NBA Daily Punts: January 20th, 2014
When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should safely reach value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.
I’m going to roll with a different format today, separating the three major sites (FD, DS, DK) into their own sections, instead of listing players by position. While the analysis for each player won’t be as heavy, I’ll get into some site-specific plays that I may not have listed in the prior format. Let me know what you guys think!
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Guards
Ramon Sessions – With Kemba Walker out for at least a few weeks, Ramon Sessions will see a big bump in playing time/production and is still priced like a backup at just $4,200. He posted an uninspiring line in 38 minutes on Saturday against the Heat, but I’m willing to overlook that due to the opponent. Today’s match-up isn’t great either, but Sessions is pretty much a must-play thanks to his price if you’re in the early only leagues on FD.
Bradley Beal – Beal hasn’t had the same type of fantasy success recently as he had earlier in the season, which explains why he’s priced at just $5,500. However, with the Sixers coming to town today, Beal will have his best chance in awhile to put up a big game. He’s been playing right around the 30 minute mark recently, which is a dip from what he was seeing earlier in the season when healthy, and the Wiz having both Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster healthy also hurts Beal’s value. That being said, it’s the Sixers were talking about, so he’s GPP worthy material today.
Jose Calderon – He’s been dealing with a knee injury recently, but it didn’t seem like a problem for him on Saturday night. The Blazers got red-hot in that match-up and blew the Mavs out of the water, which explains the lack of playing time for all of the starters. He’ll have the defensively challenged Kyrie Irving on him today, and is priced at just $5,200.
D.J. Augustin and Kirk Hinrich – It’s tough to decide between the two even with the back-up being $900 more expensive then the starter. Augustine sits at $5,600 and although he’s hard to trust in cash games due to him splitting the PG duties, he’s definitely in play as a GPP option. Hinrich is probably the safer cash game play for just $4,700, considering the minutes between these two aren’t much different. Augustine offers higher upside, but for the price, Hinrich seems to have the higher floor.
J.J. Redick – This game should be pretty fast paced and Redick seems to be back to his normal role, with Saturday’s 28 minute effort being a cause of a blowout. While the Detroit back-court is worth picking on, they defend the SG spot much better then they do the PG position, so I’m still not sure I’d roster Redick in a cash game, even at just $5,400. He is a nice GPP option who will probably be somewhat overlooked.
Forwards/Centers
Shawn Marion – The Matrix is still under-priced on FanDuel, a theme that has continued on for the past few weeks. He’s a safe cash game play, but he also has nice GPP upside considering the price ($5,000). While Cleveland just recently acquired Luol Deng, a pretty solid defender, the Cavs are still just 19th against the SF position over the last two weeks (29th on the season). With a 1.5 spread and a 209 O/U, Marion doesn’t seem in danger of sitting late in the contest.
Ryan Kelly – As the starter on Sunday, Kelly posted 17 points and 5 boards in 37 minutes of playing time against Toronto. If he can cross the 30 minute threshold again (which seems likely after Sunday’s game), he’ll have no trouble paying off his $3,900 price tag, even in a tough match-up against the Bulls.
Al-Farouq Aminu – The Pelicans are still dealing with injuries to Jason Smith and Ryan Anderson, which could lean to Aminu seeing some more time at PF. Aminu is capable of huge rebounding totals and is always a threat to rack up blocks/steals when he’s on the floor, so I like him in both cash games and GPP’s for $4,900. I don’t love the match-up but it’s hard to argue with the combination of playing time and upside.
Martell Wesbter – It’s the Sixers. Everyone is in play. I wouldn’t use Webster in cash games but he carries nice upside for his $4,100 price tag if he can cross the 30 minute mark. If you really like the rest of your lineup and you end up with around $4,100 for a SF in a cash game, I feel pretty good about his chances to put up a 20-25 fantasy point effort. I mean c’mon, it’s the Sixers.
Tyson Chandler – In the Knicks first game without Kenyon Martin and Amar’e Stoudemire, Chandler played 37 minutes and crossed the 30 FP mark against the Clippers. He’ll take on the underwhelming Brooklyn front-court and should control the glass pretty easily in this one. Chandler should get to the 30 FP mark again today and he’s by far my favorite value play at center in the early leagues for $5,000.
