MLB Player Props for Wednesday, 4/30: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Wednesday from Pablo Lopez, Lucas Giolito, and Cade Povich? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Wednesday, April 30th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Wednesday’s 16-game MLB slate began earlier this afternoon in Cincinnati, with Game 1 of a doubleheader set between the Cardinals and the Reds. Still, there are 12 games left to get underway as of this writing, giving bettors plenty of options to consider adding to their card for today’s action.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Wednesday, April 30th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Wednesday, April 30th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 5:10 PM ET on Wednesday, April 30th:
- Pablo Lopez Over/Under 18.5 Outs Recorded
- Lucas Giolito Over/Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
- Cade Povich Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Pablo Lopez UNDER 18.5 Outs Recorded (-170, FanDuel)
Lopez has a great matchup against a light-hitting Cleveland lineup, but this is still only his 2nd start since being activated off of the injured list. Lopez threw 101 pitches last Friday against the Angels, so pitch count isn’t a concern, but efficiency could be a problem. Lopez averaged 4.6 pitches per batter faced against the Angels and is averaging over 4 pitches per batter faced this month. The Guardians have one of the more aggressive lineups in baseball, but the Twins have a rested arm barn behind Lopez, so they are likely to be content with 6 innings from their starter here.
Lucas Giolito OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-180, DraftKings)
Giolito will make his long-awaited return to an MLB mound this evening against the Blue Jays. After opening the season on the injured list, Giolito made 5 starts in the minor leagues prior to tonight, so pitch count shouldn’t be a concern. He faced as many as 22 batters in a game at Triple-A, throwing 85 pitches in that game. This evening, he gets a favorable matchup against Toronto, an offense that ranks 29th in wRC+ against RHP across the last 2 weeks. During that span, they have also been very aggressive at the plate, ranking 7th in swing%. Giolito should have every opportunity to get through 5 innings.
Cade Povich OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130, bet365)
Povich has the unenviable task of facing the Yankees. Entering play, the Yankees rank 6th in wRC+ against LHP across the last 30 days. Povich has struggled to miss bats this season, and those problems have been compounded by the fact that he’s allowed a high rate of line drives and hard contact in the air. Baltimore used their primary long-relief options in yesterday’s game, so Povich could be asked for some length – which might not be a good thing in terms of run prevention.
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