Monkey Knife Fight NBA DFS Prop Picks — Wednesday, February 9th
Happy Hump Day, Grinders! We have a six-game slate of NBA action lined up this evening, and we can’t wait to head over to Monkey Knife Fight to win some more money. MKF has become one of the most popular prop sites in sports betting, and we totally understand why. It’s such an easy process, and such a simple way to give more meaning to regular-season contests.
In my last Monkey Knife Fight column over the weekend, I nailed my Triple Doubling prop with Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. Let’s ride that momentum into Wednesday evening’s games, and bring home some more bacon so we can buy more Super Bowl snacks!
NBA DFS Props for Wednesday
More or Less (prize 3.6x buy-in)
- DeMar DeRozan OVER 29.5 Points at Charlotte
- LaMelo Ball UNDER 22.5 Points vs. Chicago
DeRozan continues to impress this season — he’s a fringe MVP candidate for the third-place Bulls, averaging 27.2 points (sixth in the NBA), 5.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. He’s shooting 50.6 percent from the field and 86.3 percent from the line, and no wing has been more clutch in crunch time. He should be able to clear 30 points against the Hornets, who often substitute half-court defense for their full-fledged run-and-gun style of play (Charlotte ranks 24th with a 112.2 defensive rating, but second with a 100.98 pace).
DeRozan has scored 38, 45, and 31 points in his last three games, and he shot 12-of-20 for 28 points across 34 minutes when Chicago last met Charlotte in November. The Hornets have improved since then, so it should be a closer game that warrants more playing time (and shots). With guards Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso out, and rookie Ayo Dosunmo facilitating more on offense, DeRozan can focus more on scoring and less on dishing. The fifth-time All-Star is a great pick for the OVER here.
As for Ball, who was also recently announced an All-Star (replacing the injured Kevin Durant), I’m not as confident in his OVER. While I love the 2021 Rookie of the Year’s game, I think he has been trying to shoot his way out of a slump as of late. He hasn’t topped five field goals or 15 points over the course of Charlotte’s past three games, a stretch that’s seen him shoot an abysmal 34 percent from the field. Ball only scored 18 points on 15 shots when these squads last met, and he’s going to be seeing plenty of defensive attention with Gordon Hayward (aka Mr. Glass) recently sustaining a somewhat-serious ankle injury. Hit the UNDER for the Big Baller.
Rapidfire (3x)
- DeMar DeRozan over LaMelo Ball (Bonus: +7.5 points)
- Mason Plumlee (Bonus: +5.5 Rebounds) over Nikola Vucevic
You already know I like DeRozan to score 30 while I don’t like Ball to reach 23, so I’ll spare you the exhaustive and redundant explanation here. Instead, I’ll talk about how I think Charlotte’s Mason Plumlee will come within five rebounds of Chicago’s Nikola Vucevic. Plumdog Millionaire has been a beast on the glass lately, clearing double-digits in boards in seven of the Hornets’ last 13 games (he has two nine-rebound games in that stretch, too). With Hayward out indefinitely, that leaves almost five rebounds per game to Plums.
Vucevic is a total beast — averaging 11.6 boards per game, and clearing 17 twice in the past week — but he’s also been capitalizing on a bunch of small-ball lineups. Plumlee will not back down from Vuc — the veteran out of Duke knows how to utilize his 6-foot-11, 254-pound frame in the paint — so I like him with a 5.5-board cushion.
Triple-Doubling (1.25x-100x)
- Pascal Siakam at OKC
- Josh Giddey vs. Toronto
- Fred VanVleet at OKC
I would only select the 0.5 goal at the 1.5-times payout here — trying to hit two triple-dubs out of this trio would be far too risky. VanVleet is always a strong double-double candidate with points and assists, having notched six such games since January 7. But January 7 was the last time he collected 10 rebounds in a game, which also happened to be his first career triple-double (he also grabbed 10 boards on Oct. 27, but he only served up six dimes that night).
FVV’s teammate Pascal Siakam gives us a better chance of reaching our triple-dub. Spicy P put up 24/11/8 in his last game against Charlotte, and 25/13/7 two games ago versus Chicago. He’s come just two or three assists or rebounds short of triple-doubles eight times this season, never quite getting over the hump. Maybe the hapless Thunder will present Siakam with his first triple-double of the season.
Or, maybe OKC rookie phenom Josh Giddey will collect the second triple-dub of his young career. Early last month against Dallas, Giddey broke LaMelo Ball record of youngest player in history to record one, going 17/13/14 in 36 minutes. Across 48 games in his debut campaign, he has notched double-digit rebounds 13 times, double-digit assists six times, and double-digit points 32 times. Giddey’s our dark-horse candidate in this prop, but I’d wager very little on us actually seeing even one triple-double this evening. You’re much better off with the More or Less or Rapidfire options on this particular Hump Day.
Image Credit: Imagn