MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Tuesday (8/13)
What kind of performances can we expect on Tuesday from Erick Fedde, Javier Assad, and Kyle Harrison? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and today – Tuesday, August 13, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Tuesday! Coming off of a sweep in this article yesterday, we have a 15-game MLB slate on tap for this evening. The action begins in Baltimore at 6:35 p.m. ET, concluding with 4 West Coast games scheduled for a 9:38 p.m. ET first pitch or later.
Since the beginning of last year, we are 140-75 (65.1%) +30.33u on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season. A bettor who has tailed every player prop, including batter props, in this article during that time period is +45.47u overall.
Below, we have 3 plays worth considering for Tuesday’s action!
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MLB Player Props Today
Erick Fedde Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Javier Assad Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Kyle Harrison Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Erick Fedde OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135), DraftKings
Erick Fedde hasn’t looked great in either of his first 2 starts with the Cardinals, allowing a combined 6 earned runs across 10 innings. Tonight, he has the added difficulty of being a fly-ball-prone pitcher making a start in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. Across the last 30 days, Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher in baseball out of 104 pitchers to throw 20+ innings and to allow a higher barrel% than Fedde. Expect Cincinnati to have some quality at-bats early this evening, putting Fedde in high-stress situations. I think 3 earned runs seems more probable than not here.
Javier Assad UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-120), BetMGM
There aren’t many pitchers throwing the ball worse than Javier Assad right now. Since July 13, Assad has only 11 strikeouts in 19.2 innings of work. The underlying metrics don’t give much reason for optimism, with his 7.2% swinging strike rate and 74.1% contact rate on pitches out of the zone being a strong sign that he’s not overpowering anyone. Assad doesn’t benefit from many called strikes, either, which makes it hurt even worse that the hitter-friendly Alfonso Marquez will be calling balls and strikes in Cleveland this evening. It’s difficult to see a path for Assad to get to 4 strikeouts on Tuesday against a high-contact Cleveland lineup.
Kyle Harrison UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-165), Bally
This is an extremely favorable matchup for Kyle Harrison, pitching in very pitcher-friendly weather, with a pitcher-friendly umpire, against an Atlanta offense that has really struggled against southpaws in recent weeks. That being said, Harrison has been on a very tight leash lately, making it unlikely that he sees the 6th inning in this spot unless he’s dealing a shutout or has an abnormally low pitch count.
Harrison was pulled in his most recent start against Washington after only 61 pitches in a game in which he had allowed only 2 earned runs. San Francisco’s arm barn isn’t in the best shape after using four guys out of the bullpen yesterday, but it still seems unlikely that they will push Harrison here. It’s also worth noting that Harrison could be having his workload managed, given that he’s only 22 years old and has already thrown a career-high number of innings in 2024. The under makes sense in this spot.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 10-6
Outs Recorded: 3-3
Earned Runs Allowed: 3-0
Hits Allowed: 2-0
Walks Allowed: 1-1
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 6-13-2
Combined Record: 40-33-2 (52.9%)
Image Credit: Getty Images