MLB Player Props for Sunday, 7/20: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday from Nick Pivetta, Gavin Williams, and Merrill Kelly? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Sunday, July 20th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Sunday! Major League Baseball will wrap up the weekend with a 15 game slate, beginning at 12:05 PM ET with the Roku game of the week between the Giants and Blue Jays. The final game of the day is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN, with Tarik Skubal and the division-leading Tigers taking on the Rangers.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Sunday, July 20th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Sunday, July 20
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 12:05 PM ET on Sunday, July 20th:
- Nick Pivetta Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Gavin Williams Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Merrill Kelly Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
DRAFTKINGSNick Pivetta UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100, DraftKings)
Pivetta allowed only 1 earned run in his final 25.1 innings of work heading into the All-Star Break. That being said, none of his underlying metrics were discernibly different from his prior 4 starts, in which he struggled to a 6.23 ERA and 5.07 FIP. In fact, even over those 4 starts, Pivetta allowed a 49.2% hard-hit rate, which is well north of the league average. Pivetta also only threw 60% first-pitch strikes and only had an 11.9% SwStr% in that span – neither of which is overly impressive either.
Pivetta isn’t a bad pitcher, by any means, but it’s also difficult to argue that he’s an ace. San Diego has a very rested arm barn behind him as they go for a series victory against Washington, and the presence of 4 lefties at the top of the Nationals lineup creates the conditions for an early hook in the 6th inning if Pivetta runs into any trouble.
Gavin Williams UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120, DraftKings)
This season, Williams has completed 6 innings in only 7 of his 19 starts. Even taking his most favorable data split, since the beginning of June, he’s managed to record 18+ outs in only 4 of 8 starts.
During the last 30 days, Williams has continued to be inefficient, averaging 4 pitches per batter faced. Today, he will have to navigate an Athletics offense that is around the league average in swing% in recent weeks. Cleveland also has an extremely rested bullpen behind Williams as they go for a series victory. Don’t be surprised if manager Stephen Vogt has a short leash on his starter today.
Merrill Kelly UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+115, DraftKings)
Kelly was throwing the ball well heading into the All-Star Break, delivering a 3.10 ERA in his last 5 starts. However, a 4.16 FIP and a .243 BABIP during that stretch suggests that he might have been slightly more lucky than good, especially when considering that he allowed a double-digit barrel%. Arizona has a very rested bullpen behind Kelly as they go for a sweep. With all of the team’s high-leverage options rested and available behind him, he’s not likely to have a very long leash.
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