DraftStreet
Guards
Ramon Sessions – With the way DraftStreet updates their player salaries, the obvious value plays don’t stay under-priced for long, so play Sessions for just about $7,400 while you can. He’ll play 35+ minutes and I’d be shocked if he didn’t hit 3x value today. There is no reason not to roster him in cash games, and he’s in all of my GPP lineups at this point as well, since it’s tough to find value on DS and Sessions opens up a lot of cap. Fade at your own risk.
Jimmy Butler – The Sixers on Saturday and the Lakers on Monday? The Bulls have hit the fantasy jackpot! Butler is priced considerably higher then Sessions, but for $11,259 he’s still priced a little lower then he should be in this match-up. He’s priced higher then your typical value play, but it’s much harder to find under-priced players here then on the other major sites. The Lakers really struggle to defend guards (they are dead last against SG’s on the season and over the last 15 days), so Butler has huge upside considering Thibs is willing to play him as long as he has two legs and two arms still attached to his body.
Jose Calderon – His price has fallen due to recent inconsistency mixed with an injury, but this could be a good time to hop back on the Calderon train. He gets a match-up with the defensive sieve otherwise known as Uncle Drew (the Cavs are 29th against PG’s on the season, 25th over the past 15 days), and with this game expected to be both close and high-scoring, Calderon should see his normal allotment of playing time. He’s priced at just $9,227, so he doesn’t need to do all that much to return value.
Brian Roberts – Roberts is now an afterthought for some with Tyreke Evans back in action, but he should still continue to be a big part of the Pelicans rotation as long as Jrue Holiday remains out. With injuries to some important front-court pieces, the Pelicans will be forced to play Tyreke at the SF spot more often, leaving the back-court duties to Roberts and Gordon. His upside isn’t real high even with 30+ minutes, but he doesn’t need a big game with a price tag of just $7,675.
Forwards/Centers
Ryan Kelly – Kelly is currently the cheapest available player on the Lakers at just $5,418, and he’ll be in basically all of my cash game lineups for that price. In his first start on Sunday, he posted 17/5 with two assists and two steals, and played a career-high 37 minutes. After playing 34 minutes of the bench in Friday’s game, he should crack the 30 minute mark again tonight and will easily pay off his price. Kelly and Sessions are the two cheap plays I’ll have the most exposure to on DraftStreet today.
Andrea Bargnani – Bargnani is center eligible on DraftStreet and like Tyson Chandler, he will be playing big minutes until the Knicks front-court gets back to full strength. He played 36 minutes in the Knicks first game without Martin/Stoudemire, and he can be expected to approach that number again today. With that type of run, it’s hard not to like Bargnani for $9,161 even on a day with plenty of strong plays at the center position.
Mike Dunleavy – The Lakers have been really struggling with the SF position lately (29th against the position over the past 15 days), and Dunleavy will want to get it going again after playing just 18 minutes in Saturday’s blowout over Philly. His price has come down a lot recently, but he’s still playing pretty big minutes with Luol Deng out of town despite a few poor recent performances. While I’ll probably be going a bit cheaper with Kelly in most of my cash game lineups, but Dunleavy could be a really nice against the grain play (priced at $7,984) against the up-tempo Lakers if he gets hot from downtown.
David West – He’s more of a mid-priced guy then a value play, but he falls somewhere in the middle with his $11,328 price tag. I don’t really like any of the options at forward around the 11K mark until you get up to Chandler Parsons just over 12K, so if you need a forward in this price range (and can’t fit Parsons), West might be your best bet for a 25-30 FP game. He’ll be matched up with David Lee, who can certainly get it going offensively but tends to struggle on the defensive end at times. The Warriors are 27th against PF’s over the last 15 days, and with Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson (two above-average defenders) shadowing Paul George and Lance Stephenson, there could be some extra looks for the Indiana bigs in this one.
