Monday Night Football Picks: Bears vs. Steelers Odds & Predictions
Bears vs. Steelers Odds
| Bears Odds | +7 |
| Steelers Odds | -7 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 |
| Date | Monday, Nov 8 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers will conclude Week 9 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football at Heinz Field. In this primetime showdown, oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy win for Pittsburgh, pricing the Steelers as a touchdown home favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup, along with other NFL betting tips, to see where there’s value at sportsbooks ahead of kickoff.
Chicago Bears (+7)
The Bears have gone nearly a month without winning a football game, with their last victory coming against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5 on October 10th. Since then, Chicago has suffered double-digit losses to the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and San Francisco 49ers.
Justin Fields appears woefully unprepared to be a starting quarterback in the NFL—totaled only three passing touchdowns against seven interceptions in his rookie season. His 23.1 QBR ranks 33rd in the league amongst qualified signal callers, despite not having played any outstanding pass defenses. If there has been any bright spot in recent weeks, it has been Fields’ ability to create plays with his legs. Last week, Fields set a new career high with 103 rushing yards against the 49ers. Still, the lack of a true passing threat hurts and makes this a relatively easy offense for opponents to defend.
Some pundits still talk about the Chicago defense as if we are living in 2017. Yet, Chicago is allowing an abysmal 4.5 yards-per-carry on the ground and has been similarly ineffectual in stopping teams through the air. Opposing signal callers have thrown for 14 touchdowns against only four interceptions, good for a 101.1 passer rating this fall. Though Roethlisberger is unlikely to tear this defense apart, Chicago is also unlikely to make life particularly difficult for Pittsburgh’s offense this evening.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
The Steelers have not exactly dominated any of their opponents this season. Each of Pittsburgh’s four wins have come by a single score. They also have losses to the Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, and Green Bay Packers.
Ben Roethlisberger continues to be an extreme liability at quarterback, though he has taken care of the ball better in recent weeks, which has made him a competent game manager. Big Ben ranks 25th in the NFL in passing yards, 27th in QBR, and has only eight passing touchdowns through seven games. Najee Harris has been better in recent weeks, with three straight performances of at least 81 rushing yards. However, he has only averaged better than 3.8 yards-per-carry twice this season. Both Roethlisberger and Harris are hurt by one of the worst offensive lines in football, which struggles in both pass and run protection.
Defensively, Pittsburgh has allowed 20 points or less in three consecutive matchups. Yet, they played a very weak Denver offense in Week 5, a Geno Smith-led offense in Week 6, and stymied a Cleveland offense missing a number of key pieces in Week 8. Overall, Pittsburgh has been weak against the pass—allowing 11 touchdowns against only two interceptions for a 99.0 passer rating. The Steelers have also been mediocre against the run, allowing 4.2 yards-per-carry.
Bears vs. Steelers Picks
In the modern NFL, it is incredibly rare to see a total priced below 40. After hitting the open market early in the week at 40.5, bettors attacked this number down as low as 38, but late-money has pushed this number back up to a consensus line of 39.5. These are two low-quality offenses, but these are also two mediocre defenses. Bettors should not expect a shootout in this one, but a 24-17 final is certainly within the realm of possibility, considering that Chicago has allowed 24, 38, and 33 points, respectively, in each of their last three games. A small play on the over could be a profitable endeavor in this one.
PICK: Over 39.5 (-110)
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