Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Betting Picks
College Football is back! The new season gets underway this weekend, beginning with a Week Zero matchup between the Navy Midshipmen and Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. EST. Ahead of kickoff, Notre Dame (-20.5) is heavily favored, with the over/under set at 49 points.
In our Navy vs. Notre Dame betting preview, we break down the rosters for both teams, make a prediction for the game, and deliver two free picks.
Navy vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Navy Odds | +20.5 |
| Notre Dame Odds | -20.5 |
| Over/Under | 49 |
| Date | Sat, Aug. 26 |
| Time | 2:30 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and some college football betting tips as we try to find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Navy Midshipmen
New-look passing attack
In 2022, the Navy passing attack was nonexistent. Tai Lavatai, the team’s leading passer, completed only 42-of-91 pass attempts for the season, throwing for a meager 787 passing yards and five touchdowns. This year, the offense figures to throw the ball significantly more, but presumptive starting quarterback Tedros Gleaton is an unknown after not taking a single snap last season. Gleaton is capable of making plays with his arm and his legs, but he faces an extremely tough test against a strong Notre Dame secondary unit.
Underrated defense
According to Phil Steele, Navy allowed only 89.0 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry in 2022. Overall, the defense held their opponents to 73.0 yards per game below their season average. However, the departure of leading tackler John Marshall, and their fourth-leading tackler Nicholas Straw certainly hurts this group’s run defense going into the new campaign. This unit also projects weak defending tight ends and running backs in the passing game, with a lack of strong coverage talent at the linebacker position. If there is one area where this defense could surprise, it is in the secondary unit. This group returns completely intact and should be better prepared on gameday thanks to a new offense that will feature more legitimate passing during practice.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Hartman leads the Fighting Irish offensive attack
Following an impressive 27-18 run as a starter at Wake Forest, Sam Hartman transferred to Notre Dame for his senior season and will be the team’s starting signal caller to begin the year. In 2022, Hartman finished 16th out of 308 eligible quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ pass grade, throwing for 3,701 yards and 38 touchdowns. Still, this will be his first new school since 2017, meaning that there are likely to be at least some growing pains. Part of those growing pains could be associated with having a new offensive coordinator, or due to a lack of experienced depth at wide receiver. Notre Dame has zero returning receivers who had 400 or more receiving yards in 2022.
Defense ready for the fight
On paper, there is little doubt that Notre Dame has a top-10 defense in college football this fall. They are returning eight starters and are strong at all three levels of the defense. This unit lost Isaiah Foskey to the NFL draft this past summer, but they added talent via the transfer portal and returned their top three tacklers from 2022. Expect the Fighting Irish to make life extremely difficult on an inexperienced Navy offense this Saturday.
Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Betting Picks
Last year, Notre Dame held their opponents to 74 yards per game below their season average, per Phil Steele, despite having two new starters at the linebacker position. Heading into 2023, the Fighting Irish return their top three tacklers and only lose one starter in their secondary unit. On Saturday, they will get to face a quarterback who has never thrown a pass at the collegiate level. The entire offense will be playing their first game in Grant Chestnut’s new system. Simply, points are going to be difficult to come by for Navy in this matchup.
Nevertheless, Notre Dame has a new quarterback, a new offensive coordinator, and a notable lack of experience at wide receiver to start the new year. Though the Fighting Irish have legitimate playoff aspirations, it is unlikely that their offense is firing on all cylinders out of the gate in Week 0, especially if Navy’s secondary unit is able to take a step forward this season.
It would not be surprising to see this matchup turn into a low-scoring affair.
FREE PICK: Under 49 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Free PrizePicks Prediction
Audric Estime More Than 78.5 Rushing Yards, PrizePicks
In 2022, Navy stifled opposing rushing attacks, allowing only 3.0 yards per carry. However, they lost their leading tackler, John Marshall, and their fourth-leading tackler Nicholas Straw. If Notre Dame’s new-look passing attack struggles at all on Saturday, it is likely that Audric Estime will see plenty of touches. Estime averaged 6.1 yards per carry against Navy on only nine rush attempts last fall. In an expanded role, he should be extremely competitive at this market number.
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More Week Zero College Football odds
| Players | Opponent | Spread | Total | Implied Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Navy | Notre Dame  | 20.5 | 49 | 14.25 |
| Notre Dame | Navy | -20.5 | 49 | 34.75 |
Ohio | San Diego State  | 2.5 | 49 | 23.25 |
| San Diego State | Ohio | -2.5 | 49 | 25.75 |
Hawai’i | Vanderbilt  | 17.5 | 55.5 | 19 |
| Vanderbilt | Hawai’i | -17.5 | 55.5 | 36.5 |
San Jose State | USC  | 30.5 | 66.5 | 18 |
| USC | San Jose State | -30.5 | 66.5 | 48.5 |
Florida International | Louisiana Tech  | 11 | 58.5 | 23.75 |
| Louisiana Tech | Florida International | -11 | 58.5 | 34.75 |
Massachusetts | New Mexico State  | 6.5 | 44.5 | 19 |
| New Mexico State | Massachusetts | -6.5 | 44.5 | 25.5 |
UTEP  | Jacksonville State  | -1 | 54 | 27.5 |
| Jacksonville State | UTEP | 1 | 54 | 26.5 |