MLB Player Props for Thursday, 5/22: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Jack Flaherty, Trevor Williams, and James Wood? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, May 22nd. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Thursday’s MLB evening slate features 4 games, beginning at 6:40 PM ET. There is some inclement weather around the east coast, which has already caused a postponement in Boston and could cause some issues elsewhere.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Thursday, May 22nd!
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Best MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 22nd
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch this evening scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Thursday, May 22nd:
- Jack Flaherty Over/Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
- Trevor Williams Over/Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
- James Wood Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jack Flaherty OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (-130, DraftKings)
Regardless of results tonight, Flaherty is likely to have a chance to get through 6 innings for the Tigers. They used a bullpen game in their series finale against St. Louis yesterday. Entering play tonight, they have used Will Vest in 3 of the last 5 days, in addition to having used Tyler Holton and Brenan Hanifee in consecutive days. Beau Brieske, Brant Hurter, and Chase Lee each threw 23+ pitches yesterday as well.
DRAFTKINGSCleveland’s offense ranks only 23rd in wRC+ against RHP during the last 2 weeks. Despite Flaherty’s recent struggles, he’s well-positioned to give his team some length.
Trevor Williams OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-150, DraftKings)
Williams owns a ghastly 6.86 ERA across his last 4 turns in the rotation, but his 3.70 FIP during that stretch suggests that he’s probably been more unlucky than bad. This theory is further supported by the fact that he’s allowed only a 4.2% barrel rate in that span, with close to a league-average rate of hard-hit balls.
DRAFTKINGSAtlanta’s offense ranks only 13th in wRC+ against RHP during the last 2 weeks, so this isn’t a particularly tough matchup for Williams. Cooler temperatures could also help Williams, creating some value on the over.
James Wood OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+105, BetMGM)
Wood has been on a tear of late, hitting .409 with a home run and 6 RBIs across his last 6 games. His recent run of success has been part of a larger assault against opposing pitchers in 2025 – he enters play with a 160 wRC+ against RHP this season. Tonight, he will get to face AJ Smith-Shawver, who has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this season. Smith-Shawver ranks in only the 20th percentile in xERA, 23rd percentile in average exit velocity, and 32nd percentile in ground-ball rate, but he has somehow managed to spin a 2.33 ERA through 7 starts as a result of good BABIP luck and a high strand rate. The weather isn’t great in the nation’s capital this evening, but Wood should have opportunities to be productive, nonetheless.
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