NBA Betting Picks for Today — Friday, December 17th
Happy Friday, Grinders! We’ve got a fantastic slate of NBA action on tap this evening, with eight games tipping off between 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. eastern. And despite the recent surge of COVID-19 cases and protocols, the quality of games has remained top-notch. More importantly, we’ve been making money on our NBA bets since I started this column back up last week!
NBA Betting Picks for Friday, December 17
Memphis Grizzlies (-189) at Sacramento Kings
Best Book: BetMGM
Don’t look now, but Memphis has won nine of its last 10 games, vaulting up to fourth place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies have somehow not skipped a beat since 2019-20 Rookie of the Year Ja Morant’s injury, playing superb team basketball on both sides of the floor. They believe in themselves, and they possess a great combination of shooting, athleticism, IQ, and the intangibles. Taylor Jenkins deserves a lot of credit for where he has this young team without its star.
Tyus Jones and De’Anthony Melton have held the point admirably, always taking care of the ball and creating for others. Dillon Brooks has provided his effortless inside-out scoring ability, and Kyle Anderson’s veteran IQ has come up huge in the clutch. Steven Adams always grinds down low, and creates second-chance opportunities. But Jaren Jackson Jr. has been the true catalyst of this amazing Memphis run—the fourth-year big is having a career season (averaging 16 ppg/5 rpg/2 bpg, 1 apg, 1 spg, while shooting 42.8% FG/34.3% 3PT/83.5% FT).
Contrast this success with the Kings’ woes, and this game’s an easy pick. Sacramento is now 12-17, and could be without its three best players this evening. Top-scoring guard De’Aaron Fox is out due to COVID protocols. Heart-and-soul center Richaun Holmes remains doubtful with an eye injury, and his backup Alex Len joins Fox in the protocols. Stud second-year point guard Tyrese Haliburton is a game-time decision with back soreness. The wheels have already come off this wagon, sometime between head coach Luke Walton’s termination and Alvin Gentry’s erratic interim coaching strategies. Now, a small leak could turn into a flood of poop water. Go with the hot team against a franchise that’s become hot garbage.
PICK: Grizzlies -189
Charlotte Hornets (+2) at Portland Trail Blazers
Best Book: PointsBet
The Hornets are playing good basketball right now, and they could get star point guard and 2020-21 Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball back from COVID protocols this evening. Meanwhile, the Blazers are eroding more each week, reeling from the recent loss of C.J. McCollum to a punctured lung—and perhaps wishing they went a different direction than Chauncey Billups at head coach.
Charlotte hasn’t been overly impressive record-wise since Ball’s absence, but it has been competing at a high level in a somewhat difficult stretch of schedule. James Borrego’s squad just beat the Spurs 131-115, its second win in three games. And the Hornets gave Philly a serious run for their money last week, ultimately losing 127-124 in overtime on Monday and 110-106 on Wednesday. You don’t see effort level in win-loss records—you see it game in and game out on the floor.
This Hornets squad has defeated the likes of Golden State, Brooklyn, Memphis, and Cleveland this season. At full strength, it’s a true playoff contender and a real matchup problem for older, slower teams like Portland. Ball has been the perfect maestro for this superb passing team, veterans Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward have been fantastic, and Miles Bridges might be the Most Improved Player so far in this young season. On any given night, four different offensive players can go on scoring runs and drop 20-plus.
None of this is great news for a Blazers squad that’s 11-18, and gives up 111.2 points per game. Portland ranks 26th in the NBA in scoring defense, and 28th in points allowed per possession. We’re reaching crisis mode at the Moda Center tonight. Damian Lillard doesn’t have enough offensive help, and Billups’ offensive play-calling seems suspect at best (and word is he’s kind of a dick to the team on the regular, creating serious morale issues in the locker room). Jusuf Nurkic still can’t get back to the level he was at pre-COVID, and Robert Covington and Cody Zeller seem incompetent on offense. I’m all over the Hive here, and think the Blazers get stung to continue their awful early-season rut.
PICK: Hornets +2
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics: OVER 214
Best Book: Caesars
I guess I can understand why sportsbooks have this total listed at just 214—Golden State’s defense has been incredible this season, and Boston has been wildly inconsistent this campaign. But these are high-scoring teams, and they’re sure to get up against each other. The Warriors rank third in the NBA in points per game (111.8), and average 106.3 per road game. The Celtics rank 13th with 108.3 points per game, and just about the same average at home (108.0). So, were oddsmakers just adding Golden State’s average points in away games plus Boston’s average points at home? Did I just unearth the secret to handicapping over/under totals!?
All kidding aside, the point is that many variables exist in this game beyond each squad’s home/road averages coming in. For the most part, Boston has fared pretty well scoring-wise against playoff-caliber teams over the past few weeks. Jayson Tatum and the C’s have put up 109 in Toronto, 130 in Utah, 145 in Portland, 111 against the Clippers in LA, and 117 back at home against Milwaukee on Monday. The overall scope of their road trip made things look ugly for Ime Udoka’s squad, which now sits at 14-14. But this is a much better squad than that record suggests—and Tatum now has his partner in crime, Jaylen Brown, back from injury.
As for the Warriors, their average production has dipped after playing a barrage of borderline-lottery teams as of late. You don’t need to score 130 points when you’re playing a team that can barely crack the mid-90s! But if you look at Golden State’s output against winning teams, the truth of this high-powered offense reveals itself. In their last 12 games against teams at or above .500, the Dubs have averaged 114.1 points.
Steph Curry has the weight of the all-time three-point record lifted off his shoulders—he has officially solidified himself as the GOAT of shooting. That’s probably a great relief for Curry, who was playing MVP-caliber basketball before he started inching closer to Ray Allen’s record. Now the two-time MVP and three-time champion can focus on what’s truly important: winning. He’ll be raring to go against a Celtics team that’s capable of exploding at a moment’s notice. Curry had 85 points over the course of two games against Boston last season, and Tatum had 71 total across those two games. The average total points in those two games: 225.5. This game doesn’t stand a chance of going under 214. Grab that easy green, and let’s make this money!
PICK: OVER 214
Image Credit: Imagn