NBA All-Star 2022: Three-Point Contest & Skills Challenge Betting Preview
Hello Grinders. The 2022 NBA All-Star Weekend begins this Friday, and online sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings have already posted NBA betting odds, allowing you to bet on various festivities and the All-Star Game itself.
We will take a look at the odds for the Three-Point Challenge and Skills Challenge, with the hopes of helping you cash in some winning tickets.
NBA Three-Point Challenge
Let’s first take a look at the NBA Three-Point Challenge, which will take place on Saturday, February 19, 2022. You can tune in to TNT at 8 p.m. ET to watch the contest live.
The eight-person field includes CJ McCollum, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, Desmond Bane, Karl-Anthony Towns, Fred VanVleet, Luke Kennard and Patty Mills. This is a unique list in that two-time defending champion Stephen Curry will not be participating this year to defend his title, and none of these eight participants have ever won the title.
Patty Mills (+440)
Mills has the third highest 3PT% among the contestants (41.4%) and second highest 3PM total (181), so there’s good reason for him to be one of the favorites in this competition. At the same time, it’s worth noting he’s a career 39.1% three-point shooter, so he’s been better than his career average this season. What’s been impressive is that this season, he’s reached career-highs in three-point attempts per game (7.7) and three-pointers made per game (3.2), which is rare for a 13-year veteran. His 181 three-pointers made is already a career high for Mills in a single season, and the Nets still have a quarter of the season left to play. It feels uncharacteristic of Mills to have such freedom in an offense to chuck threes, but now that he’s out of San Antonio and in Brooklyn, we’re finally able to see a different side of Mills.
Fred VanVleet (+440)
Like Mills, Fred VanVleet is having a career year from beyond the arc. He leads all eight contestants in 3PM (201) and has eclipsed the 40% 3PM% threshold this season. Not only has VanVleet been accurate this season, but he’s seen a spike in volume. VanVleet has attempted 10 three-pointers per game this season, second in the league only behind Stephen Curry at 12.4 per game. That sheer volume alone is partially why VanVleet leads all contestants with 201 3PM. That’s not to take anything away from him, but it’s worth noting his 40.1 3PM% this season is above his 38.8% career mark. In fact entering this 2021-22 season, VanVleet had only reached the 40% 3PM% mark once in his first five seasons. Again, I’m not trying to take anything away from VanVleet, but I can see plenty of reasons to poke holes in VanVleet’s odds given his career numbers and taking some shots on the underdogs instead.
Trae Young (+490)
I was a bit surprised when I started digging into Young’s stats. While he’s currently sitting at +490 odds, his season (and career) numbers make me think these odds are a bit generous. Young can certainly catch fire with the best of them, but his 38.3% 3PM% is the second lowest percentage among all contestants. In fact this isn’t really a fluke, as Young shot 34.3% from beyond the arc last season and is a career 35.0% shooting from three-point range over his four year career. Perhaps Young will be popular based on his name recognition and highlight reels, but I personally feel there are better options to choose from based on their odds.
Desmond Bane (+550)
Bane is only in his second year in the league but he has the second highest 3PM% among all contestants at 41.9%. His 162 3PM are also third most among all contestants, and is more than the total Trae Young has for context. Despite shooting 41.9% from beyond the arc, this is actually a “down year” for Bane in the category as he shot 43.2% from three-point range last year in his rookie season. The TCU product was also very efficient from three-point range in college, shooting 43.3% over his four year collegiate career, including a 46.1% clip in his sophomore season. Bane may fly under-the-radar a bit in this contest as he’s not a household name, but he’s probably my favorite contestant of the eight relative to his odds.
Zach LaVine (+600)
This is the third consecutive appearance Zach LaVine has made in this event, and LaVine is hoping for better results this time around. In both 2020 and 2021, LaVine was eliminated in the first round. LaVine has shot a respectable 39.9% this season from beyond the arc but that’s the third lowest rate among all contestants. More worrisome for me is the fact LaVine has been missing time in the regular season lately with a knee injury. In fact LaVine has been reported visiting a knee specialist for his injury but plans to still participate in this event. While he can certainly still win this event, his injury situation is pretty worrisome to me and I’d rather take shots on other contestants.
Luke Kennard (+600)
This will be a special event for Kennard as he’s from Ohio, so we’re getting a #hometown narrative here. But in reality, Kennard has earned a right to participate. He’s shooting 43.4% from three-point range this season, which leads all contestants. It’s worth noting that Kennard has been a part-time player this season, averaging just 6.1 three-point attempts per game. This is only 51st most in the league, so the volume hasn’t be there. Still, Kennard is a career 41.8% shooter from three-point range, and he’s never had a season below 39.4%. So while his absolute numbers haven’t been amazing this season, his rates are up there with the best of them, making him a fine option for this contest. I’d much rather take shots on Kennard over LaVine if given the same odds.
