MLB Predictions For Today: Oakland Athletics Betting Favorites Versus Cardinals
After a night off on Friday, the Cardinals look to continue their recent winning ways. While the Cardinals currently lead the National League by a slim margin, the Athletics find themselves a half-game out of the second American League Wild Card spot. Both teams need wins. Here is a sports betting breakdown of tonight’s West Coast contest.
The visiting Cardinals will send 10-5 starter, Dakota Hudson to the mound tonight as a +130 underdog. The Oakland Athletics will answer with veteran Mike Fiers. Fiers possesses a 9-3 record and is amidst a long string of quality starts for the Athletics. As expected, Fiers is a considerable favorite at -150 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
MLB Predictions for Today — Athletics (-150) vs. Cardinals (+130), Over/Under 10.5 Runs
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Stat of the Night
A noted fly ball pitcher, Mike Fiers finds himself amidst an impressive streak of quality starts. Dating back to May, Fiers has 13 consecutive quality starts for the Athletics — routinely giving his team six innings or more and keeping them in ball games. While Fiers is halfway to the MLB record of 26 shared by Bob Gibson and Jacob deGrom, the hurler would certainly settle for keeping his team in the playoff hunt.
Prop Shop – Home Run Props on FanDuel Sportsbook
At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook is the only book offering home run props for the late-night affair in Oakland. Dakota Hudson is a groundball pitcher (58.2%) that gives up plenty of hard contact. Conversely, Mike Fiers — and his fly ball ways (39.4%) — is greatly helped by a ballpark that FanGraphs rated third-worst for home runs last season.
Since Hudson possesses a massive groundball lean in his contact numbers, I want to focus on extreme flyball hitters. Matt Olson (+370) leads the Athletics in fly balls versus right-handed pitching at 48.5%. If taking a dart in this ballpark, I prefer using Olson who bring a track record of power-hitting at his home park.
With the Cardinals, I want to be price sensitive. The likelihood of a home run — or lack thereof — makes me want the best odds paired with the best fly ball rate. Against righties, Paul DeJong leads the Cardinals with a 43.4 FB%. DeJong carries a +460 price tag tonight — which provides a better payoff than the safer Paul Goldschmidt (+390).
Pitching Primer
The visiting pitcher, Dakota Hudson, is a groundball pitcher that does not miss many bats. Hudson’s 16.9% strikeout rate will be a concern against a projected lineup that only strikes out at a 20.7% clip. The Athletics possess a .195 team ISO versus right-handed pitching. The extra-base power may be an issue for a pitcher with a 37.4 Hard% in a cavernous ballpark. In his most recent start, Hudson fell victim to a drubbing at the hands of the Houston offense — yielding five runs across four innings of work and giving up eight hits and two walks.
A 10.2 BB% means the Athletics will certainly put together innings with runners on base. The lack of strikeout ability and the hard-hitting nature of both pitcher and hitter means that Hudson will be in jeopardy for some big innings pitching in the American League.
On the other hand, Mike Fiers pitches in a ballpark suited to his skillset this season. Like Hudson, Fiers pitches to a lot of contact with a 15.9% strikeout rate. Yet, unlike Hudson, Fiers has been able to limit the walks this season (7.9%). Fiers fly ball issues are mitigated by a ballpark with plenty of room for fly balls and plenty of foul ground for popouts.
Fiers aforementioned streak of quality starts keeps the Athletics in the game in his starts. The Cardinals will gain a DH, tonight, but with a projected .175 team ISO, Fiers should be able to stay out of trouble even if a couple of fly balls leave the yard. With Fiers, his 5.37 xFIP leaves plenty of room for his 3.54 ERA to regress. However, his home ballpark will likely protect his combination of high fly balls and low strikeouts.
The MLB Pick — Oakland -150 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
The pitching matchup feels pretty even on the surface but the shift from National League to American League gives me pause for young Dakota Hudson. Hudson will not have the easy out at the end of the batting order he has grown accustomed to. With peripheral statistics that leave Hudson open to big innings — such as a high walk rate and high hard-contact rate — Hudson could be in for a few tough innings on the road.
Conversely, Fiers is accustomed to pitching against American League lineups and limits base runners a bit better than Hudson — or so his peripherals indicate. While he is certainly on the lucky side of his peripheral numbers, the Cardinals lineup does not evoke enough fear to move me away from Fiers, tonight.
I am not crazy about the -150 number. That said, the line available on FanDuel Sportsbook was -156 when beginning this article. The line has slightly moved just within the time of this exposition. I would guess that by late night on the East Coast, the underdog will be bet more liberally in a matchup of two reasonably matched teams. For the sake of the article being published, I will take the Oakland Athletics to win at -150 on FanDuel Sportsbook but I will keep an eye on this line expecting a better number.
Check back tomorrow for the Sunday Night Baseball pick for the Yankees versus the Red Sox.
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