MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Monday (8/26)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Max Fried, Mitch Keller, and Bailey Ober? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for today – Monday, August 26, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Monday! Today’s 12-game MLB slate began earlier today with a pair of afternoon affairs, but there are still 10 games left to get underway as of this writing. There are plenty of marquee names on the bump this evening, including Max Fried, Bailey Ober, Zack Wheeler, Mitch Keller, and more – meaning plenty of betting opportunities for the community to consider!
Since the beginning of last season, we are 149-81 (64.8%) and +29.74u on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season. A bettor who has tailed every player prop, including batter props, in this article during that time period is +44.88u overall.
Below, we have 3 plays worth considering for Monday’s action!
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MLB Player Props Today
Max Fried Over/Under 18.5 Outs Recorded
Mitch Keller Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Bailey Ober Over/Under 18.5 Outs Recorded
Max Fried UNDER 18.5 Outs (-162, Bally)
Fried hasn’t pitched as poorly in recent weeks as his surface-level numbers suggest he has. That being said, this is still a pitcher who has pitched into the 7th inning only once in his last 10 turns through the rotation. Minnesota’s offense has been extremely poor against southpaws, ranking 26th in OPS and wRC+ in the last month, but they are close to the league average in both walk rate and strikeout rate during that time, so there shouldn’t be too many quick at-bats. The juice is likely to be worth the squeeze here.
Mitch Keller UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
Keller is coming off of a 9-strikeout performance against the Rangers in his last start, but he still generated only a 12.1% swinging-strike rate. Tonight, he gets to face a Cubs lineup that has the 6th-lowest swinging-strike rate in the MLB during the last two weeks – much tougher than the Rangers lineup, which ranks 20th during that same stretch.
Chicago is top 10 in contact% on swings at pitches in the zone and out of the zone across the last two weeks. This is a strong regression spot for Keller, who has reverse platoon splits against righties and should see 5+ righties in the lineup tonight.
Bailey Ober UNDER 18.5 Outs (-177, Bally)
Ober has been excellent since the All-Star Break, posting a 2.03 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 0.75 WHIP across those 6 starts. Still, as good as he’s been, Ober has also been experiencing some good luck, which has supported his overall success. Ober has benefited from a .173 BABIP and 82.1% strand rate since the All-Star Break, both numbers that are largely uncontrollable, and both of which deviate sharply from the league average. Atlanta isn’t a very aggressive offense, ranking only 21st in swing% during the last 30 days. Ober is unlikely to go longer than 18 outs on tonight, even in a semi-favorable matchup with a relatively taxed arm barn behind him.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 12-7
Outs Recorded: 5-4
Earned Runs Allowed: 5-3
Hits Allowed: 2-0
Walks Allowed: 1-2
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 6-13-2
Combined Record: 46-39-2 (54.1%)
Image Credit: Getty Images