MSI Day 5 - AlphaDraft/DraftKings: Slate 1
We enter the final day of the group stage and there is a lot on the line for most teams. Be sure to check out the follow-up article for the second DraftKings slate. Also be sure to get your lineups set early as the games will be starting a few hours sooner than normal.
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Check out the Slate 2 breakdown here!
Royal Never Give Up (-833) vs Super Massive (+546)
Royal had continued to tear through opponents at this tournament all the way until about 35 minutes into their last game against Counter Logic Gaming. They are still en route to finishing as the top team and that reality check against CLG may be the worst thing for Super Massive. Expect them to capitalize on their lead far better in this matchup than the last and for that reason I won’t be investing too much into this high priced team when they may finish before the kill totals get too incredibly high. Wuxx, mlxg, or xiaohu are who I would target, in that specific order. I think SM can put together a decent early game as they have shown before but they will be outmatched in the mid game and the SM players have pretty limited value so I’ll only be considering their top players in the flex spot.
Players to Target
-wuxx (DK $8,600) – I’m comfortable paying up for one of the stud carry players on RNG and if I have to choose I’m going with wuxx. Alongside one of the best supports in the world he has managed 35 kills through the first cycle of the double round robin. His 36 point performance against SM in their first bout was his highest point total of MSI as well.
-Naru (DK $5,500) – It’s always a dangerous game to start someone in opposition against xiaohu but you could argue that Naru has been one of the top 4 mid laners with less games that were absolute “duds” than players like Huhi and Perkz. This is almost strictly a flex play and while his floor is low with a limited ceiling, playing against a team like RNG may actually benefit Naru.
Flash Wolves (-127) vs Counter Logic Gaming (+105)
This is a crucial matchup for both teams as they have an off chance of challenging for the top spot in the groups stage and it could be a preview of the best of five series between the second and third place teams in the next round. I really like what CLG has brought to this tournament and it isn’t so much about strong, efficient play, but they have put together some really scrappy games and they know how to scale into late game teamfight’s. This also bodes well for daily fantasy as they are 2nd in combined kills+assists per minute. In laymans terms, lots of kills and lots of deaths for both CLG and their opponents. Stixxay has played the hero in many of their victories and I like him again in this matchup and pairing him with Aphromoo may be advisable as well. The solo lanes are ruled by the Flash Wolves with Maple living up to all the hype he had coming back to the international stage and MMD being one of the most surprisingly consistent top laners. This one is really too close to call so I’ll avoid the team slot for both teams but other than that I like stacking a little bit of both teams with a slight favor to CLG because they generate more points in losses than FW so even if things go south, they can scrape out some fantasy value.
Players to Target
-Stixxay (DK $6,800) – Stixxay continues to baffle me with his performance. He put together one of the worst games we’ve seen from an ADC against Super Massive but he led an incredible comeback against RNG yesterday. Despite his flaws, he has been a fantasy monster at times and he’s a great option when he falls in the lower half of the salary pool at his position. Stixxay is the only MSI ADC to have at least 3 games with over 40 fantasy points.
-Xmithie (DK $5,600) – While Karsa and mlxg have been grabbing the headlines, Xmithie is quietly performing very well in this tournament averaging close to 7 assists per game while having a higher damager per minute than both of the afore mentioned junglers. The price is right and CLG has shown they can extend these games leading to a higher volume of kills and assists.
-Maple (DK $7,400) – You know a mid laner is having a massive impact when he has an 82% kill participation like Maple. He’s in the top half at his position in almost every relevant statistic and his ability to pressure one of the weaker laners like Huhi bodes well for him in this slate.
-MMD (DK $6,600) – Though once perceived as the weakest link on the team, MMD has been impressing at MSI and he sits near the top in important statistical categories like kills, assists, damage percentage, and kill participation. I like Darshan in this matchup as well but I favor MMD slightly and I’m a little worried about stacking too heavily on CLG as they have been boom or bust in their play.
SK Telecom T1 (-507) vs G2 E-Sports (+371)
Just join me in a deep “sigh” when analyzing this matchup please. This matchup is essentially deciding who has been the bigger disappoint of the tournament and I think G2 will at least win that award in this scenario. Originally, many people had these two teams pegged as the top two coming into MSI and now we look at G2 struggling to manage even 5th place with SKT clinging onto that last spot into the knockout round. The struggles of SK Telecom have been less egregious than that of G2 but considering they were regarded as the best team in the world, they have arguably been the worst team at MSI, relatively speaking. What bothers me even more about this game, is the fantasy value. SKT has scared me off enough to make me balk at paying up a high salary for players that aren’t generating high fantasy totals and G2 has a legit shot at putting up a goose egg at any position, in any game. For that reason, I’ll be staying away from this one and Wolf may be as far as I go when it comes to SKT. If I had to grab a G2 player it would be Trick who has shown flashes of his MVP form while Blank has been far from the player we saw storm onto the scene at IEM.
Players to Target
-SKT Team (DK $6,200) – Part of the reason why I have this listed first is because I just hate this slate for both teams. There isn’t a ton of value on either the G2 side or on the SKT side. I do feel comfortable that SKT can win this but their MSI hiccups thus far are not encouraging signs. With the FW/CLG game looking like a toss-up, this is the cheapest you can get a team you can feel very confident will pull out the win.
-Wolf (DK $6,400) – Here’s what I’m thinking. I want to reap the rewards of a potential stomp by an immensely talented SKT team. However, I don’t want to commit too much to a team that is underperforming this massively and has shown weakness even in their victories. Enter Wolf. He may not be a flashy star support like the others at his position but he’s a very solid player and a repeat of his 29 point performance against G2 the first time around is certainly not out of the question.
AlphaDraft Top 3 Plays
-Bang (AD $7,700) – AlphaDraft seems to have dropped SKT down in price quite a bit due to their matchup against RNG but I’m buying on them having somewhat of a bounce-back at least to some degree. Bang, despite his lack of total kills, leads all ADC’s in damage per minute and total assists so if anyone is primed for a strong final day it has to be Bang and at a moderate salary.
-Maple (AD $7,700) – I’ve already mentioned how much I love how Maple has played at this tournament and with a couple of winnable matchups and favorable lane matchups he is a must-have on AlphaDraft on this slate. I don’t see either Naru or Huhi stopping Maple from putting up very solid fantasy numbers. He has one of the highest ceiling and floor combos of any player on this slate.
-Mata (AD $7,400) – The discrepancy between the top and bottom supports is far less than on DraftKings which makes me feel more comfortable paying for one of the top tier guys and Mata fits that mold. He has generated 84 assists over the first 8 games.