DraftKings
Guards
Ramon Sessions – Once again, he’s the top option if you want to punt a guard spot tonight. He’s actually priced $200 above the BBB cutoff at $4,700, but he’s still a nice play even in a very tough match-up with Kyle Lowry.
Tyreke Evans – For some reason, Evans is priced just $100 more then Sessions at $4,800. Before he missed a few games with an injury, Evans was priced between $6,000-$7,000 and was really on fire right before the month of January started. In his return on Saturday night, Evans played 31 minutes and posted 22 DK points, but I’m expecting a little more tonight. Jrue Holiday is out and it’s not like Brian Roberts is going to run the point all night, so Evans is a nice play tonight even in a tough match-up. I wouldn’t normally target him on the road against Memphis (the Hornets receive a nice boost from the home scorekeepers, especially in the assist category), but he’s hard to resist at this price. It seems like a bit of a trap, but I can’t ignore the upside and the positional flexibility Evans has.
Courtney Lee – Throw this play out the window if Tony Allen returns tonight, but Lee is in a nice spot if he gets the start. He’s priced at just $4,300 and most likely will have Eric Gordon on him for a good part of the game, which bodes well for Lee. It’s tough to target games like this with a few high O/U games out there, but I don’t mind Lee as long as Allen doesn’t make his return. He can score in bunches and can hold his own defensively, but he doesn’t offer much outside of that which keeps his upside rather limited.
Mario Chalmers – Chalmers is back to playing a full compliment of minutes and is still under-priced at DK for just $3,900. That’s a very nice price for a player that should see 35+ minutes, and it won’t be long before he’s back in the 5K range. I’d expect somewhere around 25 FP’s for Chalmers tonight, which is all you need out of a player in his salary range.
Mike Dunleavy – He’s priced at just $4,000 and on a site that awards a 3PT bonus, he’s a really nice option that offers multiple positional eligibility. The Lakers tend to give up a lot of open looks from 3PT land, and Dunleavy will want to get back on the right foot after posting pedestrian stat lines in his past few games.
Brian Roberts – Roberts is still playing a big role with Holiday out of the lineup, even with the return of Tyreke. The upside is limited but for $3,900, he has a really good chance to return value considering he’s still going to play 30+ minutes. That said, I’d probably lean towards Chalmers if I had to pick between the two.
Forwards/Centers
Ryan Kelly – For minimum price, you aren’t going to do any better then Kelly tonight. He’s almost guaranteed 20 FP’s if he can play at least 30 minutes tonight, and he could potentially match the 37 minutes he played on Sunday. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him approach 30 FP’s, which is something that usually can’t be said for minimum priced players.
DeMarre Carroll – This choice isn’t as much about the player as it is the price. Carroll is locked into big minutes in the Hawks rotation, but his price has fallen all the way to $3,300. That is a price he’ll pay off tonight since he’ll be needed to shadow LeBron all game, as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. The last time his price fell into this range (January 3rd and 4th), he posted back-to-back 30 FP games.
James Johnson – Still priced at just $3,900, Johnson is as solid of a GPP gamble as you’ll find tonight. He’s got 45 FP upside when he puts it all together, even on nights that he doesn’t play more then 28-30 minutes. His value would take a hit if Tony Allen returns, but I’ll certainly have him in a few GPP lineups if not. He contributes in pretty much every statistical category and can post some huge lines when he quickly racks up blocks and steals.
Josh McRoberts – He’s center eligible on DK which is a nice bonus, and like DeMarre Carroll, he’s priced too low to ignore even though the upside isn’t terribly high. He’s played 38 and 36 minutes in his last two games, and while the production hasn’t been overwhelming, McBob is still getting the job done from a salary standpoint. If you just need 20-25 FP’s to fill out your roster, McRoberts can get the job done.
Martell Webster – A match-up with the Sixers and a 3PT bonus? Sounds pretty good for just $4,100, even if the minutes are still inconsistent. He’ll need an injury to Beal or Ariza to get back to his early season numbers, but he could see some extra run off the bench tonight if he gets hot from 3PT range. The Sixers defend the 3PT line about as bad as any team in the NBA, so that’s definitely a possibility for any of the Wizards guards/forwards.