CJ McCollum (+950)
McCollum’s career numbers have been as steady as they come. He’s shooting 37.9% from three-point range this season, and is a career 39.6% shooter. McCollum is averaging eight three-point attempts per game this season, good for 16th most in the league. It’s interesting that between the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, McCollum’s rates were at 37.5% and 37.9%, respectively. Then last season, it shot up to 40.2%. It’s hard to know what to make of McCollum, because he’s had some reason good seasons shooting the ball and then some solid seasons shooting the ball. I’ll admit, having him at +950 odds seems like a number I’d be willing to take some chances on. Back in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, he was over 41% for those two years, so there’s definitely a player here who has proven to be an elite sharp-shooter.
Karl-Anthony Towns (+1200)
I was surprised to see KAT in this contest, and perhaps so are the books as they have him with the lowest odds among all contestants. At the same time, KAT is shooting 40.9% from three-point range this season and is surprisingly a 39.6% shooter from beyond the arc over his seven year season. It’s unfair to point to the fact he’s made just 110 threes this season, which is by far the lowest among all contestants. The nature of his position just doesn’t call for him to shoot many threes, and so I’m not going to hold that against him. It just feels odd to see a traditional center in this contest, but if you closed your eyes and heard his numbers, you might not believe this is someone with +1200 odds to win. Between 2017 and 2020, he shot 42.1%, 40.0% and 41.2% from beyond the arc in that three-season span. And it wasn’t like he was just taking a few three-pointers per game, he averaged 3.5, 4.6 and 7.9 attempts per game in those three seasons, respectively. If you wanted to YOLO, I don’t think it’s the craziest idea to YOLO with KAT.
NBA Skills Challenge
Let’s now look at the 2022 NBA Skills Challenge. The league changed up the format this season, where the contestants were split up into three teams. There is one team made up of the Antetokounmpo brothers: Giannis, Thanasis and Alex, who plays for the Raptors’ G League squad. There’s another hometown team made up of Cleveland Cavaliers’ Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. The final team consists of rookies Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham and Josh Giddey:
Each of the three teams will compete in the first three rounds of the Taco Bell Skills Challenge. The two teams with the most “Challenge Points” after the first three rounds will advance to the Final Round. Challenge Points are earned by winning each of the first three rounds. Here’s a quick summary of the four rounds:
Round 1: Team Shooting (three teams) – All players from each team will participate individually with their two teammates rebounding. Each player has 30 seconds to shoot from five different spots on the court, ranging from 10 feet to 30 feet. Players cannot repeat the same shot consecutively. Shots made from each shooting location will have different values (one point, two points, three points, four points or five points). Individual player scores will be added together to determine the team score. The team with the highest team score will win Round 1 and earn 100 Challenge Points.
Round 2: Team Passing (three teams) – All players on a team will participate together. Each team will have 30 seconds to complete passes into three oversized moving targets, which vary in size and distance from the players. Each team must make at least one pass attempt at each target, and individual players cannot make consecutive passes at the same target. Completed passes into each target will have different values (two points, four points or six points). The team with the most total points will win Team Passing and earn 100 Challenge Points.
Round 3: Team Relay (three teams) – All players from each team will participate in a timed relay. Each player must complete the course, which has five skills in the following order: 1.) throw an outlet pass into a moving target from the baseline; 2.) dribble down the court through three moving pylons; 3.) make a short shot in the lane; 4.) make a three-pointer from the corner against an automated defender; and 5.) dribble to the opposite goal and make a basket (such as a dunk, layup or jump shot). The team with the fastest time will win Round 3 and earn 200 Challenge Points.
Final Round: Half-court Shot (two teams) – The two teams that advance to the Final Round will compete one at a time and all players on each team will participate in trying to make a half-court shot. Team 1 will set the time to beat with a made shot or expiration of the clock (maximum of 1 minute and 30 seconds). The team that makes a half-court shot in the fastest time will win the Taco Bell Skills Challenge. In the case of a tie, the two teams will repeat the Final Round.
Here are the current odds:
Team Rookies is by far the favorite here, and it’s not even close. It makes sense too, given the first two rounds are shooting and passing drills. Here are some stats for each player this year that are related to shooting and passing:
Just based on these stats, it makes sense the Antetokounmpo brothers have the lowest odds of the three. At the same time, the data on Thanasis and Alex has been so little given they’ve barely played this season. If you want to take some shots on them at +390, I don’t think it’s crazy at all. The contest definitely suits the Rookies, as Barnes, Cunningham and Giddey just profile as the best trio in terms of shooting/passing/relay given they are all guards or forwards. What’s noteworthy though is that Cunningham and Giddey haven’t shown to be great shooters in the league despite both of them being guards. Both are shooting sub-42% from the field this season, and that could come back to haunt them in the first round. They should have the advantage in round three, however, in the team relay.
I thought the aspect of having Team Cleveland in this contest was interesting because perhaps having home court advantage and familiarity with your teammates will come in handy. But if you read the descriptions of each round, the drills are all individual and then the individual scores are then aggregated. I’m not sure having home court or familiarity with your teammates is really that much of a factor. The only edge I could see Team Cleveland having is the perception of them not being as good as Team Rookies in round one for shooting or round two for passing because Allen and Mobley are big men. Given what I said above about Cunningham and Giddey not being great shooters either, I do think there’s plenty of merit to taking the odds for Team Cleveland and hoping they surprise some people.
Image Credit: Imagn