NBA Odds & Betting Picks for Today: Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls are 3.5-point home favorites and the point total is 228 at online sports betting sites. Here’s a look at NBA odds and betting picks for today, Thursday, March 11, 2021.
NBA Betting Picks for Today: 76ers at Bulls
We have an interesting matchup here for the 76ers and the Bulls. The 76ers currently lead the Eastern Conference with a regular-season record of 24-12 and rank 7th in offensive pace, 2nd in defensive efficiency, and 14th in offensive efficiency. They have been a considerably better team at home this season than on the road going 13-6 against the spread and 16-3 straight up at home compared to 6-10-1 ATS and 8-9 straight up on the road. When traveling as underdogs, they are 1-4 ATS.
The Bulls on the other hand have played mediocre basketball for most of the season, and now are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff race — however, they still have playoff hopes. They are 9th in the East with a record of 16-18. So far they have fared much better on the road than at home, going 8-10 ATS and 7-11 straight up at home compared to 12-4 ATS and 9-7 straight up on the road.
This game would be an entirely different spread if this game were being played in Philadelphia and if both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons were playing. Unfortunately for the Sixers, that’s no the case.
The Sixers enter the game short-handed without two of their three stars. While I don’t fully understand the 76ers home/road splits, which have been consistent year over year, I’m planning on siding with the Bulls. I know, I know — it’s weird to bet on the Bulls as a 3.5-point favorite against the top team in the Eastern Conference, but hear me out: Without both Embiid and Simmons on the hardwood, this defense takes a major hit. And they’re likely to struggle on the offensive end as well while leaning on Shake Milton and Tobias Harris.
Considering the Chicago Bulls should be getting their big man, Lauri Markkanen back today — even though Markkannen is likely to be limited— the Bulls should probably be a larger betting favorite than they actually are.
Moreover, the 76ers are sub-.500 on the road even with Embiid and Simmons, while the Bulls have been trending in the right direction recently, going 4-2 over their last six games.
NBA Pick: Chicago Bulls -3.5 at BetMGM
Risking 1.1 Units to win 1 Unit
Current Year Record: 1-0 (+1 Unit)
NBA DFS Tips For Today
This game has a lot of DFS angles if you’re dabbling with lineups here, particularly due to the absence of both Embiid and Simmons opening up usage for cheaper players on Philadelphia’s roster.
When both Simmons and Embiid are off the floor this season, Milton gets a 7.1% usage increase, Seth Curry gets a bump of 5.1%, and Harris’ usage increases 6.6%. Harris and Curry are probably going to be chalky plays in NBA DFS lineups with today’s slate, especially over at Fanduel where they are very underpriced While I think Harris floor and ceiling justifies some eating some chalk, Curry will probably be over-owned, and is worth a fade consideration in tournaments. I think the pivot is Shake Milton. Milton gets the most significant increase in usage and has a drastically higher ceiling than Curry at half the ownership. Milton could be in the game for a wide range of minutes — don’t be surprised if he clocks in 25-35 minutes of playing time by the end of this contest. With that said, I honestly believe Milton will outscore Curry, so if I’m getting less ownership and more upside with Milton, then I’m happy to pivot to him.
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NBA Odds Boost of the Day
If you live in a state with regulated sports betting, you’ll be happy to know I’m shopping odds boosts from across the industry and will give out my favorite odds boost every day I write this article, plus a short summary of why I like the specific boost (not all odds boosts are equal!). While I like the Chicago Bulls to cover and to win the game, there’s an enticing odds bost that includes the Sixers, Nets and Bucks.
Currently, if you parlay those three moneyline bets, it comes out to +358, but BetRivers is boosting them to +450, which is a massive adjustment and something all NBA bettors should consider taking advantage of. Even though I will be betting the Bulls today, I will also be using this odds boost, because there’s just too much value not to.
[Parlay Sixers, Nets & Buck +450 at BetRivers!]
Image Credit: Imagn