MSI Day 1 - DraftKings: Slate 2
Welcome to our analysis of the second slate for MSI: Day 1. Below you will find a game-by-game breakdown and recommended picks.
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Counter Logic Gaming (+163) vs Flash Wolves (-225)
Both teams come into this one with similar macro game strategies. They both like to trade early objectives and skirmish rather than face off in 5v5 teamfights. The big question is how will Flash Wolves adapt to the Western style of lane swaps and it could set them behind. Either way I still think FW will find ways to grab advantages with the pressure players like Maple can apply. For that reason, I really like Maple on this slate and the price is certainly right on him being right in the middle of the pack as far as salary. He will be one of my top targets along with NL who is the other primary carry on this team. Karsa will also be worth consideration and if he gets one of his signature carry champions, he could be in for a huge fantasy day. While Darshan may look like the one CLG player worth grabbing, I’m going to fade on that and look at either Stixxay or Aphromoo as a contrarian pick for CLG. At this point it would be a pretty big surprise if CLG can pull off the upset and until we see how they adapt at the international level, I can really only see them beating the international wildcard team at this tournament.
Players to Target
-Maple (DK $7,300) – My top choice in the mid lane for this slate. His Rotogrinders projections have him just behind Faker which is a pretty good spot to be.
-Karsa (DK $6,300) – When you look at this slate, Karsa is in pretty much the perfect spot. I don’t want to pay up too much for mlxg on RNG and the Blank versus Trick matchup is pretty close. Karsa has so much upside potential without having to pay up too much to grab him. Maple and Karsa is a great stack for FW and I will be relying heavily on that in cash lineups.
-Stixxay (DK $6,800) – I put similar value in both NL and Stixxay so in cash lineups I’m going to grab the cheaper guy. Both teams like to farm up their ADC’s and devote a significant amount of gold their way. We’ve seen Stixxay grow as a player and really start to become a monster in teamfights even if he isn’t the best at the early stages of the game. NL can be punished with some of his poor mechanical play and CLG may just be the team to figure out how to do so optimally as they are a very smart team.
G2 E-Sports (+333) vs SK Telecom T1 (-500)
What should be the premier matchup of the first day has a lot of hype but I’m not convinced G2 will be able to back that up. SKT is the best team in the world and they are playing like it while G2 has really only shown they have dominance in domestic EU LCS play. The hype will certainly grow if G2 dismantles Flash Wolves in the first match but I think they will be outmatched across the board against Korea’s finest. It all starts with the bottom lane with Bang and Wolf who will likely punish the over-aggression we see time and time again from Emperor. Bang will be my number one target for ADC on this slate and a pairing with Wolf is also worth consideration. For G2, it’s the same old story when it comes to Trick and Perkz being relied upon to carry and put up fantasy numbers. If you want a benchmark for what to expect from Perkz, look at Febiven’s games against SKT at IEM. Febiven averaged about 3 kills and 3 assists against SKT in a 3 game set at IEM so those numbers, even if you bump them up a bit will have me shying away from Perkz in cash games although he may be worth a flyer in tournament lineups. If you want someone to outright avoid on G2 it has to be Kikis. Duke is known for his lane dominance more than anything and I can very easily see Kikis being completely starved out and suffer heavily from the oppression of Duke and Blank.
Players to Target
-Bang (DK $7,700) – His RG projections in a win is over 33 fantasy points and I can easily see him in that ballpark if not a notch higher. Emperor had the most deaths in the EU LCS regular season among ADC’s so it should be easy for Bang to get an early lead and snowball that into the mid game.
-Wolf (DK $5,600) – This goes hand in hand with Bang. I want these two guys if I can get them even if it means I have to forego grabbing Faker in my lineup for cash games. He’s coming off a playoff run where he had 108 assists in only 11 games and he is the safest bet of all the supports on this slate, to reach the 10+ assist bonus.
-Trick (DK $5,500) – Is this a gut pick? Maybe. But the fact of the matter is G2 will need a big game from Trick to pull off the upset. I’d rather take a guy with a high ceiling either in the flex spot or jungle position especially at this salary. G2 has the ability to play from behind and even in the last game G2 lost, Trick still had 4 kills and 5 assists which would be decent value at this spot.
Super Massive (+700) vs Royal Never Give Up (-1600)
Some people believe this to be Super Massive’s best shot at an upset the entire tournament but I just don’t see it happening. RNG is playing on their home turf with world class support Mata leading the charge and as much as I love the name “Dumbledoge” who is the support for SM, I think he will meet the same fate as his predecessor Dumbledore. Spoiler alert: Not a good result. RNG may not have the map pressure they showed earlier in the season but they have very strong laners and jungle pressure from mlxg will likely be overwhelming in the early game. The projections on RNG are among the highest according to our RG data and it likely stems from this matchup. Even if you only pay up for one RNG player in cash games, they should hit their value.
Players to Target
-Looper (DK $7,200) – It isn’t like me to pay up for a top laner but on this slate I really prefer Duke and Looper above the rest. Looper showed he is still willing to play carry champions like Quinn and his ability to apply map pressure through teleports allows him to rack up assists. I’m fairly comfortable with him being my only RNG play in cash games.