NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, March 29)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat First Quarter Under 54.5 (-125 on Fanatics)
Portland is my favorite 1st-quarter fade, but let’s not discount how dreadful Miami has been on offense lately. The Heat are 27th in scoring over the past 15 games. They’re 24th in 1st-quarter scoring and 25th in 1st-quarter offensive rating in that stretch.
The lineup of J. Butler/Rozier/Adebayo/Robinson/Jovic is Miami’s most-used in terms of games played and minutes. It has a brutal 101.5 offensive rating in the 1st quarter. And now they don’t even have Duncan Robinson in there. I wouldn’t expect 35-year-old Patty Mills to be the cure for this group.
Portland is Portland. Still 29th in both 1st-quarter offensive rating and scoring. All of their lineups struggle on offense, and the decent 5-man groups have Anfernee Simons and/or Jerami Grant in them. Both are out tonight. Deandre Ayton is also questionable. If he sits, we could be looking at a disastrous lineup.
Kawhi Leonard Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122 on FanDuel)
Orlando’s defense is on another level right now. They lead the league in defensive rating and have allowed the 2nd-fewest PPG over the past 15 games. The Magic are top 5 in rebounding rate and allow the fewest assists per game this season. They’re also bottom 5 in pace on the season (97.45) and have been playing even slower in March (95.30).
Leonard has been productive this season, but the Clippers are fully healthy. He’s sharing the load with James Harden and Paul George. Leonard is averaging 23.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists when both Harden and George play. That’s right in line with this number. Given the matchup, I would expect him to come up short here.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 11-10
- Prop Picks: 12-8
Not in a legal sports betting state? Use our Betr Picks promo code to make player predictions with a $500 deposit match this week!
Image Credit: Getty Images