NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, March 15)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Toronto Raptors First Quarter Under 26.5 (-114 on BetRivers)
Toronto’s mediocre offense has fallen off a cliff since Scottie Barnes went down. They have a 106.1 offensive rating in 6 games with Barnes sidelined, and the 1st-quarter numbers are even worse.
The Raptors have shuffled through a variety of starting lineups without Barnes, and none of them have been productive to start the game. Toronto has a 103.3 offensive rating and has scored 26.2 PPG in the 1st quarter without Barnes. Now they’re without RJ Barrett and could be missing Gary Trent Jr. as well. Immanuel Quickley and a bunch of role players doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Orlando has been a top-10 1st-quarter defense in terms of PPG, but it’s the pace that is most interesting. The Magic have been grinding games to a halt recently, ranking 29th in pace (94.01) over their past 15 contests. It’s even slower in the 1st quarter (93.20). Only the Knicks come out of the gates more sluggish than the Magic.
The pace will force Toronto to be efficient on offense to exceed this number. It’s hard to expect offensive efficiency, given their recent play.
Kawhi Leonard Under 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 on DraftKings)
There’s a lot working against the Clippers here. It’s a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 nights. New Orleans has played just once this week. Leonard just left a game with back spasms a few days ago. He played well last night, but this is a much tougher matchup.
The Pelicans have the 2nd-best defensive rating in the league over the past 15 games. They’re 6th on the season. The Pelicans are also a top-10 rebounding team.
James Harden is questionable after sitting last night. His absence would potentially get the ball in Leonard’s hands more often, but he actually hasn’t seen much of a bump with Harden off the floor. Paul George is the Clipper who gets the primary boost without Harden.
Tough spot given the circumstances and the matchup, which is one Leonard has already struggled with this season. He’s averaged 18 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3 assists in 3 games against New Orleans this season.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 10-9
- Prop Picks: 11-7
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