MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Monday, May 20th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Monday, May 20th
- Mookie Betts MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Taj Bradley MORE Than 7.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Framber Valdez LESS Than 6.0 Strikeouts
- Mitchell Parker MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Ryan Weathers LESS Than 16.5 Outs
Mookie Betts MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
We can get away with ignoring hitting on this slate, but if we’re gonna play a hitter, it’s Mookie Betts for MORE than 2.5 total bases (DEMON), projected by us for 2.2. Betts gets to face lefty Joe Mantiply, and Betts is a one-man wrecking crew against southpaws — .444 wOBA, .311 ISO, 12% barrel rate. His DEMON boost should be at least 3.0 today, and it isn’t, so we should play him. His hits+runs+RBI DEMON projection is only 2.5, and his standard FPTS projection is only 8.0. Projected for 2.5 and 10.0, respectively, those are solid plays too.
Mantiply is opening a bullpen game for the D-backs, but Slade Cecconi is projected to be the long-man. We’re not afraid of him either. Cecconi has allowed a 9.5% barrel rate to righties, and Betts has a .414 wOBA, .237 ISO, and a 9.9% barrel rate against RHP.
Taj Bradley MORE Than 7.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
PrizePicks’ standard projection for Taj Bradley is 6.0, which has great value in its own right while it’s on the board, as we have him projected for 7.2; but we’ve gotta have exposure to this DEMON boost to 7.5. The projected lineup for the Red Sox has a 24.6% K rate against RHP this season, and Bradley has a 28% K rate and 11.05 K/9 since the start of the 2023 season. Projected for only 86 pitches, we have to still like his leash, considering his 6.8% BB rate through 44 hitters this season, in which he struck out 7 Yankees in 6 IP and 6 Red Sox in 5 IP. We don’t love that he’s going another time through this order without much of a time-lapse, but the stuff is electric enough to disregard that he just faced this team. Our projection is just too close to ignore.
Framber Valdez LESS Than 6.0 Strikeouts
We have a decent sample of Framber Valdez not putting hitters away this season. He only has a 7.61 K/9, despite a 25.1% whiff rate and an 11.3% SwStr rate. He’s getting ahead in counts but is forcing a ton of ground balls instead of logging Ks. Sure, he struck out 8 A’s in his last start, but we’re looking at only 4 Ks against the Tigers in 7 IP the start before, 3 Ks against the Mariners in 5.1 IP the start before that (MARINERS!), and only 6 Ks against the Rockies in 5 IP before that. The Angels aren’t the comical strikeout victims against LHP that they can be against RHP, as their projected lineup only has a 21% K rate. Valdez can log a ton of outs today and easily fall short of 6 Ks. We have him projected for 5.1.
Mitchell Parker MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
This is a squeeze play, where we’re just playing our projections against a DEMON boost. Mitchell Parker isn’t a great pitcher, but the Twins aren’t anything scary against LHP. Minnesota’s projected lineup only has a .301 wOBA, .129 ISO, and 4.5% BB rate against LHP this season, while Parker has hit 16 outs in half of his 6 starts. This should be another one of those days, as we have him projected for 15.1 outs.
Ryan Weathers LESS Than 16.5 Outs
The ballpark is highly favorable to pitching, and the Brewers have been striking out a lot against LHP this season, but Ryan Weathers is bad, and the Brewers’ projected lineup has a .185 ISO and 10.3% BB rate against LHP this season. Since the start of last season, Weathers only has a 17.3% K rate to go with a 9.4% BB rate. Milwaukee has shown that they don’t need homers to drop 10 runs on people. We should like them to knock Weathers around and out of this game early. We have Weathers projected for only 14.8 outs.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
Another great day to target pitching outs over Ks and hitters. We can apply a lot of the logic we employed in this space today for about a dozen plays. Make sure you’re utilizing our browser extension and constantly check in on the MLB PrizePicks tool since it’s frequently updated. Today, I like playing a high volume of contests, maxing out the plays on each ticket with at least half being outs plays, as that’s where I think the PrizePicks projections are most off.
Image Credit: Getty Images