MLB Player Props for Thursday, 7/3: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Chris Bassitt, Cade Horton, and Seth Lugo? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, July 3rd. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Thursday’s MLB slate features 10 games, 8 of which have a scheduled first pitch of 6:45 p.m. ET or later. It could be a fun night for offenses around the league, with very few top-of-the-line starters on the bump. Of course, that means it could be a fun night for the betting community as well!
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Thursday, July 3rd!
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with sports betting? Use our Underdog promo code & PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS for over $1,000 in sign-up bonuses for fantasy pick’em contests today.
Best MLB Player Props for Thursday, July 3
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:45 PM ET on Thursday, July 3rd:
- Chris Bassitt Over/Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
- Cade Horton Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Seth Lugo Over/Under 18.5 Outs Recorded
Chris Bassitt OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-135, FanDuel)
FANDUELAhead of first pitch on Thursday, Toronto has one of the most taxed bullpen situations of 2025 to date. Jeff Hoffman, Yariel Rodriguez, and Brendon Little have each appeared in 3 of the last 4 days. Yimi Garcia threw 34 pitches yesterday, so he’s not guaranteed to be available. Braydon Fisher and Chad Green would each be making their 3rd appearance in 4 days if used today.
Bassitt allowed 8 earned runs in 2 innings last Saturday against the Red Sox, but he had good June numbers prior to that point – 3.12 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 1.00 WHIP. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Blue Jays give Bassitt an extended leash today, having already won the first 3 games of this series. He should have every opportunity to work into the 6th inning.
Cade Horton OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (+115, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSHorton has struggled to a 6.52 ERA across his last 4 starts, but there is at least some reason to believe that there are better days ahead. Horton has pounded the zone relentlessly of late, with a 68.5% first-pitch strike rate since June 8. He’s not earning many strikeouts, but his 12.4% swinging-strike rate suggests that has more to do with sequencing than stuff. From a betting perspective, Horton has also been pretty efficient, averaging only 3.6 pitches per batter faced in the last 30 days. Facing an aggressive Cleveland offense, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Horton have a chance to work into the 6th inning.
Seth Lugo UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-180, DraftKings)
DRAFTKINGSDuring the last 30 days, Lugo has been one of the least efficient starting pitchers in baseball, averaging 4.1 pitches per batter faced. During that span, Lugo has also been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game, posting a .221 BABIP despite allowing more hard contact and a higher average exit velocity than the league-average pitcher. Seattle is an aggressive offense that can sometimes make a lot of quick outs, but they also have a chance to do some damage against Lugo, playing in front of their home fans. Lugo threw 107 pitches in his most recent outing, so there could be some fatigue.
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