Monkey Knife Fight NFL Strategy: Week 4
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
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Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: NE @ BUF: 2/2 Rapid Fire
Tom Brady (+1.5) vs Josh Allen: Total Fantasy Points: This line right here was a clear mispricing. The Pats come into this game as a full 7 point favorite here and have been lighting teams up in the passing game. Granted, they are coming into this gamed hurt and they are facing the first decent defense they’ve played all year, but Brady and Allen have essentially the same difficulty of matchup and Brady is getting a full 1.5 points. I currently have Brady as a full 3 point favorite and he is actually getting points. This is a clear don’t overthink spot. Take Brady and move on.
Josh Gordon (+1.5) vs Julian Edelman: Total Fantasy Points: This line is another one where they actually put in the wrong guy as the favorite. Edelman will likely play the game this weekend, but he is coming into this game with a rib injury. If you aren’t familiar with rib injuries, they really hurt. Edelman is a big possession WR that relys on high volume of targets for fantasy value and with a rib injury, he will likely see less volume. Gordon on the other side is a much better WR in my opinion and has crushed in every game he’s played without AB. He comes into this matchup coming off an 11 target game and will likely see similar volume on a full point PPR site and he’s getting 1.5 points. Take Gordon by a mile.
Second Prop: LAC @ Mia: 2/2 Rapid Fire
Josh Rosen (+9.5) vs Keenan Allen: Total Fantasy Points: Rosen may be a terrible QB in a terrible offense, but the game script here greatly favors him as the Dolphins will likely be playing from behind all game long. Yes, Keenan is likely to have more fantasy points than Rosen, but 9.5 is a ridiculously high line for any WR going up against a QB. Any QB on any given week is likely to end up in the 15-25 point range, while its unlikely to ever project 25 points for a WR. Currently, I have Rosen projected for 3 less points than Allen in this matchup, so you are getting a full touchdown buffer here.
Austin Ekeler (+.5) vs Philip Rivers: Total Fantasy Points: In almost every scenario I’m going to take the QB over the RB when it comes to straight up fantasy points, but this isn’t a normal scenario. The game script for this game greatly favors Ekeler and he’s getting a free half point. The Chargers will likely be ahead for the entirety of this game here and Ekeler will likely be the bellcow this week as Gordon will be coming back next week. MKF is a full point PPR site which favors Ekeler who is a great pass catching back. Take Ekeler and move on.
Third Prop: Dal @ NO: 2/2 Rapid Fire
Ezekiel Elliott (+.5) vs Alvin Kamara: Total Fantasy Points: Let me start out by saying that I have Zeke projected for way more fantasy points right off the bat here, so I don’t think this line is particularly close. Currently I have Zeke projected for 3 more fantasy points than Kamara and Elliot is getting points in this matchup here. Zeke is the bellcow now in a game that is likely to be close. Don’t buy into Kamara’s game too much last week, having Teddy in the offense instead of Brees is actually a downgrade. Take Zeke.
Dak Prescott vs Amari Cooper (+2.5): Total Fantasy Points: This one was a bit of a tough one, but I think that Dak ends up beating Cooper about 65% of the time here. WR is a much more volatile position than QB, and I think the only way that Cooper ends up beating Dak is if he ends up with a TD (and even if he does that doesn’t guarantee he wins). Dak in this spot should end up between 20-25 about 80% of the time here and I currently have Cooper projected for 17.
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.