MLB Player Props for Monday, 5/12: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Paul Skenes, Tyler Mahle, and Michael King? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, May 12th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Major League Baseball has 11 games on tap to begin the new week, with Monday’s first action scheduled for a 6:10 p.m. ET first pitch in Cleveland. There are plenty of exciting names on the bump this evening, including Freddy Peralta, Paul Skenes, Michael King, and more – meaning plenty of options for the betting community to consider adding to their card.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Monday, May 12th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Monday, May 12th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 PM ET on Monday, May 12th:
- Paul Skenes Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Tyler Mahle Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Michael King Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
Paul Skenes UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+150, bet365)
As good as Paul Skenes was as a rookie, he was still inefficient, averaging 4.1 pitches per batter faced. This season, we have continued to see Skenes struggle with his efficiency, averaging 4.2 pitches per batter faced across the last month. He will have to contend with a talented, patient Mets lineup, which leads all of baseball in wRC+ against RHP during the last 2 weeks. Skenes is supremely talented, but his recent command issues and general inefficiencies give the under some value at this price.
Tyler Mahle UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+128, bet365)
On the surface, Tyler Mahle looks as though he has finally achieved his lofty potential, with a 1.48 ERA through his first 8 turns in the rotation this season. However, the underlying metrics suggest that he’s been far more lucky than good. During the last month of action, his production has been buoyed by a .250 BABIP, high LOB%, and some good luck on fly balls. Colorado’s offense is aggressive and not particularly productive, but regression is coming sooner rather than later for Mahle. At this price, the under could prove to be a worthwhile risk – even in a favorable matchup.
Michael King UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+146, FanDuel)
During the last month of action, Michael King has been one of the luckier starting pitchers in baseball. In his last 5 starts, he’s benefitted from a .189 BABIP, high LOB%, and an extremely low HR/FB ratio. Those numbers make even less sense when looking at his batted-ball data, which reveals rather average barrel rates and hard-hit rates allowed. The Angels have been underwhelming offensively since Mike Trout last played, but this is simply a play on the price. If King continues to struggle with his efficiency, it could be difficult to make it through 6 innings this evening. The Padres have a rested arm barn behind him as well.
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