Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Packers at Vikings
Week 16 and Monday Night Football both culminate in the north when the Minnesota Vikings welcome the Green Bay Packers for a divisional showdown. Despite losing Dalvin Cook to injury, online sports betting sites favor the Vikings by nearly a touchdown. Here is a preview of tonight’s pivotal NFC North matchup.
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Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
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Spread: Minnesota Vikings -5.5
57% of bets backing Green Bay, per VegasInsider.com.
Over/Under: 47.0
71% of bets on the over.
The Under is 5-1 in the Packers’ last six games. The Over is 5-1 in the Vikings’ last six games.
Injury Report and Analysis
The injury report can be summarized with two words — Dalvin Cook. Cook’s 1654 all-purpose yards and 13 touchdowns are not easily replaceable especially when the backup running back is hurt as well. Alexander Mattison is very unlikely to play which leaves Minnesota with third-string back, Mike Boone. Boone has 21 carries in 2019 with a 4.6 yards per attempt average. He scored two touchdowns after Cook went down in Week 15. Adam Thielen was absent from the injury report throughout the week and will be a full go for tonight’s contest.
The Packers’ report is pretty clean coming into Monday Night so Aaron Rodgers will have his full complement of weapons for the important road game. If the Packers can pull off the upset against the Vikings and then win in Week 17, they will sew up a first-round in the NFC playoffs. The Vikings also have a lot to play for with this the first of two home games to close out 2019. Already guaranteed a spot after the Rams lost on Saturday night, the division is still up for grabs if the Vikings can win out and the Packers somehow lose next week on the road to the Lions.
The Packers’ defense was pretty stingy in the Week 2 matchup between the two rivals with Jaire Alexander and Kevin King stifling the Vikings’ top two targets. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen combined for six catches and 120 yards in the first meeting after terrorizing the Packers during the 2018 season. The Vikings could perhaps lean on the pass game a bit more without Cook but will likely look to pick on the Packers’ leaky rush defense. The Packers’ defense has been very tough for opposing pass games (55.56% completion percentage over the last three games) but averages 120.9 rushing yards allowed per game on the ground. The Vikings average 31 rushes per game and will likely look to exploit the Packers even with Boone toting the rock. Boone will likely be a popular daily fantasy play for DraftKings Showdown lineups.
The Vikings, meanwhile, do not allow much on the ground but are a bit more generous to opposing passers. The Minnesota defense allows a 65.27% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. Look for the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of an indoor stadium and try to throw the ball around the yard. Davante Adams beat the Vikings’ secondary for 7 catches and 106 yards and has seen double-digit targets in five of the last six games. Adams should be heavily involved.
With playoff positioning riding on tonight’s matchup, both teams will come to this game extremely motivated. The Packers can secure a bye and some home games with a couple of victories while the Vikings can usurp control of the NFC North if things shake out favorably. The first step to that outcome would be a big victory at home against the Packers on Monday Night. To quote Booger McFarland (probably), “Both teams are going to be very motivated to win this game.”
The Monday Night Football Pick
In a very meaningful division game, 5.5 points feel like a lot of points. The game opened with at -4.5 and the line movement places a bit of value back on the Packers. While a key number has not been surpassed, I am happy to grab this line in what should be a tight divisional contest. The Vikings already secured their playoff spot and the Packers are playing for an opening bye. This game could go down to the wire and if that’s the case, I want the points. I will take Green Bay and the points.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers +5.5
Monday Night Football Betting Picks — First Touchdown
DraftKings Sportsbook normally offers a promotion for each primetime football game on first touchdown bets. If the player you bet on doesn’t score the first touchdown but scores a touchdown at any time, you will receive your bet back as a free bet. Just be sure to opt into the promo before placing your bet. Here are a few options.
Mike Boone +550
Davante Adams +950
Kyle Rudolph +1300
Monday Night Football Player Props at Monkey Night Fight
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Here are my favorite picks from Monkey Knife Fight for Monday Night Football in their “More or Less Format”.
Aaron Rodgers More 250.5 Passing Yards
Stefon Diggs Less 71.5 Receiving Yards
Davante Adams More 5.5 Receptions
Mike Boone More 65.5 Rushing Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images