NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, Feb. 23)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Miami Heat Under 108.5 (-110 on Fanatics)
This is a good spot for a solid New Orleans defense to take advantage of a struggling offense. The Pelicans are 6th in defensive rating and 8th in points allowed. They rank 6th and 9th in those metrics over the past 15 games, respectively.
The Pelicans match up well with the Heat in terms of defensive strengths and offensive approach. Miami primarily scores from the foul line and the 3-point line, ranking 4th in percentage of points from free throws and 11th in percentage of points from beyond the arc. New Orleans is the best 3-point defense in the league by percentage, holding opponents to 34.6% from long range. They also allow the 9th-fewest free throws per game.
The Heat have slipped to 25th in offensive rating and 29th in scoring over the past 15 games, largely due to rough shooting. Miami is just 45.3% from the field (29th) and 34.4% from deep (25th) in that stretch. They’re 27th in scoring on the season (110.6 points per game), but they’ve been much worse on the road (113.1 points per game home vs. 108.0 points per game road). Only Portland has had a weaker offense away from home.
I just don’t see Miami turning things around tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 11.5 Rebounds (-105 on BetMGM
This is a tough matchup, and the opportunities haven’t been there lately for Giannis. He sees minor increases in usage and assist rate with Khris Middleton off the floor, but his rebound rate actually ticks down slightly (-1%). Giannis has averaged 10.5 rebounds oer game in 11 games without Middleton, compared to 11.5 with him healthy.
Middleton has missed the majority of the last 7 games (played 8 minutes against Phoenix), and Giannis has posted 9.6 rebounds on 14.0 rebound chances. He was at 11.5 rebounds on 17.7 rebound chances before this stretch. Giannis still leads the team in rebounds and rebound chances, but his teammates are closing the gap. Bobby Portis has picked up 4 extra minutes of playing time with Middleton sidelined, grabbing 7.3 rebounds on 10.3 rebound chances. Giannis’ rebound rate falls 2.9% when playing with Portis.
Minnesota is one of the best rebounding teams in the league, ranking 6th in rebound rate and 1st in rebounds allowed per game. The Timberwolves have held power forwards to the 2nd-fewest rebounds per game and centers to the fewest rebounds per game. It’s a challenging spot, and the production has taken a dip recently.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 7-9
- Prop Picks: 10-5
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