NBA Daily Grind Down: Friday 3/22

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-03-22 17:43:30

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NBA schedule each night. This article will break down the defense vs. position rankings for every single game and give you analysis on where you can exploit these matchups.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy basketball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, minutes, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections.

Another glorious Friday is upon us. We have a full slate of games, plenty of big GPP’s going on, and plenty of qualifiers to get in to the big tournaments. It is also the 3rd round of the Bracket Battle over on DraftDay so make sure to cheer Cam on tonight as he tries to advance to the elite 8. Goran Dragic is the featured player in today’s Grind Down with a great matchup against Rubio.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Milwaukee @ Indiana – 7:00 pm EDT

• Milwaukee continues it’s epic failure to defend big men. Al Horford was the latest recipient of a huge game against the Bucks and Roy Hibbert could be in line for one tonight. I wouldn’t overpay for Hibbert, but if his price is decent, the matchup is there. I also like Paul George in this one as his price has dropped because of their blowouts the last two games. David West will also be a factor here, if he doesn’t play then continue to roll with Tyler Hansbrough.
• While Indiana has a solid defense, the injuries to Milwaukee could open up the door for some great value plays tonight. Ilyasova and Mbah have already been ruled out and it’s looking like Monta Ellis is very questionable as well. Brandon Jennings, J.J. Redick, and Samuel Dalembert all get a big bump in value and even though the matchups may not be there, they could be worth taking.

Oklahoma City @ Orlando – 7:00 pm EDT

• I never like these types of games because the Magic couldn’t care less about winning at this point. The Thunder have good defensive rankings all around and I really don’t trust any of the Magic players at this point. I am steering clear.
• While the Magic leave the Thunder with plenty of good matchups, this game could definitely be a blowout so I wouldn’t recommend taking any of the Thunder players unless they are underpriced today.

New York @ Toronto – 7:00 pm EDT

• The Knicks have been good defensively this season, but have really dropped in the rankings over their last 10 games and without Chandler, they don’t have many bodies that can protect the rim. I think Kyle Lowry, Rudy Gay, and Jonas Valanciunas all make pretty decent plays today with my favorite being Lowry. I think he broke out of his slump last game and should have his way with Felton.
• The Raptors make my job easy. They are really good at defending PG, SF, and Center and struggle against SG and PF. This doesn’t really bode too well for the Knicks though because their starting SG and PF aren’t great fantasy options. I would possibly take a shot with Carmelo if you can find him for really cheap after coming back from his injury.

Portland @ Atlanta – 7:30 pm EDT

• Portland put a beating on the Bulls last night and now have another game tonight. I think that bodes well for the Hawks’ fantasy value. Portland is pretty average defensively and the three studs of the Hawks all could have nice games. I think Al Horford will probably be a bit pricey today and if he is, I think Josh Smith has just as much upside tonight anyway.
• I’m not sure what we can expect from the Blazers tonight after their big win last night. They typically aren’t a very good road team, but with the way LaMarcus Aldridge is playing right now, they should be competitive. Both Aldridge and Lillard could be good plays if the price is right.

Detroit @ Miami – 7:30 pm EDT

• Miami has had a couple of close games in a row, but I don’t expect that to be the case tonight. They should absolutely dominate the Pistons and with so many options tonight, I would stay away from this game altogether unless you want to take Lebron on a site like FanDuel.

Memphis @ New Orleans – 8:00 pm EDT

• This game should be a low scoring, grind it out type of game. Memphis is crazy good on defense and New Orleans isn’t typically a team that you look to for fantasy production. I’m not high on any of the Hornets tonight.
• New Orleans has some holes defensively and there are a couple of decent plays on the Grizzlies tonight. Marc Gasol should have his way inside and fill up the stat sheet like he often does and Mike Conley makes a good play as well. He is much quicker than Vasquez.

Cleveland @ Houston – 8:00 pm EDT

• Cleveland is not a good defensive team and rank in the bottom third of the league against every position except for Center. Jeremy Lin, James Harden, and Chandler Parsons all have good matchups, but be a little careful, this one could be over early.
• I don’t know if this has happened all season long, but Houston’s last 10 game rankings have two rankings in the RED! Could this be a new Houston team? I doubt it, but the Cavs aren’t exactly a powerhouse on offense. You could take a chance on Shaun Livingston and Tristan Thompson, but they are both pretty risky.

Boston @ Dallas – 8:30 pm EDT

• This should be a close game. Boston has been good against PG’s this season thanks to the defense of Avery Bradley, however the rest of their defense is just average. I like the matchup for O.J. Mayo tonight, he usually plays much better at home and should be able to post up the smaller Celtic guards.
• For Boston, they have positive matchups galore. There aren’t really any bad plays on Boston tonight, but they can’t all have good games. I think Paul Pierce should put up some good numbers against Marion and/or Crowder. I could see Kevin Garnett having a good game as well.

Utah @ San Antonio – 8:30 pm EDT

• The Jazz have never been good against the Spurs and the fact that they have been playing terrible basketball lately doesn’t help. I am a Jazz fan and I think this could be the biggest blowout of the night. That being said, Utah struggles against PG, SG, and PF so I could see Danny Green and Tim Duncan having good games.
• On the Jazz, it’s really hard to recommend taking anyone outside of Gordon Hayward. They have too many bigs that are all sharing minutes and Mo Williams hasn’t been playing that well.

Minnesota @ Phoenix – 10:00 pm EDT

• I always like it when two bad teams face each other, seems to be good for fantasy numbers. If you are only looking at the last 10 game rankings for Minnesota, you would think to target SF and Center against them, but those rankings are due to the fact that Kirilenko and Pekovic have been out. Now that they are back, those rankings just don’t apply. For the Suns, I think Goran Dragic has a big game against Rubio and it looks like Jermaine O’Neal is going to be out tonight so that opens up some extra minutes for their other bigs.
• On the other side, Phoenix really struggles against Centers and will be very undersized tonight. That makes Nikola Pekovic a great play, but he is in a back to back situation and just coming off of an injury. I still like him, but he may get a few less minutes. I also like Ricky Rubio tonight, he is finally affordable on most sites and should rack up the assists.

Washington @ L.A.Lakers – 10:30 pm EDT

• The Wizards have been playing some good basketball and a lot of that is thanks to their defense. They only have one ranking in the bottom half of the league and that’s against PG’s. It’s tough to say what to expect from the Lakers offensively because they are getting Pau Gasol back so that clouds up the minutes for all of their bigs. I would maybe take a shot on Steve Nash, but he has been playing well and is a bit pricey for him.
• On the Wizards side of the ball, John Wall should have a monster night against the league’s worst defense against PG’s. He should be able to push the ball all night and continue his hot streak.