MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Thursday, May 30th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Thursday, May 30th
- Bobby Witt MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Shawn Armstrong MORE Than 1.5 Strikeouts
- Spencer Arrighetti MORE Than 15.5 Outs and 6.0 Strikeouts
- Logan Gilbert LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
- Cody Bellinger MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Bobby Witt MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Chris Paddack has given up a ton of power to righties, which has always been a problem for him. He’s surrendered a 13.8% barrel rate over a 46.2% hard-hit rate and a 31.2% fly-ball rate this season across 111 righties faced. Witt has a .222 ISO and 12.7% barrel rate on a 52% hard-hit rate against RHP. We have him projected for 2.5 total bases on the nose. Applying the DEMON boost makes this one of the best total bases plays on the board.
Shawn Armstrong MORE Than 1.5 Strikeouts
Openers and strikeouts are tough because the volume won’t be there. We only have Armstrong projected for 31 pitches. The Rays could switch him out for another opener. He could strike out no one, or he could strike out 3 guys, but 1.5 is about as good as we’re gonna get from PrizePicks in this situation. And it’s just fine, as we have Armstrong projected for 2 strikeouts.
Spencer Arrighetti MORE Than 15.5 Outs and 6.0 Strikeouts
Arrighetti walks a lot of guys, so his volume is always threatened, but the Astros have given him a long leash, and the Mariners strike out a ton. Arrighetti brings his 10.27 K/9 to face a Mariners projected lineup with a 24.9% K rate against RHP. Arrighetti has surpassed 5 innings in just 2 of his last 5 starts, but the K upside in this matchup has him projected by us for 15.9 outs and exactly 6 Ks on 98 pitches. The pitch count is what put him over the hump for us to raise his floor and ceiling. Arrighetti for MORE than 15.5 outs is one of the top-3 plays on the board, according to our MLB PrizePicks tool.
Logan Gilbert LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Betting against Gilbert is never fun, but betting against the Astros striking out is usually a strong play. Gilbert is one of baseball’s best active pitchers, but he isn’t a strikeout machine. He has just a 8.78 K/9, while the projected lineup for the Astros has only a 19% K rate against RHP. We have Gilbert projected for 16.2 outs, and he might need 20 just to get to 5 Ks against Houston.
Cody Bellinger MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Bellinger is always risky because of his soft contact, but he doesn’t strike out, and this is a high-contact spot against Colin Rea, who’s allowed a 9.4% barrel rate to lefties. Bellinger doesn’t bring a high frequency of hard hits to the table, but he brings a high frequency of fly balls (34.2%) against a guy with a 50.2% hard-hit rate allowed to lefties. Bellinger has high max-EV events. This is a great spot for him to get a hold of a couple in the air at well over 100 mph. We have Bellinger projected for 2.2 total bases, so his 1.5 DEMON boost projection is probably a full base too low.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
There’s some good stuff to exploit, but we should adjust our volume to the small slate, despite the high amount of juicy plays. I like maxing out the plays within our contests today, jamming multiple DEMONs in just about every ticket, as today’s smaller slate is one to go for big rewards on lower risks.
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