NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over Til It's Under (Friday, Jan. 5)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Chicago Bulls Under 220.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
These are two of the worst offenses in the league, but more importantly, two of the slowest teams. Chicago is dead last in pace on the season. Their 96.71 mark is nearly a full possession lower than the next-closest team (Denver). Charlotte is 17th, but they’re all the way down to 26th over the past 15 games (all without LaMelo Ball).
Both of these teams are bottom four in points per game. Chicago has had a nice resurgence since Zach LaVine went down, but it’s been largely due to their defense. The Bulls are 6th in defensive rating over the past 15 games, but their offense is just 21st, a slight improvement on their season-long rank (26th). Only the Spurs and Grizzlies have worse offensive ratings than the Hornets over the past 15 games.
This should be a sluggish matchup with minimal offensive success. LaVine’s potential return shouldn’t move the needle, and he’s likely to have a minutes cap anyways. Would expect this number to continue to trend down throughout the day.
Bradley Beal Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
Phoenix is supposed to be fully healthy for this game, which means one of their big three will take a step back. So far, it’s been Beal. He’s played four games with both Durant and Booker, and his usage rate is a distant third (18.13%). Beal’s assist and rebound rates are also well behind the other two guys.
Beal has only averaged 25.7 minutes over those four games as he worked back from injury, but that’s why we’re looking at rate stats. More minutes will help his overall volume, but he’s still the third option here.
Miami is 6th in points allowed per game. They’re just outside the top 10 in defensive rating on the season, but they’ve improved to 7th over the last 10 games. The Heat are 25th in pace, while the Suns are 28th. Should be a slow game and Beal’s opportunities will be limited with Phoenix getting healthy.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 5-5
- Prop Picks: 6-4
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