Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Dolphins vs. Saints Odds & Picks

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-12-27 19:50:37

Dolphins vs. Saints odds have been on the move this week due to Covid issues in New Orleans. Follow along as Nick Galaida previews the spread and over/under alongside NFL betting tips, picks, and predictions for Monday Night Football.

Dolphins vs. Saints Betting Odds

This evening’s Monday Night Football battle between the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome is not the most highly-anticipated matchup of all-time, but the contest has tremendously important playoff implications for both teams.

Entering play, both teams are 7-7 on the season. A victory for Miami would catapult them into a tie with the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, and Las Vegas Raiders for the final playoff spot in the AFC. A victory for New Orleans would pull them into a tie with the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles for the final two playoff positions in the NFC. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams looking to improve their postseason chances, pricing the Dolphins as a field goal favorite on the spread over the Saints.

Dolphins Preview

Miami’s season appeared to be in ruins after an abysmal 1-7 start to the campaign. However, the return of Tua Tagovailoa has helped the Dolphins to six consecutive victories. It is worth noting that only one of Miami’s six wins during that stretch came against a winning team, but victories count all the same in the NFL. Still, this is a Miami team that is likely to be humbled sooner rather than later. Tagovailoa has thrown three interceptions in his last four games, despite the weak schedule. Tagovailoa has thrown for more than 244 yards in a game only once since Halloween. The Dolphins boast one of the worst offensive lines in football, which is going to make it extremely difficult to run the ball effectively tonight. The Dolphins’ offense could come crashing down to earth against their toughest defensive opponent in months.

On the defensive side of the ball, Miami will certainly benefit from the fact that New Orleans is on their fourth different starting quarterback in 2021. Nevertheless, this is a Miami defense devoid of talent, despite allowing 17 points or fewer in five of their last six games. Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah are strong presences on the defensive line. Jevon Holland and Xavien Howard are two strong players in the secondary. Yet, the rest of this unit is extremely exploitable–most notably at linebacker. Even facing a rookie making his first career start, this defense is not a lock to turn in a solid performance.

Saints Preview

New Orleans shocked the entire NFL community last weekend when they went to Raymond James Stadium as a double-digit underdog, but left with a 9-0 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints are once again underdogs this evening, with Ian Book slated to make his first career start in this one after Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian both landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Perhaps most importantly, Terron Armstead carries a questionable designation into this one. His presence on the field could be a huge boon for an otherwise struggling offensive line.

Even if Armstead plays, and even if Alvin Kamara has a productive evening–the Saints path to victory in this one runs through their defense. After pitching a shutout against the vaunted Buccaneers’ offense last week, this group gets a far more favorable matchup against Miami. The Saints’ defense has an enormous advantage at the line of scrimmage in this one. Marcus Lattimore should be able to neutralize DeVante Parker, with Marcus Williams and P.J. Williams preventing any Paulson Adebo gaffes from turning into big gains. Only the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, and Denver Broncos have held opposing signal callers to a lower passer rating this fall. Expect dominance from this defense on Monday Night Football.

Monday Night Football Picks & Prediction

It is not often that an NFL total is priced below 40 points, but the current consensus market price at over/under 37 points is justified. Both of these offenses are likely to struggle mightily this evening. Tagovailoa is going to have a difficult time throwing the ball anywhere on the field against one of the best secondary units in the NFL. New Orleans is likely to have an extremely conservative gameplan with Ian Book making his first career start. Bet on defense being the star of the show in this one. Take the under.

PICK: Under 38 (-110)

Props: Alvin Kamara 21.5 Receiving Yards, PrizePicks

Don’t live in a state with online sports betting? No problem. You can still get in on the action with DFS NFL props at PrizePicks.

As I touched on in my Monday Night Football props article, the Saints will look for some easy early completions for their rookie quarterback and Kamara is the perfect target. I already liked over 26.5 receiving yards at sportsbooks for Kamara, who has 25+ receiving yards in six of his 10 games this season, but there’s even more value on this prop at PrizePicks. For more picks tonight, check out all of my favorite Dolphins vs. Saints prop bets.

PICK: Kamara o21.5 Receiving Yards

Image Credit: Imagn