MLB Player Props for Monday, 4/7: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, April 7th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Monday’s MLB slate began earlier this afternoon in the Motor City, but there are still 10 games left to get underway later this evening, giving the betting community plenty of time to find a few plays to their liking.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, we are +44.42u on regular season MLB player props in this article. And below, you can find my 3 picks for Monday, April 7th!
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with sports betting? Use our Underdog promo code & PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS for over $1,000 in sign-up bonuses for fantasy pick’em contests today.
Best MLB Player Props for Monday, April 7th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Monday, April 7th:
- Justin Steele Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Justin Steele Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
- Hayden Wesneski Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
Justin Steele OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-178, FanDuel)
Steele isn’t off to the most inspiring start in 2025, with a 6.89 ERA, 6.34 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP through his first 3 turns in the rotation. That being said, he’s also faced the Dodgers (in Tokyo), the lefty-killing Diamondbacks on the road, and the Athletics (in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league).
Today, he gets his most favorable matchup to date, pitching in extremely pitcher-friendly playing conditions at Wrigley Field. At first pitch, the temperature is forecast to be 35 degrees with 15 mph winds blowing in from left field at first pitch. Texas is yet to face a southpaw starter this season, but they should have no fewer than 7 RHB in the lineup, which means it’s going to be difficult to hit the ball out of the ballpark for them.
Since the beginning of 2024, Steele is averaging an efficient 3.7 pitches per batter faced. The juice is likely to be worth the squeeze.
Justin Steele UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-175, bet365)
Entering play on Monday, the Rangers’ offense owns the highest swing% of any team in baseball. This aggressive approach has led to them averaging the 2nd-fewest pitches per plate appearance in the big leagues. Though Steele has struggled on the surface to begin the new campaign, he’s still been relentlessly pounding the strike zone, posting a strong 65.7% first-pitch strike%. Combining his ability to pound the zone with the Rangers’ aggressive approach, Steele should be able to avoid issuing more than 1 free pass.
Hayden Wesneski OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-104, FanDuel)
On Sunday, Houston used Rafael Montero and Luis Contreras for 39 pitches each. They also used Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Bryan King – each of their top-3 high-leverage relievers. Suffice it to say, the Astros would like to get some length out of Hayden Wesneski this evening to begin the new week. Wesneski was inefficient in his first regular season start of 2025, but he’s shown an ability to be more efficient over a larger sample size since the beginning of last year.
Seattle’s offense has been roughly league-average against RHP through 10 games, but they could be in worse shape on Monday if Victor Robles isn’t in the lineup after leaving yesterday’s game on a cart due to injury. Wesneski should have an opportunity to come back out for the 6th inning if he’s even mildly effective.
Image Credit: Imagn