NBA Daily Grind Down: Tuesday 2/19

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-02-19 18:06:32

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article is going to give you an in-depth analysis on every game each night (3 games minimum). This article will give you defense vs. position rankings and make notes on where you can exploit these matchups. Tonight we have 9 games on the schedule and plenty of favorable matchups.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
2) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Charlotte vs. Orlando – 7:00 pm EST

• The last 10 numbers show that Charlotte has been playing better defense lately, but are still in the bottom half of the league against all positions. Look for Nikola Vucevic to take advantage inside and considering the struggles Charlotte has had against SG’s, you might want to look at taking either J.J. Redick or Aaron Afflalo.
• It could be a big night for Byron Mullens as the Magic have struggled to contain opposing Centers all season long (ranked 28th). Kemba Walker also looks to have a good matchup, but typically doesn’t play as well on the road as he does at home, so take him with caution.

Toronto vs. Washington – 7:00 pm EST

• Toronto has had a revolving door at the Center position this season so it’s hard to trust the season ranking. I expect the last 10 average to be much closer to what their ranking actually should be. With that said, the matchup that looks the most enticing is for Nene Hilario. He could have a big night as he has really been playing well and Toronto has struggled against PF’s.
• On the other side of the ball, Washington hasn’t been great defensively this season, but are playing a little bit better over their last 10. I would target Rudy Gay and possibly Kyle Lowry tonight for the Raptors.

Memphis vs. Detroit – 7:30 pm EST

• Memphis has some really impressive defensive rankings. They seem to contain all opposing players which makes it hard to recommend taking any of the Pistons. Monroe probably has the best shot of having a good game, but he has been playing so well lately that his price is going to be a little too high for this matchup.
• Detroit’s ranking against PG’s has dropped over the last ten games, most likely due to the fact that Jose Calderon isn’t quite as good of a defender as Brandon Knight is. Taking that into account, Mike Conley could have a decent game. I would also consider taking Marc Gasol, the Pistons have really struggled against Centers all season long.

Milwaukee vs. Brooklyn – 7:30 pm EST

• Milwaukee has been awful defending big men, especially lately. I expect the Nets to go inside to Brook Lopez a lot in this one. While he doesn’t get you a ton of rebounds, his scoring should be enough to make him worth taking. As for the rest of the Nets, Joe Johnson is the only other matchup I like, he has a big size advantage over Monta and has a good post up game.
• The Nets have been very good defensively this season and with the inconsistency of the Bucks backcourt, it’s hard to like either Monta Ellis or Brandon Jennings. Stay away from Ilyasova as well as Reggie Evans makes his living on rebounding and defense.

Chicago vs. New Orleans – 8:00 pm EST

• It’s hard to find a weak spot in the Chicago defense and even though they have struggled against PF’s and C’s in the last 10 games, I wouldn’t put too much stock into those numbers. Their defense is solid all around and having Kirk Hinrich back only makes their defense better. I would stay away from the Hornets players tonight.
• New Orleans is ranked in the bottom half of the league against every position except for PF so there could be some matchups to exploit here. Luol Deng is looking like the most likely candidate for a big night as the Hornets are ranked 27th overall against SF’s. It also never hurts that Deng gets plenty of minutes every night.

Boston vs. Denver – 9:00 pm EST

• There was a time this season when Boston was ranked in the bottom 5 teams against Centers. That has clearly changed and is directly related to Kevin Garnett recent play. So I wouldn’t take a gamble on either of the Nuggets Centers, however, with the injuries to the Celtics big men, look for Kenneth Faried to take advantage and continue his good performance from the Rising Stars game. He also plays much better at home than he does on the road.
• You would think having Andre Iguodala on your team would make your team rank in the top half against at least one position, but with the way the Nuggets play that is not the case. Matchups for the Celtics look good across the board, but Kevin Garnett gets the nod as the best play (Denver’s ranked 30th against Centers). Avery Bradley could also make a good play with his increased minutes.

Golden State vs. Utah – 9:00 pm EST

• Golden State’s defense is even worse than Denver’s defense and there is a lot to love about the Jazz players tonight, especially considering the fact that they play at home. Even though the matchups are pretty equal across the board, target Al Jefferson over the other Jazz players. He plays great at home and typically plays better against slower Centers (there aren’t many as slow as Andrew Bogut).
• The rankings show that the Jazz are good at defending all positions except for PG and PF which makes sense because the Jazz use the old man rotation of Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson at PG and have an undersized PF in Paul Millsap. That’s good news for the Warriors as their best two players Stephen Curry and David Lee happen to play those two positions.

Phoenix vs. Portland – 10:00 pm EST

• LaMarcus Aldridge is probably going to cost you a pretty penny, but he could be worth it tonight as Phoenix ranks 28th against opposing PF’s. The Suns have also been struggling to stop PG’s in their last 10 games and I expect Damian Lillard to come out refreshed after his All-Star break.
• While the Blazers have a below average defense against all positions, the Suns have been playing such bad basketball lately that it’s hard to recommend taking any of them. If you have to take a chance on one of them, Marcin Gortat could put up a good game as the Blazers have really struggled against Centers lately.

San Antonio vs. Sacramento – 10:00 pm EST

• San Antonio’s defense is solid all around. And that’s even with half of their team being hurt. Trust the numbers on this one and stay away from Sacramento’s players unless you can take DeMarcus Cousins or Isaiah Thomas for a big discount.
• I think it’s safe to say that Pop isn’t going to be sitting any of his players with a last second scratch, but with Pop you never really know. Tony Parker has been playing some great basketball lately and has a dream matchup against the Kings who rank dead last against opposing Point Guards. If this game can stay fairly close, Parker could be in for a monster night.