Williams enters play with a 5.25 xERA and 1.32 WHIP, meaning that he’s allowing quite a bit of hard contact in addition to struggling to keep runners off of the base paths. Cleveland’s arm barn is in rough shape heading into the new week too. Wells should have opportunities to earn his way on base in front of Aaron Judge.
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