NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, November 13: Warriors at Lakers
The Golden State Warriors opened as 12-point road underdogs against the Los Angeles Lakers and the line has already moved to +9.5 at sports betting sites. The total opened at 222 and fell to 220 by noon on Wednesday. Here’s a look at NBA odds and basketball betting tips for today, Wednesday, November 13, 2019.
NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, November 13: Warriors at Lakers
Golden State Warriors -9.5
Los Angeles Lakers +9.5
Over/Under 220
90% of bets are on the Lakers and 61% of bets are on the Under as of 12 p.m. ET Wednesday, per VegasInsider.com.
Looking at an overview of this game, the first thing we need to address is that the Lakers will likely be without Anthony Davis. Of course, you never really know with Davis, but he is listed as doubtful, so it sounds like the Lakers will be cautious with Davis Wednesday night. Davis is obviously a big part of this Lakers team as he leads the Lakers in usage with a 29.7% rate and is one of the best defensive players in the league. His absence will likely have a big effect on this game and has already moved the spread several points.
Looking at the Warriors, they are clearly won’t be wining many games this season. They already sit at the bottom of the Western Conference with a 2-9 record. The Warriors are the worst team in the league defensively, and by a decent margin. Offensively, they’re just average in terms of production and pace. Right now, their offense runs through D’Angelo Russell and their scoring is almost entirely reliant on his night. Over the last four games, he is averaging over 25 shot attempts per game. We can expect roughly that same number tonight.
Looking at the Lakers, even without Davis in their lineup, they are a solid team. Unsurprisingly, they currently sit atop the league in defensive rating. Even with Davis out, the Lakers should remain an elite defensively, matching up very well against the Warriors. While LeBron is not the same player on the defensive end as he was earlier in his career, this is likely more due to the amount of energy he has to exert on offense. Luckily, his defense will likely not be needed in this matchup. With the entire GS offense running through Russell, the Warriors will struggle on offense in this game as the Lakers have elite defensive guards in Danny Green and Avery Bradley which will likely be able to hone in on the guard while forcing the ball to other players on Golden State.
My NBA Betting Pick: Under 220
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The Warriors have been one of the best teams in the league at covering the over this season, exceeding the total in eight of 11 games. I don’t expect that trend to hold on Wednesday night. As I stated earlier, the Warriors are a one-man show on offense and will struggle mightily against a great Lakers defensive unit. Plus, neither of these teams run at an above-average pace. Additionally, the Lakers will likely struggle a little more on the offensive end without Davis in the lineup. While the Lakers are likely a worse defensive team without Davis, I think this will have a negligible effect as Draymond Green isn’t going to do a whole lot. Overall, I think this game turns into a low scoring blowout with the Lakers running away with it.
NBA Betting Picks for Today — Player Props
DAngelo Russell: Over 27.5 Points – While I’ve already stated that this matchup is not a good one for Russell, the volume is absolutely going to be here. Though it might not be in the most efficient manner, Russell will take enough shots to score around 30 points. He has reached 30 points in each of his last four games and he is averaging 26+ shot attempts during that same span.
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fights props for the Warriors at Lakers:
LeBron James: Over 54.5 Fantasy Points
DAngelo Russell: Over 38.5 Fantasy Points
Draymond Green: Under 30.5 Fantasy Points
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images